本文選題：平流層爆發(fā)性增溫 + 厄爾尼諾��； 參考：《蘭州大學(xué)》2017年博士論文

【摘要】：本文利用NCEP-NCAR再分析資料,ERA-Interim再分析資料,HadISST海溫資料,NOAA的大氣頂射出長(zhǎng)波輻射(OLR)資料,結(jié)合WACCM3模式,分析了北半球平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的持續(xù)時(shí)間和太平洋海溫異常之間的聯(lián)系。首先分析了平流層爆發(fā)性增溫出現(xiàn)的前兆。進(jìn)而分析了熱帶太平洋海溫對(duì)平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的影響。然后分析了熱帶外海溫對(duì)平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的影響。論文還深入探討了海溫通過(guò)大氣遙相關(guān)影響中高緯度大氣環(huán)流和行星波進(jìn)而影響平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的特征和機(jī)理。1.首先利用NCEP-NCAR以及ERA-Interim再分析資料,診斷分析了平流層爆發(fā)性增溫出現(xiàn)前對(duì)流層環(huán)流的差異,以及不同持續(xù)時(shí)間的爆發(fā)性增溫出現(xiàn)后對(duì)流層環(huán)流的差異。結(jié)果表明,平流層爆發(fā)性強(qiáng)增溫和弱增溫的強(qiáng)度和持續(xù)時(shí)間具有正比關(guān)系,但是強(qiáng)增溫的強(qiáng)度和持續(xù)時(shí)間之間的線性關(guān)系很強(qiáng),而弱增溫的強(qiáng)度和持續(xù)時(shí)間的線性關(guān)系相對(duì)較弱。研究表明弱增溫出現(xiàn)前上對(duì)流層的位勢(shì)高度異常類似于正相位的太平洋北美遙相關(guān)型,而強(qiáng)增溫出現(xiàn)前上對(duì)流層的位勢(shì)高度異常類似于正相位的西太平洋遙相關(guān)型;此外,強(qiáng)增溫爆發(fā)前,行星1波和行星2波的強(qiáng)度都有所增強(qiáng),而弱增溫爆發(fā)前,只有行星1波的強(qiáng)度有所增強(qiáng)。持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)的平流層爆發(fā)性增溫出現(xiàn)前伴隨著更多正相位的太平洋北美遙相關(guān)和西太平洋遙相關(guān)。相比持續(xù)時(shí)間短的強(qiáng)增溫,持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)的強(qiáng)增溫的風(fēng)速、溫度和北半球環(huán)狀模異常信號(hào)下傳的高度更低,在下平流層維持的時(shí)間更長(zhǎng)。2.利用NCEP-NCAR再分析資料,HadISST海溫資料,OLR資料,結(jié)合WACCM3模式分析了東太平洋厄爾尼諾和中太平洋厄爾尼諾相關(guān)的熱帶太平洋海溫變化對(duì)北半球冬季平流層爆發(fā)性增溫持續(xù)時(shí)間的影響。研究表明,中太平洋厄爾尼諾期間強(qiáng)增溫和弱增溫的持續(xù)時(shí)間都要小于東太平洋厄爾尼諾期間強(qiáng)增溫和弱增溫的持續(xù)時(shí)間,但是中太平洋厄爾尼諾期間強(qiáng)增溫和弱增溫的出現(xiàn)頻率與東太平洋厄爾尼諾期間強(qiáng)增溫和弱增溫的頻率相比并沒(méi)有顯著差異。分析發(fā)現(xiàn),在東太平洋厄爾尼諾期間高緯度的位勢(shì)高度常常表現(xiàn)出正相位的太平洋北美遙相關(guān)和西太平洋遙相關(guān)的特征,但是中太平洋厄爾尼諾期間中高緯度的位勢(shì)高度表現(xiàn)出負(fù)相位的西太平洋遙相關(guān)的特征。高緯度上傳的行星1波在東太平洋厄爾尼諾期間有所加強(qiáng)而在中太平洋厄爾尼諾期間有所減弱,高緯度上傳的行星波通量的增強(qiáng)又進(jìn)一步導(dǎo)致極渦的減弱,故東太平洋厄爾尼諾期間平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)于中太平洋厄爾尼諾。3.除了研究熱帶海溫對(duì)平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的影響,論文還使用HadISST數(shù)據(jù)以及NCEP-NCAR再分析資料,結(jié)合WACCM3模式,探討了熱帶外太平洋海表面溫度與冬季北半球平流層爆發(fā)性增溫之間的聯(lián)系。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),冬季北太平洋海表面溫度的第二主分量(PC2)和平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的持續(xù)時(shí)間的相關(guān)系數(shù)接近于厄爾尼諾和平流層爆發(fā)性增溫持續(xù)時(shí)間的相關(guān)系數(shù),并且PC2和爆發(fā)性增溫持續(xù)時(shí)間的相關(guān)系數(shù)大于冬季北太平洋海表面溫度的第一主分量(PC1)和爆發(fā)性增溫持續(xù)時(shí)間的相關(guān)系數(shù)。本文研究還發(fā)現(xiàn)1980年之后,平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的持續(xù)時(shí)間的時(shí)間序列和PC2的時(shí)間序列中存在周期為10-20年的振蕩,而且平流層爆發(fā)性增溫持續(xù)時(shí)間的年代際振蕩和PC2的年代際振蕩相一致。當(dāng)PC2處于正相位時(shí),冬季平流層爆發(fā)性增溫持續(xù)時(shí)間更長(zhǎng)。當(dāng)PC2處于負(fù)相位時(shí),冬季平流層爆發(fā)性增溫持續(xù)時(shí)間更短。雖然PC2海溫異常作為熱帶外海溫的異常,主要受到熱帶外大氣環(huán)流的驅(qū)動(dòng),但是WACCM3模式結(jié)果表明,PC2海溫異常,特別是在副熱帶西太平洋邊界區(qū)域的海溫異常,對(duì)大氣具有一定的反饋?zhàn)饔?副熱帶西太平洋臨近區(qū)域的海溫正異�？梢援a(chǎn)生更多的對(duì)流活動(dòng),進(jìn)而通過(guò)遙相關(guān)影響中高緯度的環(huán)流及行星波,最終對(duì)平流層爆發(fā)性增溫產(chǎn)生一定的影響。4.采用NCEP-NCAR再分析資料和HadISST海溫?cái)?shù)據(jù)研究了太平洋北美遙相關(guān)和西太平洋遙相關(guān)不同的組合對(duì)平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的持續(xù)時(shí)間的影響。結(jié)果表明當(dāng)冬季西太平洋遙相關(guān)和太平洋北美遙相關(guān)都處于正相位時(shí),平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的持續(xù)時(shí)間最長(zhǎng),而當(dāng)西太平洋遙相關(guān)和太平洋北美遙相關(guān)都處于負(fù)相位時(shí),平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的持續(xù)時(shí)間最短。另外,這兩種組合與熱帶海溫異常與西太平洋海溫異常具有密切的聯(lián)系。本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于,發(fā)現(xiàn)了雖然熱帶外海溫變率的第一模態(tài)的解釋方差較大,但是熱帶外海溫的第二模態(tài)對(duì)平流層爆發(fā)性增溫的影響大于第一模態(tài)的影響。
