【摘要】：隨著國際分工合作的進一步深入，國家與國家之間的聯(lián)系越來越緊密，相互之間的利益交集越來越大。國際貿(mào)易已經(jīng)擺脫“單體理性，整體非理性”的博弈時代，多邊貿(mào)易體制的建立使共贏、雙贏成為國與國之間博弈最重要的思想。這也是多邊貿(mào)易體制穩(wěn)定的基礎(chǔ)所在。多邊貿(mào)易體制下，所有成員國的收益總和是擴大的，但如何劃分這些收益卻存在不確定因素，在這過程中存在著大量的博弈行為。 相對于一般博弈而言，國際貿(mào)易博弈是一個雙層性的博弈，包括國際博弈與國內(nèi)博弈。兩層博弈之間存在著緊密的互動，國際貿(mào)易政策是兩者之間的一個均衡。文章強調(diào)，在多邊貿(mào)易體制下，博弈強調(diào)的共贏，任何一方企圖以非公平的方式來解決沖突，最終導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果是兩敗俱傷。 本文從中美在中國復(fù)關(guān)入世談判入手，分析了兩個階段中，中美雙方做出不同談判博弈背后的原因，系統(tǒng)分析了國際貿(mào)易談判獲勝的基本規(guī)律，，并對多邊貿(mào)易體制進行一定的闡述。中國復(fù)關(guān)入世的時間長度是前所未有的，中美雙方在整個過程中經(jīng)歷了長時間的博弈，博弈的過程也經(jīng)歷了一波三折。在博弈中，談判策略隨著環(huán)境的轉(zhuǎn)變而轉(zhuǎn)變。除了經(jīng)濟因素以外，政治因素以及突發(fā)事件都能夠?qū)Σ┺碾p方產(chǎn)生實質(zhì)性的影響。中美復(fù)關(guān)入世談判的博弈不同于其他單純的商業(yè)經(jīng)濟談判或者外交談判，而是涉及到國內(nèi)國外的經(jīng)濟外交談判的雙重博弈。
[Abstract]:With the further development of international division of labor and cooperation, the relationship between countries is becoming closer and closer, and the interests of each other are becoming more and more important. International trade has got rid of the game era of "single rationality, whole irrationality". The establishment of multilateral trading system makes win-win become the most important thought of game between countries. This is also the basis for the stability of the multilateral trading system. Under the multilateral trading system, the total income of all member countries is enlarged, but there are uncertain factors in how to divide these benefits. In this process, there are a lot of game behaviors. Compared with the general game, the international trade game is a bilevel game, including international game and domestic game. There is close interaction between the two levels of game, and international trade policy is a balance between them. The article emphasizes that under the multilateral trading system, the game emphasizes the win-win situation, in which any party attempts to resolve the conflict in an unfair way, and the ultimate result is that both sides lose both sides. This paper begins with the negotiations between China and the United States on China's accession to WTO, analyzes the reasons behind the different negotiation games between China and the United States in the two stages, and systematically analyzes the basic rules of winning international trade negotiations. And the multilateral trading system to a certain extent. The duration of China's entry into WTO is unprecedented. China and the United States have experienced a long period of game in the whole process, and the process of game has also experienced a series of twists and turns. In the game, negotiation strategy changes with the change of environment. In addition to economic factors, political factors and unexpected events can have a substantial impact on both sides of the game. The game of Sino-American entry into WTO is different from other simple commercial economic negotiation or diplomatic negotiation, but involves the double game of economic diplomatic negotiation at home and abroad.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：外交學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：D822.3

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