社會保障、居民消費與經濟發(fā)展關系研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-01 20:51
【摘要】：本文基于向量自回歸模型研究我國社會保障與經濟發(fā)展之間的關系,通過引入中間因素—居民消費來研究社會保障與經濟發(fā)展之間的相互作用機制。本文首先運用層次分析法分別算出經濟發(fā)展綜合指標和社會保障綜合指標的各子指標的權重,然后算出綜合指標。最后通過單位根檢驗、構建向量自回歸模型、確定最優(yōu)滯后階數(shù)、模型平穩(wěn)性檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗、脈沖響應與方差分解等流程研究社會保障、居民消費與經濟發(fā)展三者之間的相互關系。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):社會保障、居民消費、經濟發(fā)展存在著緊密的關系,從總體上講三者之間是相互作用、相互促進的。經濟發(fā)展是基礎,它決定著居民消費水平的提升,決定著社會保障事業(yè)的產生和發(fā)展;同時,社會保障事業(yè)的發(fā)展對提高居民消費水平、促進經濟發(fā)展也有著重要的意義;社會保障事業(yè)對居民消費水平與經濟發(fā)展具有雙重作用。目前,由于我國社會保障事業(yè)還處于成長階段,沒有顯現(xiàn)出來對我國經濟發(fā)展的擠出效應,對我國經濟發(fā)展的促進效應開始顯現(xiàn)并逐漸提高,但促進效應不夠顯著。從實證結果可以看出社會保障對經濟發(fā)展的抑制作用要小于社會保障對經濟發(fā)展的促進作用。所以,提高我國財政社保支出水平是促進我國經濟健康發(fā)展的可行選擇。
[Abstract]:Based on the vector autoregressive model, this paper studies the relationship between social security and economic development in China, and studies the interaction mechanism between social security and economic development by introducing the intermediate factor-resident consumption. In this paper, the weight of the economic development index and the social security index are calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then the comprehensive index is calculated. Finally, through the unit root test, build the vector autoregressive model, determine the optimal lag order, model stability test, cointegration test, impulse response and variance decomposition and other processes to study social security. The relationship between resident consumption and economic development. It is found that there are close relations among social security, resident consumption and economic development. Economic development is the foundation, which determines the improvement of the consumption level of the residents and the emergence and development of the social security undertakings, at the same time, the development of the social security undertakings plays an important role in improving the consumption level of the residents and promoting the economic development. The social security enterprise has the dual function to the resident consumption level and the economic development. At present, because the social security in our country is still in the growing stage, it does not show the crowding out effect to our country's economic development, and the promoting effect to our country's economic development begins to appear and increases gradually, but the promoting effect is not obvious enough. From the empirical results, we can see that the inhibitory effect of social security on economic development is smaller than that of social security on economic development. Therefore, it is a feasible choice to promote the healthy development of our economy by raising the expenditure level of our country's finance and social security.
【學位授予單位】：青島大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：D632.1;F126.1;F124
[Abstract]:Based on the vector autoregressive model, this paper studies the relationship between social security and economic development in China, and studies the interaction mechanism between social security and economic development by introducing the intermediate factor-resident consumption. In this paper, the weight of the economic development index and the social security index are calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then the comprehensive index is calculated. Finally, through the unit root test, build the vector autoregressive model, determine the optimal lag order, model stability test, cointegration test, impulse response and variance decomposition and other processes to study social security. The relationship between resident consumption and economic development. It is found that there are close relations among social security, resident consumption and economic development. Economic development is the foundation, which determines the improvement of the consumption level of the residents and the emergence and development of the social security undertakings, at the same time, the development of the social security undertakings plays an important role in improving the consumption level of the residents and promoting the economic development. The social security enterprise has the dual function to the resident consumption level and the economic development. At present, because the social security in our country is still in the growing stage, it does not show the crowding out effect to our country's economic development, and the promoting effect to our country's economic development begins to appear and increases gradually, but the promoting effect is not obvious enough. From the empirical results, we can see that the inhibitory effect of social security on economic development is smaller than that of social security on economic development. Therefore, it is a feasible choice to promote the healthy development of our economy by raising the expenditure level of our country's finance and social security.
【學位授予單位】：青島大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：D632.1;F126.1;F124
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