發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-02-24 19:39

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 一帶一路 對(duì)外直接投資 產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇 實(shí)證研究　出處：《湖北大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的發(fā)展,國(guó)際直接投資在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的作用日益突出,尤其是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家在內(nèi)部產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩和資本趨于飽和的情況下,加大對(duì)東亞、東南亞、中亞、拉美等中低收入水平國(guó)家的投資成為國(guó)際直接投資的新趨勢(shì),美國(guó)在提出實(shí)施"新絲綢經(jīng)濟(jì)帶"計(jì)劃后,又主導(dǎo)簽署跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)議(TPP),俄羅斯提出實(shí)施"歐亞經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)盟"戰(zhàn)略。2013年,中國(guó)提出"一帶一路"建設(shè)和發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,作為新形勢(shì)下對(duì)外開放的重大戰(zhàn)略,是中國(guó)"走出去"戰(zhàn)略的重要組成部分,對(duì)利用國(guó)際要素資源,轉(zhuǎn)移優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)能和成熟產(chǎn)業(yè),加強(qiáng)與"一帶一路"沿線國(guó)家產(chǎn)業(yè)分工與合作,實(shí)現(xiàn)合作共贏的目標(biāo)具有重要的作用。對(duì)"一帶一路"國(guó)家的直接投資是"一帶一路"建設(shè)的核心動(dòng)力,通過(guò)投資帶動(dòng)母國(guó)和東道國(guó)的產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、技術(shù)進(jìn)步和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。隨著中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)整體競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和對(duì)外投資能力提升,2014年中國(guó)已經(jīng)成為資本凈輸出國(guó),表明中國(guó)對(duì)外直接進(jìn)入了新的階段,面臨新的形勢(shì);另一方面,"一帶一路"沿線不同區(qū)域國(guó)家在地理特征、資源稟賦、經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力、收入水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)、投資環(huán)境等方面差異明顯,直接投資面臨諸多挑戰(zhàn)。因此,面對(duì)諸多因素,如何選擇對(duì)外直接投資的產(chǎn)業(yè),實(shí)現(xiàn)既有利于國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí),又符合東道國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展需求,這正是本文研究的切入點(diǎn)。論文圍繞中國(guó)對(duì)"一帶一路"沿線國(guó)家直接投資的產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇這一主題,在結(jié)構(gòu)安排上分為七章。第一章是導(dǎo)論,首先分析"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略提出的背景及我國(guó)對(duì)沿線國(guó)家直接投資面臨的形勢(shì),明確研究的理論和實(shí)踐意義,論文的研究?jī)r(jià)值在于深入分析影響對(duì)外直接投資產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇的影響因素,為進(jìn)一步拓展對(duì)"一帶一路"直接投資提供可操作性的建議,不足之處在于涉及國(guó)家眾多,數(shù)據(jù)獲得有限,影響到部分研究結(jié)論的精確性;其次是文獻(xiàn)研究,詳細(xì)評(píng)述了國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于對(duì)外直接投資產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇、產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)及對(duì)"帶一路" 一路投資的研究,提出論文研究的切入點(diǎn);之后提出論文研究?jī)?nèi)容、研究思路及研究方法及實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑。第二章首先對(duì)"一帶一路"、對(duì)外直接投資、產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)、產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇等研究對(duì)象進(jìn)行明確的界定,其次是介紹了對(duì)外直接投資及產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇相關(guān)理論;而后是關(guān)于對(duì)外直接投資決策中對(duì)母國(guó)和東道國(guó)的產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇影響因素及機(jī)理的分析,為實(shí)證分析奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。第三章是現(xiàn)狀研究,從地區(qū)分布、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、投資環(huán)境等方面對(duì)對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)"一帶一路"沿線國(guó)家的直接投資現(xiàn)狀、產(chǎn)業(yè)基礎(chǔ)、投資環(huán)境等因素進(jìn)行分析,并將"一帶一路"沿線國(guó)家分為"核心區(qū)"、"擴(kuò)展區(qū)"、"輻射區(qū)",分析每個(gè)區(qū)域內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展特征及投資產(chǎn)業(yè)需求。第四章和第五章是實(shí)證研究,根據(jù)實(shí)證研究基本邏輯和思路,第四章檢驗(yàn)對(duì)外直接投資的"母國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇",基于2003-2014年中國(guó)和"一帶一路"沿線65個(gè)國(guó)家的有關(guān)時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)和錢納里提出的"世界發(fā)展模型",檢驗(yàn)我國(guó)對(duì)"一帶一路"國(guó)家的對(duì)外直接投資的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)效應(yīng),結(jié)果顯示:中國(guó)對(duì)" 一帶一路"國(guó)家的投資規(guī)模擴(kuò)張、對(duì)區(qū)域內(nèi)重點(diǎn)國(guó)家的投資增長(zhǎng)及投資國(guó)家區(qū)域內(nèi)地位的提升都將有利于內(nèi)部產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移,對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級(jí)的作用顯著,但是這種影響效應(yīng)還受到國(guó)內(nèi)人口、收入水平、吸引外資量、進(jìn)出口等因素的影響。第五章基于2003-2014年中國(guó)和"一帶一路"沿線65個(gè)國(guó)家的面板數(shù)據(jù),利用固定效應(yīng)模型,檢驗(yàn)中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇與東道國(guó)市場(chǎng)要素、資源要素、技術(shù)要素和戰(zhàn)略要素之間的關(guān)系,結(jié)果顯示:市場(chǎng)要素、技術(shù)要素和戰(zhàn)略要素與母國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)呈現(xiàn)顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,從影響程度看,戰(zhàn)略要素技術(shù)要素市場(chǎng)要素,資源要素則不顯著。第六章是定性分析,首先根據(jù)實(shí)證分析結(jié)果提出對(duì)"一帶一路"投資產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇的基準(zhǔn)和原則,其次結(jié)合"一帶一路"沿線收入因素,建立"收入水平——產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇"機(jī)制,判斷東道國(guó)投資發(fā)展階段,從而提出投資產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇的思路。第七章是對(duì)策分析,基于實(shí)證和定性分析的結(jié)論,針對(duì)不同的區(qū)域的國(guó)家,提出具有針對(duì)性的對(duì)外直接投資產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇的思路和建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, the international direct investment in economic development plays an increasingly prominent role, especially in the developed countries in the internal capacity and capital tends to be saturated, increase in East Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Latin America and other low-income level national investment into the new trend of the international direct investment, the implementation of the "new silk in the proposed economic zone planning, leading and signed the trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), Russia proposed the implementation of" Eurasian Economic Union "strategy.2013, Chinese proposed" The Belt and Road "construction