本文關(guān)鍵詞：油價(jià)波動(dòng)的多樣性因素分解及其異質(zhì)性經(jīng)濟(jì)影響　出處：《新疆大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)·人文社會(huì)科學(xué)版)》2017年02期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 波動(dòng)因素時(shí)點(diǎn)分解 原油價(jià)格 異質(zhì)性影響

【摘要】：文章運(yùn)用波動(dòng)因素時(shí)點(diǎn)分解方法,分析了1994—2015年期間中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在國(guó)際原油價(jià)格波動(dòng)中的角色及其各波動(dòng)因素對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的異質(zhì)性影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)僅在個(gè)別年份對(duì)國(guó)際油價(jià)產(chǎn)生了影響,油價(jià)上升一般主要由預(yù)防需求因素引起,但其下降則包含預(yù)防需求與OECD需求兩種因素。關(guān)于各波動(dòng)因素的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響,中國(guó)需求和預(yù)防需求因素會(huì)促進(jìn)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng),而供給和OECD需求因素未對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生明顯影響。所以,區(qū)分油價(jià)波動(dòng)來源是應(yīng)對(duì)油價(jià)波動(dòng)的首要一步。
[Abstract]:The point fluctuation factor decomposition method, analysis of heterogeneity factors during the period of 1994 - 2015 Chinese economy in the international crude oil price fluctuations in the volatility of the economy and its role China. The study found that Chinese economic impact only in the individual years of international oil prices produced, mainly by the general prevention needs caused by rising oil prices, two but the fall prevention factors include demand and demand. The economic impact on the OECD volatility factors, factors and prevention of China demand China demand will promote economic growth, and the supply and demand factors of OECD did not have a significant impact on Chinese economy. Therefore, to distinguish between oil price fluctuation source is the first step to deal with price fluctuations.

【作者單位】： 西北大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“基于波動(dòng)因素時(shí)點(diǎn)分解方法的原油市場(chǎng)演化規(guī)律研究”(13CJY042) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“基于經(jīng)濟(jì)主體行為選擇的節(jié)能減排動(dòng)力機(jī)制研究”(71203179)
【分類號(hào)】：F416.22;F764.1;F124
【正文快照】： 原油價(jià)格自2003年開始頻繁波動(dòng),成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中一個(gè)重要的不穩(wěn)定變量,給世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來不確定因素。其2008年急升與2014年暴跌是否反映了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響作用,成為海外學(xué)者討論的熱點(diǎn)問題。Kilian和Hicks(2013)通過多項(xiàng)式分布滯后模型測(cè)算發(fā)現(xiàn),2000年后國(guó)際油價(jià)上升中具有中，

本文編號(hào)：1433066