【摘要】：艾滋病是世界性重大公共衛(wèi)生問題和社會問題，其傳播很大程度上與人群的個人行為、經(jīng)濟和社會政策密切相關(guān)，且至今在醫(yī)學(xué)界還沒有找到可以治愈這種疾病的藥物，因此綜合防治是目前對付艾滋病的最好手段。如何準(zhǔn)確的綜合評價各地的防治情況，對提高艾滋病防治資源利用效率和艾滋病綜合防治工作質(zhì)量具有重大的現(xiàn)實意義，目前尚未有比較成熟的綜合評價體系和方法。 本文在采用文獻復(fù)習(xí)法和三輪專家咨詢的基礎(chǔ)上，擬定了一套艾滋病防治績效綜合評價指標(biāo)體系，第三輪專家咨詢結(jié)合層次分析法給各級指標(biāo)賦予權(quán)重；以重慶市39個區(qū)縣為評價對象，收集各個區(qū)縣從2006年到2012年這七年間的三級指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)進行評價分析。為克服單一評價方法的片面性，本文運用了Z分值法、Topsis法、秩和比法、密切值法、加權(quán)線性綜合指數(shù)法、功效系數(shù)法、混合綜合指數(shù)法7種綜合評價的方法對各個區(qū)縣的艾滋病防治工作進行綜合評價。在此基礎(chǔ)上，，本文引入了一種新的評價方法：系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)描述方法，旨在用全新的思路來進行綜合評價。 本文建立了一套由2個一級指標(biāo)、6個二級指標(biāo)和31個三級指標(biāo)組成的艾滋病防治綜合評價指標(biāo)體系；專家對各級指標(biāo)的等級打分，均通過了一致性檢驗。在對39個區(qū)縣7年的防治工作進行評價時，首先采用了7種傳統(tǒng)綜合評價方法。7種傳統(tǒng)綜合評價結(jié)果顯示，7種方法的排序結(jié)果一致性較差，運用Kendall一致性檢驗對各個評分結(jié)果進行兩兩檢驗，挑選出W值最大的評價方法進行綜合重排序評價，最終選定了Z分值法、密切值法、Topsis法進行綜合重排序評價。然后將重慶市各個區(qū)縣看作一個區(qū)域系統(tǒng)，運用系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)描述方法對其進行分析，以各區(qū)域的狀態(tài)值作為分類指標(biāo)，結(jié)合K-means聚類法將區(qū)域系統(tǒng)聚為三類，并將三大類區(qū)域的指標(biāo)差異進行了分析描述。 結(jié)果表明，借助系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)描述方法的核函數(shù)工具和尺度工具，以系統(tǒng)的角度去分析各區(qū)域的艾滋病防治工作，其分類結(jié)果與傳統(tǒng)的評價方法有較好的一致性，表明系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)描述方法能夠有效的運用于艾滋病防治工作的評價，為今后的艾滋病防治工作評價提供了一種新的評價思路和方法。
[Abstract]:AIDS is a major public health and social problem in the world, and its spread is largely related to the individual behavior, economic and social policies of the population, and no medicine has yet been found in the medical profession to cure the disease. Therefore, comprehensive prevention and treatment is the best way to deal with AIDS. It is of great practical significance to evaluate the prevention and cure situation in various places accurately. It is of great practical significance to improve the utilization efficiency of AIDS prevention and control resources and the quality of comprehensive prevention and treatment of AIDS. At present, there is not yet a mature comprehensive evaluation system and method. On the basis of literature review method and three rounds of expert consultation, this paper draws up a set of comprehensive evaluation index system of AIDS prevention and control performance. The third round of expert consultation combined with analytic hierarchy process gives weight to all levels of indicators. Taking 39 districts and counties of Chongqing as the evaluation object, the data of three level indexes from 2006 to 2012 were collected for evaluation and analysis. In order to overcome the one-sidedness of the single evaluation method, this paper uses the Z score method and Topsis method, the rank sum ratio method, the close value method, the weighted linear comprehensive index method, the efficacy coefficient method. Seven comprehensive evaluation methods were used to evaluate the prevention and treatment of AIDS in all districts and counties. On this basis, a new evaluation method, system state description method, is introduced in this paper. In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation index system of AIDS prevention and treatment is established, which is composed of two first-grade indexes, six second-class indexes and 31 third-level indexes. In the evaluation of prevention and control work in 39 districts and counties for 7 years, the results of 7 kinds of traditional comprehensive evaluation methods and 7 kinds of traditional comprehensive evaluation methods show that the ranking results of seven methods are poor. The Kendall consistency test is used to test the results of each score, and the evaluation method with the largest W value is selected for comprehensive reorder evaluation. Finally, the Z score method and the close value method are selected to carry out the comprehensive reordering evaluation. Then every district and county in Chongqing is regarded as a regional system, and the system state description method is used to analyze the system. The state value of each region is taken as the classification index, and the regional system is grouped into three categories with K-means clustering method. The index differences of the three major regions are analyzed and described. The results show that with the help of kernel function and scale tools of the system state description method, the AIDS prevention and control work in various regions is analyzed from a systematic perspective. The classification results are in good agreement with the traditional evaluation methods. The results show that the system state description method can be effectively applied to the evaluation of AIDS prevention and control, and provides a new evaluation method for the future evaluation of AIDS prevention and treatment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：R512.91

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