本文關(guān)鍵詞：從人口撫養(yǎng)比到消費撫養(yǎng)比的探索　出處：《江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：人口撫養(yǎng)比作為反映人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展影響的一個重要指標(biāo),自被提出以來就一直得到廣泛使用并沿用至今。但隨著學(xué)者的深入研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)該指標(biāo)存在不少缺陷。其中公認(rèn)的有三個方面:第一,對少兒,勞動力以及老年的人口規(guī)模的確定不合理,以至于過度夸大社會撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān);第二,忽略產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對人口撫養(yǎng)比的影響。三次產(chǎn)業(yè)人均產(chǎn)出不同,其勞動力的撫養(yǎng)能力也不同;第三,各個年齡段的人的消費水平不同,單純以各年齡組的人口數(shù)量之比衡量社會負(fù)擔(dān)不太合理。對于這些缺陷,國內(nèi)外學(xué)者也提出了相應(yīng)的改進方案。一是提出"標(biāo)準(zhǔn)消費人口",分別將少兒和老年人的消費按一定比例折算成一個勞動力的消費;二是提出"有效勞動力",對比產(chǎn)業(yè)間不同人均產(chǎn)出,重新測算勞動人口。筆者認(rèn)為撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)更確切地應(yīng)該表現(xiàn)為一個國家或地區(qū)中不從事生產(chǎn)的群體所消耗的資源與生產(chǎn)性人員所消耗的資源之比(這部分資源可視為勞動力為了生產(chǎn)所投入的),而不只是單純地測度少兒人口與老年人口占勞動年齡人口的比重。因為對勞動力的消費支出實際上可視為一種投入,正是有這種投入,才有勞動力的生產(chǎn)成果即產(chǎn)出;而消費性群體,如學(xué)生、嬰幼兒以及老年人則是純消費性群體,他們的消費支出不會帶來產(chǎn)出,所以這些群體的消費才是一個社會或地區(qū)所真正需要負(fù)擔(dān)的。人口撫養(yǎng)比指標(biāo)本是為了衡量社會的撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān),但實際中由于各年齡組消費水平的不同以及三次產(chǎn)業(yè)單位勞動力產(chǎn)出差異導(dǎo)致傳統(tǒng)的人口撫養(yǎng)比指標(biāo)衡量社會撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)的精確性大打折扣。因此筆者認(rèn)為從消費資源的角度重新估量社會撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)會更合理。計算消費撫養(yǎng)比有兩個關(guān)鍵步驟。第一步,先估計出三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的有效勞動力。以第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的平均勞動力為1個有效勞動力,第二、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的勞動力按照其人均勞動力產(chǎn)出與第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的人均勞動力產(chǎn)出比換算成有效勞動力;第二步,計算各年齡組的消費換算系數(shù)。以勞動力組的人均消費支出為1個單位的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)消費支出,以學(xué)生組和非勞動力組的人均消費支出與勞動力組的人均消費支出之比為各自的消費換算系數(shù)(即學(xué)生組或非勞動力組的人均標(biāo)準(zhǔn)消費支出)。在實證分析中,筆者利用江西省新建縣和南昌縣家庭住戶的抽樣調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)計算出城鎮(zhèn)消費撫養(yǎng)比和農(nóng)村消費撫養(yǎng)比。結(jié)果顯示:無論是城鎮(zhèn)還是農(nóng)村,各項消費撫養(yǎng)比均低于傳統(tǒng)的人口撫養(yǎng)比,總撫養(yǎng)比更是相差20個百分點左右。也就是說,實際中城鎮(zhèn)或農(nóng)村居民并沒有承擔(dān)傳統(tǒng)撫養(yǎng)比所表現(xiàn)出的那么重的撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)。其中,城鎮(zhèn)的各項消費撫養(yǎng)比均大于農(nóng)村,特別是在負(fù)擔(dān)非勞動力(主體為65歲以上老人)上。因此,城鎮(zhèn)居民面臨比農(nóng)村居民更大的養(yǎng)老壓力。本文還利用2014年度江西省公共財政支出中教育支出的細(xì)項,結(jié)合政府實行的"九年義務(wù)教育"政策,測度出政府在教育上的實物社會轉(zhuǎn)移支出為居民減輕了多少負(fù)擔(dān)。結(jié)果表明,政府對居民的實物社會轉(zhuǎn)移(教育支出部分)支出為居民減輕了撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān),其中農(nóng)村居民在政府的教育方面的實物社會轉(zhuǎn)移中獲得更大的社會福利。本文最后根據(jù)全文分析結(jié)果進行總結(jié),并針對提高消費撫養(yǎng)比的精確度和減輕居民撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)兩個方面提出相關(guān)建議與措施。在提高撫養(yǎng)比的精確度上,主要從提高對居民分組的準(zhǔn)確性,有效勞動力估計的合理性以及消費換算系數(shù)確定的精準(zhǔn)度這三個方面入手;在減輕居民撫養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)的措施方面主要有產(chǎn)業(yè)升級,提倡傳統(tǒng)的居家養(yǎng)老模式以及政府根據(jù)城鎮(zhèn)與農(nóng)村居民承擔(dān)的不同撫養(yǎng)壓力提供適當(dāng)社會保障。
[Abstract]:Population dependency ratio, as an important index reflecting the impact of population age structure on social and economic development, has been widely used since its being put forward and has been used till now. However, with the in-depth study of the scholars, it has been found that there are many defects in this index. Three aspects are generally recognized: first, the determination of the size of the children, the labor force and the elderly is unreasonable, so that the social burden of social support is overstated. Second, the influence of industrial structure on population dependency ratio is ignored. The output per capita of the three industries is different, and the labor force's ability of raising is also different. Third, the consumption level of people of all ages is different. It's not reasonable to weigh the social burden simply by the ratio of the population of each age group. To these defects, the domestic and foreign scholars also put forward the corresponding improvement plan. The first is to put forward the "standard consumption population", which is to convert the consumption of children and the elderly into a labor force consumption at a certain rate. The two is to propose effective labor force, comparing the output per capita between different industries, and re calculating the