【摘要】：決策信心(Decision-making Confidence)是指在進(jìn)行決策或判斷時(shí),個(gè)體對(duì)其決策最優(yōu)性或正確性的把握程度。決策信心是決策過(guò)程中最基本的成分之一,它對(duì)當(dāng)下或后續(xù)決策都具有重要的調(diào)控作用。因此,對(duì)該領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行深入研究不僅具有很高的科學(xué)價(jià)值,也具有重要的實(shí)踐意義。目前,決策信心的研究主要集中在信心啟發(fā)式、信心測(cè)量、信心校準(zhǔn)以及信心評(píng)估的認(rèn)知加工模式等領(lǐng)域,也有研究者開(kāi)始探索決策信心表征和加工的神經(jīng)基礎(chǔ)。先前的研究范式大都基于單次信心的評(píng)估或校準(zhǔn),然而現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中,人類(lèi)決策信心的確定通常有 個(gè)逐漸的建構(gòu)過(guò)程。新近,有研究提出了決策信心建構(gòu)的兩階段動(dòng)態(tài)信號(hào)檢測(cè)論(TDSD)的模型：決策后,信息會(huì)繼續(xù)累積,決策信心也會(huì)隨著決策前后不斷累積的信息發(fā)生動(dòng)態(tài)變化；信息的性質(zhì)、數(shù)量和信息累積的時(shí)間順序等都會(huì)對(duì)決策信心的建構(gòu)產(chǎn)生重要影響。因此,本研究依據(jù)TDSD的觀(guān)點(diǎn),從認(rèn)知加工的角度考察了不同性質(zhì)的信息和數(shù)量(實(shí)驗(yàn)一)以及呈現(xiàn)順序(實(shí)驗(yàn)二)對(duì)決策信心動(dòng)態(tài)建構(gòu)的影響及作用機(jī)制；從神經(jīng)機(jī)制的角度,利用靜息態(tài)功能性磁共振技術(shù)(resting-state fMRI)考察了決策信心建構(gòu)的差異的神經(jīng)基礎(chǔ)(實(shí)驗(yàn)三)。 實(shí)驗(yàn)一通過(guò)操縱反饋信息的性質(zhì)(支持和反對(duì))以及數(shù)量(一致性程度),系統(tǒng)考察了反饋信息性質(zhì)和數(shù)量對(duì)決策信心動(dòng)態(tài)建構(gòu)的影響及作用機(jī)制。結(jié)果表明：(1)支持性的信息組合使決策信心增大,反對(duì)性的信息組合使決策信心降低,基線(xiàn)信心組合則對(duì)決策信心沒(méi)有顯著影響。(2)支持/反對(duì)程度越高,信息變化越大；當(dāng)支持/反對(duì)程度為中等和高等時(shí),反對(duì)信息引起的信心變化顯著大于支持信息,表現(xiàn)出一種“負(fù)性偏向”(即個(gè)體對(duì)負(fù)性信息更加敏感)。這些結(jié)果說(shuō)明,在決策信心的建構(gòu)中信息的性質(zhì)和數(shù)量具有重要的作用,而且負(fù)性信息對(duì)決策信心的影響更為強(qiáng)大。 實(shí)驗(yàn)二通過(guò)操縱正/負(fù)反饋的數(shù)量和正/負(fù)反饋的呈現(xiàn)順序,系統(tǒng)考察了正/負(fù)反饋信息數(shù)量和呈現(xiàn)順序?qū)Q策信心動(dòng)態(tài)建構(gòu)的影響及作用機(jī)制。結(jié)果表明：(1)在正/負(fù)反饋數(shù)量不等的條件下,相比于先前呈現(xiàn)的反饋,最后呈現(xiàn)的相反性質(zhì)的反饋引起的信心變化更大。(2)在正/負(fù)反饋數(shù)量相等的條件下,相比于正性反饋,后來(lái)出現(xiàn)的負(fù)性反饋引起的信心更大。這些結(jié)果說(shuō)明在決策信心的建構(gòu)中,信息的呈現(xiàn)順序具有重要的作用,不同性質(zhì)的信息會(huì)因呈現(xiàn)順序不同而表現(xiàn)出不同的權(quán)重。 實(shí)驗(yàn)三利用靜息態(tài)功能性磁共振技術(shù)(resting-state fMRI)考察了決策信心建構(gòu)過(guò)程中,信心水平大小和信心變化程度高低的群組差異的神經(jīng)基礎(chǔ)。由實(shí)驗(yàn)一和實(shí)驗(yàn)二可知,反饋的性質(zhì)、數(shù)量、呈現(xiàn)順序等均能對(duì)決策信心的動(dòng)態(tài)建構(gòu)產(chǎn)生影響,因此實(shí)驗(yàn)三僅通過(guò)操縱正性反饋的數(shù)量,考察決策信心動(dòng)態(tài)建構(gòu)過(guò)程中信心水平和變化差異的神經(jīng)基礎(chǔ)。行為結(jié)果表明：盡管個(gè)體經(jīng)歷的是相同的反饋,但反饋過(guò)程中信心水平的高低和信心的變化程度均存在顯著的差異。靜息態(tài)分析結(jié)果表明：(1)信心變化大的個(gè)體,其左側(cè)頂上小葉(L-superior parietal lobule)與前扣帶回(ACC)之間的功能連接強(qiáng)度,以及右側(cè)額葉(R-frontal lobe)的活性強(qiáng)度均顯著大于信心變化小的個(gè)體；而左側(cè)頂上小葉(L-superior parietal lobule)與額內(nèi)側(cè)回(Medial Frontal Gyrus)的功能連接強(qiáng)度則顯著小于信心變化小的個(gè)體。(2)信心水平低的個(gè)體,其左側(cè)頂上小葉(L-superior parietal lobule)與前扣帶回(ACC)的功能連接強(qiáng)度,以及中央前回(Precentral Gyrus)的活性強(qiáng)度均顯著大于信心水平高的個(gè)體；而左側(cè)頂上小葉(L-superior parietal lobule)和中央后回(Postcentral Gyrus)的功能連接強(qiáng)度則顯著小于信心水平高的個(gè)體。這些結(jié)果說(shuō)明,決策信心建構(gòu)過(guò)程中的差異與個(gè)體靜息狀態(tài)下自發(fā)的神經(jīng)活動(dòng)顯著相關(guān)。決策信心變化程度的差異與決策信心水平的差異均有其特有的神經(jīng)基礎(chǔ),且左側(cè)頂上小葉(L-superior parietal lobule)和前扣帶回(ACC)之間的功能連接則可能是群組間決策信心水平和變化差異共同的神經(jīng)基礎(chǔ)。 綜上所述,本研究從認(rèn)知加工的角度,發(fā)現(xiàn)了反饋信息的性質(zhì)、不同性質(zhì)信息的數(shù)量和信息累積的時(shí)間順序能夠交互的影響決策信心的動(dòng)態(tài)建構(gòu)。