[Abstract]:Using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, ERA-Interim reanalysis data and HadISST SST data, NOAA the top of the atmosphere of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, the WACCM3 model, analyzes the relationship between duration of explosive stratosphere of the northern hemisphere warming and SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean. First analysis of the stratospheric sudden temperature appears. Then by precursor analysis the influence of SST in the tropical Pacific Ocean of stratospheric sudden warming. Then it analyzes the impact of tropical sea temperature of stratospheric sudden warming. The paper also discusses the characteristics and mechanism of.1. SST through influencing atmospheric remote in High Latitude Atmospheric Circulation and planetary waves affect the SSW first by NCEP-NCAR and ERA-Interim reanalysis data diagnosis, analysis of the SSW difference before the tropospheric circulation, and different duration of the explosion The difference after the tropospheric circulation of increasing temperature. The results show that the stratospheric sudden warming and strong weak warming intensity and duration is a direct relationship, but the linear relationship between the high temperature increase the intensity and duration of the strong linear relationship and weak temperature increasing the intensity and duration of the study is relatively weak. Weak increasing Pacific North American teleconnection temperature geopotential height anomalies before the upper troposphere is similar to the Yu Zheng phase, and the strong Western Pacific teleconnection pattern temperature potential before the upper troposphere height anomalies similar to the Yu Zheng phase; in addition, the high temperature increase before the outbreak of the planetary wave 1 and wave intensity have 2 planets enhanced, and weak warming before the outbreak, only the strength of the planetary wave 1 has been enhanced. The long duration of the stratospheric sudden warming appeared with more positive phase of the Pacific North American teleconnection and the Western Pacific. Related. Than the short duration of strong warming, wind speed and long duration of high temperature increase, the lower the temperature and the height of the Northern Hemisphere annular anomaly mode of signal transmission, reanalysis data in the lower stratosphere maintained longer by.2. NCEP-NCAR, HadISST SST, OLR data, analysis of the tropical Pacific SST Variations in East Pacific and El Nino in the Pacific El Nino warming duration of winter in the northern hemisphere stratospheric sudden combined with WACCM3 model. The results show that in the Pacific during El Nino strongly increasing duration of moderate weak warming are less than the eastern Pacific during El Nino strongly increasing duration of moderate weak warming, but in the Pacific during El Nino warming and strong weak growth the temperature and frequency of the East Pacific Ocean during El Nino warming and strong weak warming and no significant difference compared with the frequency analysis showed that in the East The Pacific Ocean during El Nino potential high latitude height is often characterized by the positive phase of the Pacific teleconnection North American teleconnection and the Western Pacific, but the potential