發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-23 06:33

  本文選題：手足口病　切入點(diǎn)：貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)　出處：《地球信息科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年08期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：手足口病是一種常見的傳染病,以往的研究表明該疾病與氣象、環(huán)境和社會經(jīng)濟(jì)等因素相關(guān)聯(lián),其影響關(guān)系復(fù)雜,而疾病本身體現(xiàn)出較強(qiáng)的區(qū)域聚集性,采用普通的線性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)建模方法無法捕捉影響因素的復(fù)雜性及空間聚集性。因此,本文以山東省為例,在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了采用貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)建模方法研究手足口病的發(fā)病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與氣象、土地利用、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)及空氣污染等要素間的關(guān)系,并通過引入空間掃描統(tǒng)計(jì)聚集結(jié)果,將空間聚集引入到貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型加強(qiáng)其空間推理功能,減少模型的偏差,提高評估的精度。結(jié)果表明,本文建立的手足口病空間貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模型具有較高的估計(jì)效果,引入的空間聚集性較好地融入到貝葉斯概率推理模型中,合理建立預(yù)測因子同手足口病發(fā)病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之間的關(guān)系。通過對建模結(jié)果的解譯,分析了手足口病的發(fā)病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響因素,特別是氣候、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)及空氣污染的影響。本文的空間貝葉斯建模方法及研究結(jié)果對手足口病暴發(fā)的防控預(yù)警具有重要的意義。
[Abstract]:Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease. Previous studies have shown that the disease is associated with meteorological, environmental and socio-economic factors. The common linear risk modeling method can not capture the complexity and spatial aggregation of influencing factors. Therefore, this paper takes Shandong Province as an example, on the basis of previous studies, The Bayesian network comprehensive risk modeling method is proposed to study the relationship between the incidence risk of HFMD and meteorological, land use, social economy and air pollution. The spatial aggregation is introduced to Bayesian network model to enhance its spatial reasoning function, to reduce the deviation of the model and to improve the accuracy of evaluation. The results show that the proposed spatial Bayesian network risk model for hand, foot and mouth disease has a high estimation effect. The spatial aggregation is well integrated into the Bayesian probability inference model, and the relationship between the predictive factors and the risk of HFMD is reasonably established. Through the interpretation of the modeling results, the influencing factors of HFMD risk are analyzed. Especially the effects of climate, social economy and air pollution. The spatial Bayesian modeling method and its results are of great significance to the prevention and control of HFMD outbreaks.
【作者單位】： 中國科學(xué)院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所資源與環(huán)境信息系統(tǒng)國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;中國科學(xué)院大學(xué);
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41471376、41171344) 上海市大氣顆粒物污染防治重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室開放課題資助
【分類號】：R181.3;R725.1

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