基于故障樹(shù)理論的LNG船舶裝卸貨泄漏事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估
本文選題:LNG船裝卸作業(yè) 切入點(diǎn):泄漏事故 出處:《浙江海洋大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文
【摘要】:隨著液化天然氣(LNG)進(jìn)出口量的日益增大,執(zhí)行LNG船裝卸貨操作的頻率也將更加頻繁,針對(duì)LNG船安全性的研究已成為熱點(diǎn)。其裝卸作業(yè)環(huán)節(jié)是LNG海運(yùn)中至關(guān)重要的環(huán)節(jié),也是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極高的一塊。主要是因?yàn)長(zhǎng)NG船靠泊時(shí)間短、作業(yè)計(jì)劃緊、操作程序復(fù)雜,稍有不慎就會(huì)發(fā)生液貨泄漏、船員凍傷甚至火災(zāi)爆炸等事故。一旦控制不力,無(wú)論是對(duì)船舶、港口、裝卸泊位、海洋環(huán)境以及人員都將產(chǎn)生災(zāi)難性的事故后果。因此,對(duì)LNG船裝卸貨泄漏事故進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估,對(duì)于加強(qiáng)LNG船裝卸作業(yè)的安全管理,保護(hù)人員生命、健康、財(cái)產(chǎn)及海洋環(huán)境的安全有著重要意義。本文首先歸納總結(jié)了LNG固有的理化性質(zhì)和潛在危險(xiǎn)性,概述了LNG船的基本船型、裝卸作業(yè)流程及自運(yùn)營(yíng)以來(lái)發(fā)生的歷史事故;其次對(duì)LNG船裝卸貨中可能存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行危險(xiǎn)辨識(shí),主要考慮了人的不安全行為、設(shè)備故障和質(zhì)量缺陷、管理因素及周邊環(huán)境因素等;基于故障樹(shù)理論,建立以LNG船裝卸作業(yè)泄漏事故為頂事件的故障樹(shù)模型,并對(duì)其進(jìn)行定性和定量分析,求得各自的最小割集和結(jié)構(gòu)重要度系數(shù)并排序,然后將該故障樹(shù)模型應(yīng)用于實(shí)例應(yīng)用中,計(jì)算出LNG船發(fā)生裝卸作業(yè)泄漏事故的概率;同時(shí)利用事故模擬軟件,對(duì)某LNG加注站項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行LNG泄漏事故模擬,定量計(jì)算了LNG船裝卸作業(yè)發(fā)生泄漏事故后產(chǎn)生池火、云團(tuán)擴(kuò)散、蒸氣云爆炸、噴射火、閃火、BLEVE火球事故的危害程度及范圍;最后提出事故防范的建議及措施,以期為航運(yùn)管理當(dāng)局和決策者提供重要的參考依據(jù),在一定程度上降低事故的發(fā)生概率,提高LNG運(yùn)輸船的安全水平。
[Abstract]:With the increasing import and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the frequency of carrying out the loading and unloading operations of LNG ships will become more frequent, and the research on the safety of LNG ships has become a hot spot. It is also a very risky piece. It is mainly because of the short berthing time, tight operation plan, complicated operation procedure, and some accidents, such as liquid leakage, crew frostbite or even fire explosion, etc. Once the control is weak, whether it is for the ship, Port, loading and unloading berth, marine environment and personnel will have disastrous accident consequence. Therefore, the risk assessment of LNG ship loading and unloading leakage accident will strengthen the safety management of LNG ship loading and unloading operation, protect the life and health of LNG ship, The safety of property and marine environment is of great significance. Firstly, the physical and chemical properties and potential hazards of LNG are summarized, and the basic ship types, loading and unloading process and historical accidents occurring since operation of LNG are summarized. Secondly, the risk factors in loading and unloading of LNG ship are identified, which mainly consider the unsafe behavior of human, equipment failure and quality defect, management factors and surrounding environmental factors, etc. A fault tree model with leakage accident as the top event in LNG loading and unloading operation is established, and its qualitative and quantitative analysis are carried out, and their minimum cut sets and structural importance coefficients are obtained and sorted. Then, the fault tree model is applied to the application of an example. The probability of LNG ship leakage accident occurred in loading and unloading operation was calculated, and the LNG leakage accident was simulated on a LNG filling station project by using the accident simulation software, and the pool fire and cloud diffusion after the LNG ship loading and unloading accident occurred were calculated quantitatively. The harm degree and scope of BLEVE fireball accident caused by steam cloud explosion, jet fire and flash fire are put forward. Finally, some suggestions and measures are put forward to provide important reference for shipping management authorities and decision makers. To a certain extent, the probability of accidents is reduced and the safety level of LNG transporters is improved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:浙江海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號(hào)】:U698.6
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