of high latitude in the Pacific during El Nino in height shows the characteristics of teleconnections negative phase of the Western Pacific. The high latitude planetary wave 1 upload strengthened during the East Pacific Ocean and in the Pacific during El Nino El Nino has weakened, improve the planetary wave flux of high latitude upload further leads to a weakening of the polar vortex, the duration of the eastern Pacific during El Nino SSW longer than in the Pacific El.3. in addition to studying the impact of tropical SST of stratospheric sudden warming, the paper uses the data of HadISST and NCEP-NCAR analysis of the data, the WACCM3 model, discusses the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature in winter and North Hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming ties between the study found that the second principal component of North Pacific sea surface temperature (PC2) correlation coefficient of duration of stratospheric sudden warming of the stratosphere is close to the El Nino correlation coefficient of the duration of the explosive temperature increase, the first principal component and correlation coefficient of PC2 and explosive increase duration the temperature is greater than the winter North Pacific sea surface temperature (PC1) and the correlation coefficient of the duration of the explosive increase of temperature. The study also found that in 1980, the duration of time series of SSW of the time series and PC2 exist in the period of oscillation of 10-20 years, consistent with the decadal oscillation and stratospheric sudden warming the duration of the decadal oscillation and PC2. When the PC2 is in a positive phase, stratospheric sudden warming in winter for a longer period of time. When the PC2 is in a negative position, Stratospheric sudden warming in winter shorter duration. Although the PC2 SST anomaly as abnormal extratropical SST, driven mainly by the atmospheric circulation in the tropical, but the WACCM3 model results show that the PC2 SST anomalies, especially in the boundary region of the subtropical Western Pacific SST anomaly has certain feedback effect on the atmosphere, the SST in subtropical the Pacific Ocean near the positive anomaly can produce convective activity more, and then through the circulation and the planetary wave high latitude teleconnction influence, the stratospheric sudden warming affect the effect of.4. by using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and HadISST SST data on the duration of the Pacific North American teleconnection and Western Pacific teleconnection different combinations of Stratospheric Sudden Warming. The results show that when the winter Western Pacific teleconnection and Pacific North American teleconnection are positive Phase, duration of SSW was the longest, and when the Western Pacific teleconnection and Pacific North American teleconnection are in negative phase, the duration of SSW is the shortest. In addition, the two combination with tropical SSTA and the Western Pacific sea temperature anomaly is closely related to this paper. Innovation is that although the first mode of the tropical sea temperature variability in the interpretation of the variance is larger, but the effect of the second mode the extra tropical SST of stratospheric sudden warming effect is greater than the first mode.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P732.6;P461.2

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