而從神經(jīng)機(jī)制的角度,發(fā)現(xiàn)了左側(cè)頂上小葉(L-superior parietal lobule)和前扣帶回(ACC)之間的功能連接則可能是決策信心動(dòng)態(tài)建構(gòu)過(guò)程中群組間決策信心水平和變化差異共同的神經(jīng)基礎(chǔ)。這些結(jié)果不僅加深了對(duì)決策信心動(dòng)態(tài)建構(gòu)過(guò)程的認(rèn)識(shí),更對(duì)決策信心動(dòng)態(tài)變化的群組差異提供了新的解釋,因而具有較高的理論價(jià)值,也具有重要的實(shí)踐指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:Decision-making Confidence refers to the degree of the individual's grasp of the optimality or correctness of decision-making or judgment. The decision-making confidence is one of the most basic components in the decision-making process, and it plays an important role in the current or subsequent decision-making. Therefore, the deep research on this field not only has very high scientific value, but also has important practical significance. At present, the research of decision-making confidence is mainly focused on the fields of confidence heuristic, confidence measurement, confidence calibration and cognitive processing mode of confidence assessment. The previous research paradigm is mostly based on the assessment or calibration of single confidence, but in real life, the determination of human decision-making is often a gradual build-up A two-stage dynamic signal detection theory (TDSD) for decision-making confidence construction is presented in this paper. After the decision, the information will continue to accumulate, and the decision-making confidence will change dynamically with the information accumulated before and after the decision-making; the information's nature The time order of the accumulation of quality, quantity and information will make an important reflection on the construction of decision-making confidence In this study, according to the view of TDSD, the influence and mechanism of information and quantity (experiment 1) and the order of presentation (experiment 2) on the dynamic construction of decision-making confidence were investigated from the point of view of cognitive processing. The neural basis of the difference in the confidence-building of decision-making was examined by the resting-state fMRI, using the resting-state fMRI. In this paper, the influence of the nature and quantity of the feedback information on the dynamic construction of decision-making is investigated by manipulating the nature (support and objection) and quantity (degree of consistency) of the feedback information. The results show that: (1) the supportive information combination makes the decision-making confidence increase and the rejection information combination makes the decision-making confidence lower, and the baseline confidence combination is not obvious to the decision-making confidence (2) The higher the level of support/ objection and the greater the change of information; when the degree of support/ objection is medium and high, the change of confidence in the objection information is significantly greater than the support information, showing a 鈥渘egative bias鈥，

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