【摘要】：隨著我國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)的發(fā)展和網(wǎng)民規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大,使得社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)上信息傳播具備了一些新特性如交互性強(qiáng)、傳播速度快、虛擬性強(qiáng)等,導(dǎo)致網(wǎng)絡(luò)中大量的虛假信息泛濫,造謠和傳謠也日漸成為一種常態(tài)化的輿論運(yùn)動(dòng),并在微博等社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺(tái)上被疊加和放大,導(dǎo)致一個(gè)接一個(gè)的謠言沖擊波出現(xiàn),不利于事態(tài)的發(fā)展,如果任由謠言繼續(xù)發(fā)展,很有可能導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)實(shí)中人心不穩(wěn)、社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩不安。因此,揭露謠言在網(wǎng)絡(luò)中傳播的規(guī)律及特性,通過對(duì)比仿真各參數(shù)對(duì)謠言傳播的影響,以此提出更加科學(xué)的抑制謠言傳播的策略,并對(duì)謠言傳播效能進(jìn)行客觀合理評(píng)價(jià),實(shí)時(shí)監(jiān)控謠言的發(fā)展動(dòng)態(tài)和可能造成的后果,這些問題的解決不僅可以完善網(wǎng)絡(luò)謠言辟謠機(jī)理與傳播效能研究,還可以有效地控制謠言擴(kuò)散和減輕謠言帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和社會(huì)危害,具有重大的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文進(jìn)行的創(chuàng)新性工作如下:1.本文基于經(jīng)典的謠言傳播模型,通過加入辟謠者這一類人群建立了改進(jìn)的謠言傳播模型,即SIOR模型,并通過對(duì)比仿真經(jīng)典SIR模型和改進(jìn)的SIOR模型,得出改進(jìn)的模型可以更好的模擬謠言傳播過程。2.本文還圍繞構(gòu)建謠言的傳播效能評(píng)價(jià)體系及其權(quán)重確定展開相關(guān)工作,參照前人對(duì)謠言傳播效能評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系研究的基礎(chǔ)上,根據(jù)不同類型的謠言影響不同,按照謠言對(duì)個(gè)人、對(duì)機(jī)構(gòu)企業(yè)、對(duì)政府影響分別構(gòu)建評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和指標(biāo)量化,讓評(píng)價(jià)體系更合理、更符合實(shí)際情況,并符合一致性檢驗(yàn)要求。研究得出的主要結(jié)論有:1.經(jīng)過研究分析,本文改進(jìn)的SIOR謠言傳播模型對(duì)謠言傳播規(guī)模和時(shí)間具有一定的抑制作用,另外對(duì)謠言傳播過程中的各影響參數(shù)都一一進(jìn)行了仿真分析,得出各參數(shù)對(duì)謠言傳播過程中各類人群密度的影響,結(jié)合分析結(jié)果具體提出了一些抑制謠言傳播的策略。2.針對(duì)謠言對(duì)象的不同分別從個(gè)人、機(jī)構(gòu)和政府三個(gè)方面選個(gè)3個(gè)不同的案例,分析其謠言傳播效能情況,確定各個(gè)謠言傳播最終的影響程度,根據(jù)分析結(jié)果形成預(yù)警級(jí)別,提出相應(yīng)的抑制謠言傳播策略。
[Abstract]:With the development of Internet technology and the expansion of the scale of Internet users, the social network information dissemination has some new features such as strong interaction, fast transmission speed, strong virtual and so on, resulting in a large number of false information in the network flooding. Rumors and rumour spreading have also become a regular public opinion movement, and have been superimposed and amplified on social network platforms such as Weibo, resulting in one rumor after another, which is not conducive to the development of the situation. If rumors are allowed to continue to develop, It is likely to lead to instability and social unrest in reality. Therefore, by exposing the rules and characteristics of rumor spread in the network, comparing the influence of simulation parameters on rumor propagation, the author puts forward more scientific strategies to suppress rumor propagation, and evaluates the rumor propagation effectiveness objectively and reasonably. Real-time monitoring of the development of rumors and possible consequences, these problems can not only improve the mechanism of rumour refuting and dissemination of the effectiveness of the study. It can also effectively control the spread of rumors and reduce the economic losses and social harm caused by rumors, which has great theoretical and practical significance. The innovative work of this paper is as follows: 1. Based on the classical rumour propagation model, an improved rumour propagation model, SIOR model, is established by adding the rumour disclaimer, and the classical SIR model and the improved SIOR model are compared and simulated. The improved model can better simulate the spread of rumors. 2. Based on the previous research on the evaluation index system of rumor communication effectiveness, according to different types of rumors, according to the influence of rumor, according to the rumor to the individual, this paper also carries out the relevant work around the construction of rumor communication effectiveness evaluation system and its weight. In order to make the evaluation system more reasonable, more in line with the actual situation, and accord with the requirements of consistency test, the evaluation index system and the quantitative evaluation index system should be set up for the institutional enterprises and the government respectively. The main conclusions of the study were: 1: 1. Through the research and analysis, the improved SIOR rumor propagation model has a certain inhibitory effect on the scale and time of rumor propagation. In addition, the influence parameters in the process of rumor propagation are simulated and analyzed one by one. The effects of various parameters on the population density in the process of rumor propagation are obtained, and some strategies to suppress the spread of rumors are put forward in combination with the analysis results. According to the different target of rumor, we choose three different cases from three aspects of individual, institution and government, analyze the effectiveness of rumor communication, determine the final influence degree of each rumor, and form a warning level according to the analysis result. Put forward the corresponding strategy to suppress the spread of rumors.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：G206

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本文編號(hào)：2235745