【摘要】：四川省水資源具有時(shí)空分布不均衡的特點(diǎn),水旱災(zāi)害頻現(xiàn),水資源成為制約四川省農(nóng)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的瓶頸。本文以水足跡理論為基礎(chǔ),將實(shí)體水與虛擬水、本地水資源與外地水資源有效聯(lián)系,系統(tǒng)的分析四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水資源的分布狀況和利用現(xiàn)狀,為實(shí)現(xiàn)四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水資源的可持續(xù)高效利用提供理論依據(jù)。本文利用文獻(xiàn)查閱-實(shí)地調(diào)研、圖像分析法、指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)法、灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析法等研究方法,確定了四川省2001年-2011年農(nóng)產(chǎn)品單位虛擬水量,在此基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)虛擬水量、農(nóng)業(yè)虛擬水消費(fèi)量、農(nóng)業(yè)虛擬水貿(mào)易量的測(cè)算與動(dòng)態(tài)變化分析,測(cè)算了2001年-2011年四川省各市(州)的農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡,分析了四川省各市(州)近11年的農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡動(dòng)態(tài)變化；并從水足跡結(jié)構(gòu)、效益、生態(tài)安全和可持續(xù)性能四個(gè)方面構(gòu)建了農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡可持續(xù)利用評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,定量評(píng)價(jià)了四川省21個(gè)市(州)2001年-2011年的農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡,同時(shí)探究了四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素,主要研究結(jié)果如下：(1)四川省各市(州)近11年農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡量特征與動(dòng)態(tài)變化分析。①農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡量特征。以農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)虛擬水量、農(nóng)業(yè)虛擬水消費(fèi)量、農(nóng)業(yè)虛擬水貿(mào)易量和農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡量測(cè)算為基礎(chǔ),分析農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡量特征,分析結(jié)果表明：四川省2001-2011年農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡整體呈增加趨勢(shì)。農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡量在2011年達(dá)到最大值,為557.75×108m3,最小值出現(xiàn)在2001年,為452.13×108m3。人均農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡整體呈增加趨勢(shì),11年間人均農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡保持在535.92 m3-620.64 m3之間。其中農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡量最大的是成都市,其次是南充市和達(dá)州市。農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡量較大的是綿陽(yáng)市、資陽(yáng)市、宜賓市和瀘州市。農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡量較小的市(州)分別是：阿壩藏族羌族自治州(以下簡(jiǎn)稱阿壩州)、甘孜藏族自治州(以下簡(jiǎn)稱甘孜州)、攀枝花市和雅安市,2011年這四個(gè)市(州)的農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡量均小于10×108m3。②農(nóng)業(yè)水足動(dòng)態(tài)變化特征。以農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡測(cè)算數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),采用圖像分析法探究農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡動(dòng)態(tài)變化特征,研究結(jié)果表明：11年間四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡隨著年份推移呈緩慢增加趨勢(shì),成都市增幅最明顯,特別是2008年以后增幅提高,其余市(州)增幅較��；人均農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡變化趨勢(shì)與農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡的變化趨勢(shì)呈現(xiàn)一致性,人均農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡量是呈增大的趨勢(shì)變化。2001年和2005年四川省各市(州)之間人均農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡各市(州)差距不明顯,但2008年和2011年人均農(nóng)業(yè)水資源的差距變大。(2)四川省各市(州)近11年農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡可持續(xù)利用評(píng)價(jià)與分析。根據(jù)農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡的理論依據(jù),以水資源利用評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)為參照,結(jié)合實(shí)際情況對(duì)現(xiàn)有指標(biāo)進(jìn)行改進(jìn),擬定由水足跡結(jié)構(gòu)、效益、生態(tài)安全和可持續(xù)性能四類指標(biāo)組成的四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡利用效益評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,對(duì)四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡可持續(xù)利用進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)與分析,結(jié)果表明：①農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡結(jié)構(gòu)可持續(xù)特征：11年間農(nóng)業(yè)水資源進(jìn)口依賴度在0.06%-1.28%之間,自給率高達(dá)98%以上,四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水資源對(duì)外依賴度非常小,完全能夠自給自足,表現(xiàn)出較強(qiáng)的可持續(xù)性特征。②農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡效益可持續(xù)性特征：2001年-2011年,四川省各市(州)的萬(wàn)噸農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡人口密度呈明顯遞減趨勢(shì)變化,農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡土地密度呈緩慢增加的趨勢(shì)變化,對(duì)外貿(mào)易虛擬水量整體增加,表現(xiàn)出可持續(xù)性逐漸降低的特征。③農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡生態(tài)安全性：2006年、2009年、2010年和2011年農(nóng)業(yè)水資源匱乏度較高,表明安全性在逐漸降低。其中匱乏度超過(guò)100%的地區(qū)有成都市、自貢市、德陽(yáng)市、遂寧市、內(nèi)江市、南充市、眉山市、宜賓市、廣安市和資陽(yáng)市,其中成都市的農(nóng)業(yè)水資源匱乏度最嚴(yán)重,2005年-2010年均在200%以上。④農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡可持續(xù)性能：農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡可持續(xù)利用較好的年份是2004年、2007年和2008年。農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡可持續(xù)利用狀態(tài)最好的是廣安市,除了2006年和2009年沒(méi)有呈現(xiàn)可持續(xù)利用的變化趨勢(shì)之外,其余年份均呈可持續(xù)利用。農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡可持續(xù)利用最差的是攀枝花市,只有2005年呈現(xiàn)可持續(xù)利用的變化趨勢(shì)。