【摘要】：本文站在城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的視角對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)遷移人口進(jìn)行研究,意欲為揭示城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移規(guī)律,推動(dòng)城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提出理論基礎(chǔ)和政策依據(jù)。 本文首先通過(guò)分析城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移與城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的互動(dòng)機(jī)理,提出構(gòu)建城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移與城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的聯(lián)立方程模型框架,模型包括了城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移方程,城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)方程,城鄉(xiāng)社會(huì)保障協(xié)調(diào)方程。通過(guò)深入分析城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移的影響因素,從空間和時(shí)間角度分別用因子分析法篩選了城市發(fā)展因子、城市社會(huì)保障因子、農(nóng)村發(fā)展因子和農(nóng)村社會(huì)保障因子�？臻g角度對(duì)面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移在全國(guó)30個(gè)省(直轄市)范圍內(nèi)符合固定效應(yīng)模型,城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移受城市因子“拉力”作用與農(nóng)村因子“推力”作用;時(shí)間角度對(duì)時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,并通過(guò)脈沖響應(yīng)分析了各個(gè)因子對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移作用效果的滯后作用。 進(jìn)一步對(duì)聯(lián)立方程模型進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,從空間角度分析的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明全國(guó)30個(gè)省(直轄市)城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移量的增加對(duì)于農(nóng)村的發(fā)展水平與農(nóng)村社會(huì)保障水平的提高都有促進(jìn)作用,全國(guó)的城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展水平是協(xié)調(diào)的,但是城鄉(xiāng)社會(huì)保障水平不協(xié)調(diào),從東中西部地區(qū)來(lái)看,東部地區(qū)城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移量最小,城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展水平不協(xié)調(diào),西部地區(qū)城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移量最大,城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展水平是協(xié)調(diào)的,中部地區(qū)城鄉(xiāng)遷移量居中,但是城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展最協(xié)調(diào);東中西地區(qū)的城鄉(xiāng)社會(huì)保障水平都不協(xié)調(diào);從歷史變動(dòng)角度分析的實(shí)證結(jié)果表明城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移量在改革開(kāi)放之后的前十年受城市與農(nóng)村因子的“推拉”較近十年明顯,并且城鄉(xiāng)的發(fā)展是協(xié)調(diào)的,但是協(xié)調(diào)程度有下降趨勢(shì),城鄉(xiāng)的社會(huì)保障水平是不協(xié)調(diào)的,但是不協(xié)調(diào)程度在弱化。 本文將城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移與城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展相聯(lián)系并對(duì)其構(gòu)造聯(lián)立方程模型進(jìn)行研究,具有一定的方法論創(chuàng)新性;對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果從空間和時(shí)間角度全面分析了城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移與城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的變動(dòng)過(guò)程,為國(guó)家在考慮城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的同時(shí)制定人口政策提供了理論依據(jù),具有重大的實(shí)踐意義。
[Abstract]:From the perspective of coordinated development of urban and rural areas, this paper studies the urban-rural migration population, in order to reveal the laws of urban-rural population migration and promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas to put forward the theoretical basis and policy basis. Firstly, by analyzing the interactive mechanism of urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development, this paper puts forward a simultaneous equation model frame of urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development. The model includes urban-rural population migration equation, urban-rural development coordination equation. Urban and rural social security coordination equation. Through in-depth analysis of the influencing factors of urban and rural population migration, the factors of urban development, urban social security, rural development and rural social security were screened from the perspective of spatial and temporal factors. Spatial analysis of panel data shows that urban and rural population migration in 30 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) in the scope of the fixed effect model, urban and rural migration by the urban factor "pull" role and rural factor "thrust" role; The time series data are analyzed from the time angle, and the lag effect of each factor on the migration of urban and rural population is analyzed by impulse response. Furthermore, the simultaneous equation model is empirically analyzed. The empirical results from a spatial perspective show that the increase of urban and rural population migration in 30 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) has a positive effect on both the rural development level and the rural social security level, and the level of urban and rural development in the whole country is coordinated. However, the level of urban and rural social security is not in harmony. From the point of view of the eastern, central and western regions, the amount of urban and rural population migration in the eastern region is the smallest, and the level of urban and rural development is not in harmony. The western region has the largest amount of urban-rural migration and the level of urban-rural development is coordinated. The urban and rural migration in the central region is in the middle, but the urban and rural development is the most coordinated, and the level of urban and rural social security is not coordinated in the east, west and west regions. From the perspective of historical changes, the empirical results show that the urban and rural population migration in the first ten years after the reform and opening up is more obvious than in the recent ten years by urban and rural factors, and the development of urban and rural areas is coordinated. However, the degree of coordination has a downward trend, urban and rural social security level is not coordinated, but the degree of uncoordination is weakening. In this paper, the relationship between urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development and the study of its simultaneous equation model have certain methodological innovation. From the perspective of space and time, this paper analyzes the changing process of urban-rural population migration and urban-rural coordinated development, which provides a theoretical basis for the country to formulate population policy while considering the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, which has great practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.2;F224

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 劉美蓉;我國(guó)民族地區(qū)人口遷移模型構(gòu)建及實(shí)證分析[D];中央民族大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號(hào)：2269134