labor force. The author thinks that the dependency burden more accurately should behave as resources and production personnel consumption produced not engaged in a country or region in the group of resource consumption ratio (which can be regarded as part of the resources for the production of the labor input), and is not simply to measure children's working age population and elderly population the proportion of the population. Because of labor spending actually can be regarded as a kind of investment, it is the only labor input, production output and consumption; groups such as students, infants and the elderly is pure consumer groups, consumer spending will not bring their output, so these consumer groups is a society or region needs burden. The index of population dependency ratio is used to measure the burden of social support, but in fact, the accuracy of traditional population dependency ratio measurement is greatly reduced because of the difference in consumption level of each age group and the difference of labor output between three industrial units. Therefore, I think it will be more reasonable to reassess the burden of social support from the perspective of consumption resources. There are two key steps in calculating the consumption dependency ratio. The first step is to estimate the effective labor force of the three industries. The average labor force in the first industry is 1 effective labor force, and the labor force in the second and third industries is converted into effective labor force according to the per capita labor output and the per capita labor output ratio of the primary industry. The second step is to calculate the consumption conversion coefficient of each age group. In labor group per capita consumption expenditure of 1 units of the standard consumption expenditure, per capita consumption expenditure to the students group and the non labor group and labor group of per capita consumption expenditure ratio of consumption conversion factor (i.e. each student group or non labor group per capita consumption expenditure standard). In the empirical analysis, the author calculates the consumption dependency ratio and the rural consumption dependency ratio by using the sampling survey data of family households in Xinjian County and Nanchang County, Jiangxi province. The results show that both the urban and rural areas, the consumption dependency ratio is lower than the traditional population dependency ratio, the total dependency ratio is about 20 percentage points. In other words, the actual urban or rural residents do not bear the burden of raising the traditional dependency ratio. Among them, the urban consumption and maintenance ratio is greater than that in the rural areas, especially in the non labor force (the main body is older than 65 years old). Therefore, the urban residents face greater pressure on the elderly than the rural residents. Based on the detailed education expenditure in Jiangxi's public expenditure in 2014, combined with the nine year compulsory education policy implemented by the government, this paper measures how much the government's physical social transfer expenditure on education has alleviated for the residents. The results show that the government's expenditure on the physical social transfer (education expenditure) of the residents has reduced the burden of the residents, and the rural residents get greater social benefits in the physical transfer of the government's education. Finally, according to the results of the full text analysis, we sum up two suggestions and measures to improve the accuracy of consumption dependency ratio and reduce the burden of residents. To improve the accuracy of dependency ratio, mainly from the increased accuracy of residents groups, determine the effective labor estimates the rationality and accuracy of the conversion coefficient of consumption of these three aspects; in the aspect of reducing residents of dependency burden are the main measures to promote industrial upgrading, the traditional family endowment pattern and government according to different towns and raising pressure rural residents bear the appropriate social security.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F126.1;C924.2

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