(3)四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡變化驅(qū)動(dòng)力及水資源可持續(xù)利用戰(zhàn)略分析。①農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡變化驅(qū)動(dòng)力分析。采用DPS數(shù)據(jù)處理平臺(tái)對(duì)可能影響農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡變化的四大類因子,共9項(xiàng)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析,結(jié)果表明：對(duì)四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡變化影響最大的兩個(gè)因子分別是關(guān)聯(lián)度為0.6433的耕地復(fù)種指數(shù)和關(guān)聯(lián)度為0.6325的人口總數(shù)量,其次是水田比重和水庫(kù)蓄水總量及流動(dòng)人口對(duì)四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡有較大影響。②水資源可持續(xù)利用戰(zhàn)略分析。以四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水足跡研究結(jié)果為理論依據(jù),為實(shí)現(xiàn)四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水資源的可持續(xù)高效利用,分別從四個(gè)方面提出四川省農(nóng)業(yè)水資源可持續(xù)利用戰(zhàn)略。第一,改變水資源戰(zhàn)略,適度控制虛擬水輸出；第二,優(yōu)化農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),控制高耗水產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模；第三,發(fā)展節(jié)水農(nóng)業(yè),加強(qiáng)水資源優(yōu)化配置；第四,提高公眾保護(hù)水資源與節(jié)約水資源意識(shí)。
[Abstract]:The water resources in Sichuan Province have the characteristics of uneven distribution of time and space, and the water and drought disasters are now, and the water resources become the bottleneck of the sustainable development of the agriculture in Sichuan. Based on the theory of water footprint, this paper makes an effective connection between the physical water and the virtual water, the local water resources and the foreign water resources, and analyzes the distribution and utilization of the agricultural water resources in Sichuan Province, and provides the theoretical basis for realizing the sustainable and efficient utilization of the agricultural water resources in Sichuan. In this paper, the virtual water volume of agricultural products in Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2011 was determined by the methods of reference-field investigation, image analysis, index evaluation and grey relational analysis. On the basis of this, the virtual water volume and the consumption of the agricultural virtual water were obtained through the agricultural production. The agricultural water footprint of every city (state) in Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2011 was calculated and the dynamic changes of the agricultural water footprint in the city (state) of Sichuan Province in 2001-2011 were calculated and the dynamic changes of the agricultural virtual water trade volume were measured, and the water footprint structure and benefit were analyzed. The agricultural water footprint sustainable utilization evaluation index system is constructed in four aspects of ecological security and sustainability, and the agricultural water footprint of 21 cities (state) in Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2011 is quantitatively evaluated, and the driving factors of the agricultural water footprint in Sichuan Province are also explored. The main results are as follows: (1) The characteristics and dynamic changes of agricultural water footprint in every city (state) in Sichuan Province in the last 11 years. The characteristics of agricultural water footprint. Based on the agricultural production virtual water volume, the agricultural virtual water consumption, the agricultural virtual water trade volume and the agricultural water footprint, the characteristics of the agricultural water footprint are analyzed, and the results show that the overall agricultural water footprint in Sichuan Province in 2001-2011 has a tendency to increase. The agricultural water footprint reached its maximum in 2011, with a minimum value of 557,75-108m3, with a minimum of 452. 13-108m3. The overall agricultural water footprint per capita is increasing, and the per capita agricultural water footprint in the 11-year period is between 535. 92 m3 and 620. 64m3. The largest amount of agricultural water footprint is Chengdu, followed by Nanchong and Dazhou. The agricultural water footprint is large, which is Mianyang, Ziyang, Yibin and Luzhou. The cities (state) with small agricultural water footprint are: Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture (hereinafter referred to as Aba State), Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture (hereinafter referred to as Ganzi Prefecture), Panzhihua City and Ya 'an City, and the agricultural water footprint in the four cities (states) in 2011 is less than 10-108m3. Study on the dynamic characteristics of the water-foot of the agricultural water in china. Based on the data of the agricultural water footprint, the dynamic characteristics of the agricultural water footprint are explored by the image analysis method. The results show that the agricultural water footprint in