and development strategy as a major strategy under the new situation of opening to the outside world, is an important part of China" go out "the strategy, on the use of international resources, advantage transfer capacity and mature industries, and strengthen the" Belt and Road Initiative along the country's industrial division and cooperation, has an important role to achieve win-win cooperation goal " The Belt and Road "direct investment in the country is" The Belt and Road "core power construction, driven by investment home and host country's industrial development, technological progress and economic growth. With the ability to enhance the overall competitiveness of China industry and foreign investment, 2014 Chinese has become a net exporter of capital, shows that foreign direct Chinese entered a new the stage, facing the new situation; on the other hand," The Belt and Road "along the different countries in the region in the geographical features, resource endowment, economic strength, income level, industrial base, and other obvious differences of investment environment, direct investment is facing many challenges. Therefore, in the face of many factors, how to choose the foreign direct investment industry, implementation is conducive to the upgrading of domestic industries, and meet the development needs of the host country, this is the starting point of this research. Based on The Belt and Road" countries along the direct investment of Chinese industry " The choice of this topic, the structure is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, firstly put forward "The Belt and Road" strategic background and situation of China's direct investment to countries along the face, clear the research significance in theory and practice, the value of the research is to deeply analyze the impact factors of foreign direct investment the choice of industry, to further expand to provide feasible suggestions for direct investment "The Belt and Road, deficiencies in many countries involved, the limited data obtained, affect the accuracy of some research conclusions; the second is the literature research, a detailed review on the domestic and foreign foreign direct investment industry, industrial upgrading and research" with the way the way of investment, the starting point of the paper is proposed; then the research contents, research ideas and research methods and ways of realization. The second chapter of "The Belt and Road, foreign direct Joint investment, industrial upgrading, industrial selection of research object defined, followed by the introduction of foreign direct investment and industry choice theory; then is about the analysis on the influence factors and mechanism of the host country and the industrial choice of foreign direct investment decision-making, lay the theoretical foundation for the empirical analysis. The third chapter is the research status. From the regional distribution, industrial structure, investment environment and other aspects of our country to "The Belt and Road along the country's direct investment situation, industrial base, investment environment, factor analysis, and the" The Belt and Road along the country is divided into "core area", "extension", "radiation zone". Analysis of each regional industrial development characteristics and industrial investment demand. The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter is the empirical research, empirical research according to the basic logic and thinking, the fourth chapter is the analysis of foreign direct investment "home country", based on 2003-2014 In Chinese and Belt and Road Initiative "along the 65 countries on the time series data and Chanari's" world development model "," the test of industrial structure of our country The Belt and Road "countries of foreign direct investment and upgrading effect, results show that the Chinese of The Belt and Road" national investment scale, investment growth and investment in the region of national and regional key countries in the promotion will be conducive to the internal transfer of industry, China on the upgrading of the industrial structure effect, but this effect has also been the domestic population, income level, to attract foreign investment, import and export and other factors. The fifth chapter is based on the panel data of 2003-2014 years China and "The Belt and Road" along the 65 countries, using fixed effect model, test China industries of foreign direct investment and the host country market factors, resources, technology and strategic factors. In between The results showed that, the market factors, technical factors and strategic factors and industrial structure of the home country showed a significant positive correlation, the degree of influence, strategic factors market factors technical factors, resource factors is not significant. The sixth chapter is the qualitative analysis, according to the results of empirical analysis and the standards and principles of investment The Belt and Road "the choice of industry, followed by the combination of" The Belt and Road along the income factor, the establishment of "income level: industry selection mechanism, determine the host country investment development stage, thus put forward the choice of investment ideas. The seventh chapter is the countermeasure analysis, empirical analysis and qualitative conclusions based on different regions of the country, has put forward some ideas and suggestions of foreign direct investment industry.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6
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本文編號(hào)：1531462