本文選題：初級(jí)醫(yī)生 + WONCA��； 參考：《中國(guó)全科醫(yī)學(xué)》2015年17期

【摘要】：目的本研究旨在預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)初級(jí)醫(yī)生短缺情況,確定未來(lái)所需醫(yī)生崗位增加量和構(gòu)成,預(yù)測(cè)行醫(yī)規(guī)模和退休年齡改變的影響。方法根據(jù)2010年美國(guó)國(guó)家流動(dòng)醫(yī)療調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),計(jì)算流動(dòng)初級(jí)醫(yī)療服務(wù)利用情況,并根據(jù)美國(guó)人口統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)人口學(xué)改變。根據(jù)美國(guó)醫(yī)學(xué)協(xié)會(huì)Masterfile文件內(nèi)容,確定初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)生的基線數(shù)量和將在66歲退休的醫(yī)生數(shù)量。利用專業(yè)委員會(huì)和美國(guó)骨科協(xié)會(huì)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)生年產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行估算。以2015—2035年累計(jì)初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)生需求數(shù)量,減去初級(jí)醫(yī)生累計(jì)產(chǎn)量,得到初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)生短缺數(shù)量。結(jié)果截至2035年,初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)生需求量將達(dá)到44 000人。目前的初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)生產(chǎn)量將無(wú)法滿足該需求,屆時(shí)初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)生缺口將達(dá)到33 000人。以目前的醫(yī)生年產(chǎn)量,截至2035年仍需額外增加1 700個(gè)初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)生崗位。如果每一位初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)生負(fù)責(zé)的人口數(shù)量減少10%,則需要額外增加超過(guò)3 000個(gè)初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)生崗位。如果初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)生退休年齡由66歲降低到64歲,那么另外需增加2 400個(gè)崗位。結(jié)論為了防止2035年醫(yī)生缺口的出現(xiàn),初級(jí)醫(yī)療醫(yī)年生產(chǎn)量與當(dāng)前相比需增長(zhǎng)21%。以配送模式進(jìn)行的初級(jí)醫(yī)療使人口/醫(yī)生比率減小,這可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步加大醫(yī)生缺口。
[Abstract]:Objective to predict the shortage of primary doctors in the future, to determine the increase and composition of doctors' posts, and to predict the influence of the scale of medical practice and the change of retirement age. Methods the utilization of mobile primary health care services was calculated according to the data of the National Mobile Medical Survey in 2010, and the demographic changes in the future were predicted according to the data of the United States Census Bureau. According to the Masterfile document of the American Medical Association, determine the baseline number of primary care doctors and the number of doctors who will retire at the age of 66. Using data from the Professional Committee and the American Orthopaedic Association, the annual output of primary care physicians is estimated. Based on the cumulative demand for primary care doctors in 2015-2035, minus the cumulative production of primary care doctors, there is a shortage of primary care doctors. As a result, the demand for primary care doctors will reach 44,000 by 2035. Current primary care output will fall short of the demand, with a shortfall of 33,000 primary care doctors. With current annual doctor output, an additional 1,700 primary care positions will be needed by 2035. If the number of people responsible for each primary care doctor is reduced by 10 percent, more than 3,000 additional primary care jobs will be required. If the retirement age for primary care doctors were reduced from 66 to 64, an additional 2,400 jobs would be needed. Conclusion in order to prevent the doctor gap in 2035, the annual output of primary medical care needs to increase by 21% compared with the current one. Primary care in the distribution mode reduces the population / doctor ratio, which may further increase the doctor gap.
【分類號(hào)】：R192

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