Sichuan province has been increasing slowly over the years, and the growth rate of Chengdu is the most obvious, especially after 2008. The increase of agricultural water footprint per capita is consistent with the trend of agricultural water footprint, and the per capita agricultural water footprint is increasing. The difference between the agricultural water footprint per capita between 2001 and 2005 (state) is not obvious. However, the gap between the per capita agricultural water resources in 2008 and 2011 has changed. (2) The evaluation and analysis of the sustainable utilization of the agricultural water footprint in the city (state) of Sichuan Province in the last 11 years. according to the theoretical basis of the agricultural water footprint, the water resource utilization evaluation index is taken as a reference, the existing indexes are improved according to the actual situation, the water footprint structure and the benefit are prepared, The evaluation index system of the agricultural water footprint of Sichuan province, which is composed of four indexes of ecological security and sustainability, can be used for the evaluation and analysis of the sustainable utilization of the agricultural water footprint in Sichuan Province. The results show that: The water-footprint structure of agricultural water in Sichuan province is characterized by the following: the dependence of agricultural water resource in the period of 11 years is between 0. 06% and 1. 28%, with a high rate of over 98%. The dependence of agricultural water resources in Sichuan Province is very small, fully self-sufficient and shows a strong sustainability characteristic. Agricultural water footprint benefit sustainability characteristics: in 2001-2011, the population density of the ten thousand tons of agricultural water in various cities (state) of Sichuan province showed a marked decline trend, the land density of the agricultural water footprint changed slowly, the total volume of the foreign trade virtual water was increased, showing the characteristics of a gradual decline in sustainability. The ecological security of agricultural water footprint in China: in 2006, 2009, 2010 and 2011, the degree of water scarcity in agriculture was high, indicating that the safety was gradually decreasing. In the area of more than 100%, there are Chengdu, Zigong, Deyang, Suining, Neijiang, Nanchong, Meishan, Yibin, Guang' an and Ziyang, among which the water scarcity of agriculture in Chengdu is the most serious, and the average annual average of 2005-2010 is over 200%. The sustainability of agricultural water footprint: the sustainable use of the agricultural water footprint is 2004, 2007 and 2008. The sustainable utilization of the agricultural water footprint is the best in Guang 'an City. In addition to the trend of sustainable utilization in 2006 and 2009, the rest of the year is sustainable. The sustainable utilization of the agricultural water footprint is the Panzhihua City, and only the trend of sustainable utilization is presented in 2005. (3) The driving force of agricultural water footprint change and the sustainable utilization strategy of water resources in Sichuan Province. Analysis of the driving force of agricultural water footprint change. By using DPS data processing platform, four kinds of factors that may affect the change of agricultural water footprint are analyzed, and the results show that: The two factors that affect the change of the agricultural water footprint in Sichuan Province are the total population of the cultivated land with the degree of correlation of 0.6433 and the total population of 0.6325. The second is the specific gravity of the paddy field and the total water storage of the reservoir and the large influence of the floating population on the agricultural water footprint in Sichuan Province. Strategic analysis of the sustainable utilization of water resources in china. In order to achieve the sustainable and efficient utilization of agricultural water resources in Sichuan Province, the sustainable utilization strategy of agricultural water resources in Sichuan Province is put forward in order to realize the sustainable and efficient utilization of agricultural water resources in Sichuan Province. First, change the water resource strategy and control the output of the virtual water moderately; secondly, optimize the agricultural industrial structure and control the scale of the high-consumption water industry; thirdly, develop the water-saving agriculture and strengthen the water resource optimization configuration; and fourthly, improve the public protection water resources and save the water resources consciousness.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：S27

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