本文選題：熱浪 + 早期預警系統(tǒng)�。� 參考：《環(huán)境與健康雜志》2014年05期

【摘要】：目的分析和評估高溫熱浪與健康風險早期預警系統(tǒng)在南京市的試運行情況。方法分析2013年7月15日至9月30日預警模型發(fā)出的預警信號數(shù),比較預警信號與試點醫(yī)院同期門急診、住院病例的相關性,以中暑病例評估模型的靈敏度和錯誤預警率。結果觀察期間共發(fā)出預警信號170條,平均每日2.18條,心腦血管疾病、呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病、兒童呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病、中暑、總健康風險各占信號總數(shù)的22.9%(39/170),17.6%(30/170),18.8%(32/170),17.6%(30/170),22.9%(39/170)。不同預警級別的兒童呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病門急診和住院病例數(shù)差異均有統(tǒng)計學意義(P0.05),I級和II級預警的就診數(shù)均高于0級(P0.05或P0.01);不同預警級別的呼吸系統(tǒng)和心腦血管疾病門急診和住院病例差異均無統(tǒng)計學意義(P0.05)。各項健康風險預警與當日氣象高溫預警均呈正相關(rs值為0.650~0.724,P0.01)。中暑預警靈敏度為72.7%(8/11),中暑錯誤預警率為34.9%(22/63)。結論預警系統(tǒng)信號發(fā)出及時,運行狀況良好,對兒童呼吸系統(tǒng)發(fā)病和中暑的預警準確率較高,但仍需進一步調整和完善。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze and evaluate the early warning system of high temperature heat wave and health risk in Nanjing. Methods the number of early warning signals issued by the early warning model from July 15 to September 30, 2013 was analyzed, and the correlation between the early warning signals and the outpatient and emergency cases in the pilot hospital was compared, and the sensitivity and error warning rate of the assessment model of heatstroke cases were analyzed. Results during the observation period, 170 early warning signals were issued, with an average of 2.18 per day. Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, children's respiratory diseases, heat stroke, and total health risks accounted for 22.9- 39 / 170 / 17.60% of the total signals. There were statistically significant differences in the number of outpatient and emergency cases and hospitalized cases of respiratory diseases in children with different warning levels. The number of visits for early warning of grade I and II was higher than that of grade 0 (P0.05 or P0.01), and the respiratory system and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases of different warning levels were higher than those of grade 0 (P0.05) or P0.01 (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference between outpatient and inpatients (P 0.05). There was a positive correlation between the health risk early warning and the meteorological high temperature warning on the same day. The sensitivity of heatstroke warning is 72.7% and the warning rate of heatstroke error is 34.9%. Conclusion the early warning system is in good condition and the warning accuracy of children's respiratory system and heatstroke is higher, but it still needs to be adjusted and perfected.
【作者單位】： 江蘇省疾病預防控制中心環(huán)境疾病防制所;中國疾病預防控制中心環(huán)境與健康相關產品安全所;
【基金】：國家重大科學研究計劃(2012CB955502) WHO/UNDP/GEF“適應氣候變化保護人類健康”項目(QH1103) 國家空氣污染與疾病監(jiān)測項目(HJ01003)
【分類號】：R188

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