本文選題：智能體 + 地理信息系統(tǒng)�。� 參考：《首都師范大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,中國(guó)進(jìn)入了人口城市化的快速發(fā)展階段,伴隨城市增長(zhǎng)也導(dǎo)致了多種社會(huì)和環(huán)境問(wèn)題,如大氣污染,交通擁堵,綠地弱化。城市政府部在制定城市規(guī)劃過(guò)程中充分的考慮到上述問(wèn)題,使用了大量的方法來(lái)解決城市增長(zhǎng)而帶來(lái)的消極影響,其中GIS方法是最常用的解決方法之一,但是GIS方法在解決城市人口發(fā)展的時(shí)間過(guò)程中存在一定的劣勢(shì),因而不能有效的預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)人口分布。 GIS數(shù)據(jù)模型核心主要在于空間性,因此GIS工具只能有限的處理時(shí)間過(guò)程問(wèn)題。城市多智能體方法是從城市內(nèi)部的微觀變動(dòng)結(jié)合城市環(huán)境,來(lái)反映宏觀的城市人口分布變化,多智能體方法在處理時(shí)間過(guò)程問(wèn)題中存在很大的優(yōu)勢(shì)。本文選擇C#編程,集成多智能體平臺(tái)Repast,并對(duì)具體的智能體的屬性進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的設(shè)定,同時(shí)還提出了智能體與GIS進(jìn)行集成的方案,并最終通過(guò)shapefile文件中間件的形式與Repast進(jìn)行了集成開發(fā)。在研究中,以Repast為工具構(gòu)建一系列的獨(dú)立智能體,他們通過(guò)離散事件在以綠地、交通、房?jī)r(jià)、學(xué)校為背景的環(huán)境中進(jìn)行信息交互,模擬客觀世界中的城市演化過(guò)程。 本文首先闡述了人口遷移建模,研究背景,國(guó)內(nèi)外進(jìn)展以及相關(guān)理論支撐,并提出運(yùn)用多智能體系統(tǒng)與GIS進(jìn)行集成的建模思路,然后提出建立人口遷移時(shí)空模型的核心基礎(chǔ)：人口遷移的時(shí)空信息機(jī)理,對(duì)時(shí)空信息機(jī)理的闡述主要是根據(jù)北京市的實(shí)際情況,然后以2008年的數(shù)據(jù)為主要依據(jù),然后根據(jù)時(shí)空信息機(jī)理提出模型設(shè)計(jì)思路以及部分實(shí)現(xiàn)方法,通過(guò)模型對(duì)北京市2010年的北京市人口數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并將預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果北京市實(shí)際統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行比較,從而對(duì)模型精度進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明模型精度為93%。最后對(duì)北京市2015年的人口數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并根據(jù)智能體的決策行為,分析了智能體對(duì)北京市中小學(xué)校數(shù)量及學(xué)校分布的影響。 研究結(jié)果表明,北京2015年的城市人口分布更加具有規(guī)律性,人口集中在四環(huán)到五環(huán)之間,雖然城市人口數(shù)量依然保持持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的模式,但是增長(zhǎng)速度明顯減緩。城市的發(fā)展方向呈現(xiàn)多中心聚集和周邊環(huán)狀分布兩個(gè)發(fā)展方向。政府通過(guò)交通線路的鋪設(shè)以及綠化帶的規(guī)劃建設(shè)等控制手段,克服了城市的無(wú)序擴(kuò)張和中心衰退,既降低了市中心的人口密度,又防止了城市空心化的發(fā)生,說(shuō)明政府的宏觀調(diào)控已經(jīng)起到了一定的作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, China has entered the stage of rapid development of population urbanization, accompanied by urban growth has also led to a variety of social and environmental problems, such as air pollution, traffic congestion, the weakening of green space.The Ministry of Urban Government has taken these problems into full consideration in the process of formulating urban planning, and has used a large number of methods to solve the negative effects of urban growth, among which the GIS method is one of the most commonly used solutions.However, the GIS method has some disadvantages in solving the time course of urban population development, so it can not effectively predict the future population distribution.The core of GIS data model is mainly spatial, so GIS tools can only deal with time process problem.The urban multi-agent method reflects the macro urban population distribution from the microcosmic changes within the city and the urban environment. The multi-agent method has a great advantage in dealing with the time process problem.This paper chooses C # programming, integrates the multi-agent platform Repast. and sets the properties of the specific agent in detail. At the same time, it puts forward the scheme of the integration of the agent and GIS.And finally through the form of shapefile file middleware and Repast integration development.In the study, a series of independent agents are constructed by using Repast as a tool. They interact with each other through discrete events in the context of green space, traffic, house prices and schools, and simulate the urban evolution process in the objective world.In this paper, the modeling of population migration, the research background, the progress at home and abroad and the related theories are introduced, and the idea of integrating multi-agent system with GIS is put forward in this paper.Then it puts forward the core foundation of establishing the spatio-temporal model of population migration: the spatio-temporal information mechanism of population migration. The expounding of spatio-temporal information mechanism is mainly based on the actual situation in Beijing, and then on the basis of the 2008 data.Then, according to the mechanism of space-time information, the paper puts forward the model design idea and some realization methods, forecasts the population data of Beijing in 2010 through the model, and compares the actual statistical data of Beijing with the forecast results.The accuracy of the model is tested and the result shows that the precision of the model is 933.Finally, the population data of Beijing in 2015 are predicted, and the influence of agent on the number and distribution of primary and secondary schools in Beijing is analyzed according to the decision-making behavior of agents.The results show that the urban population distribution in Beijing in 2015 is more regular, the population is concentrated between the four rings and five rings, although the urban population still keeps the pattern of sustained growth, but the growth rate is obviously slower.The development direction of the city presents two development directions: polycentric agglomeration and circumjacent annular distribution.The government has overcome the city's disorderly expansion and central decline by laying traffic lines and planning and building green belts, reducing the population density of the city center and preventing the city from becoming hollow.Show that the government's macro-control has played a certain role.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：C922

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