本文選題：頁巖氣　切入點：致密油　出處：《遼寧大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：頁巖革命使美國由能源凈進口國變?yōu)榱四茉磧舫隹趪?用技術革新重新定義了商業(yè)可開采能源的范圍,也為分析能源市場提供了一種新的思路,十年前的高油價時代人們認為化石能源是不可再生的會被開采殆盡的,而頁巖革命則表明了技術進步可使過去商業(yè)不可開采的能源變?yōu)榭砷_采能源。頁巖革命之后還有可燃冰開采技術尚待發(fā)展,可燃冰開采技術之后還有可再生能源技術,而由于能源利用率提高全球能源消耗達到一定峰值后就會開始下降。頁巖革命重構了全球能源蘊藏地圖,也顛覆了十年前高油價時代關于能源市場的常識。傳統(tǒng)上認為低油價會促進經(jīng)濟增長,而頁巖革命后只有印度等少數(shù)國家因為油價降低而經(jīng)濟增長。能源政治的發(fā)展也不再遵循過去的經(jīng)驗,在敘利亞、利比亞政治動蕩、“伊斯蘭國”崛起的同時油價卻在下降,傳統(tǒng)上通過減產維持油價的沙特在2015年拒絕減產。根據(jù)國際能源署(IEA)的定義,能源安全指“能在支付能力范圍內不受中斷地獲取能源”。能源價格是能源安全的重要組成部分。在頁巖革命的影響下,世界石油和天然氣市場由賣方市場轉變?yōu)橘I方市場,能源進口國的議價能力得到提升,石油和天然氣出口國很難再利用中斷能源供應作為“能源武器”在國際政治舞臺發(fā)揮作用。相反,在國際經(jīng)濟不景氣的大背景下,經(jīng)濟結構單一的能源出口國需要依賴能源進口國拓展市場,增加財政收入。但能源進口國地位的提升在不同地區(qū)的表現(xiàn)程度是不同的,這主要受制于各地區(qū)出于不同地理位置和歷史原因形成的不同定價規(guī)則。本文辨析了最近幾年能源市場產生的轉變哪些是由頁巖革命引起,哪些是由于頁巖革命和其他因素一起發(fā)揮的作用�？疾炝隧搸r革命分別對美國、傳統(tǒng)能源出口國和主要能源進口國的能源安全和經(jīng)濟安全的影響,并分析了各國面對頁巖革命的具體行為表現(xiàn)和可能的行為方向。本文重點考察了頁巖革命對各主要能源市場定價規(guī)則的影響,分析了定價規(guī)則的變化如何影響能源市場中進口國和出口國之間的政治地位和政治權力,不同的定價規(guī)則如何使頁巖革命的影響在不同地區(qū)表現(xiàn)程度不同,并為如何借助頁巖革命的影響打破“亞洲溢價”提出具體建議。
[Abstract]:The shale revolution has transformed the United States from a net importer of energy into a net exporter of energy, redefining the scope of commercially exploitable energy with technological innovations, and providing a new way of thinking about the analysis of energy markets. Ten years ago, in the era of high oil prices, it was thought that fossil energy was non-renewable and would be exhausted. And the shale revolution has shown that technological advances can turn previously commercially unexploitable energy into exploitable energy, and that there is still a need for the development of combustible ice mining after the shale revolution, followed by renewable energy technologies for combustible ice mining. And as energy efficiency increases and global energy consumption reaches a certain peak, the shale revolution reconstructs the map of global energy reserves. It also upended the conventional wisdom about energy markets in the era of high oil prices a decade ago. It has traditionally been thought that low oil prices would boost economic growth. After the shale revolution, only a few countries, such as India, grew because of lower oil prices. The development of energy politics no longer follows past experience. In Syria, Libya, political turmoil, the rise of the Islamic State, but oil prices are falling. The Saudis, who traditionally maintain oil prices by cutting production, refused to do so in 2015. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy security refers to "uninterrupted access to energy within the limits of affordability". Energy prices are an important component of energy security. Under the influence of the shale revolution, the world oil and gas market has changed from a seller's market to a buyer's market. The bargaining power of energy-importing countries has been enhanced, and it is difficult for oil and gas exporters to use the interruption of energy supply as an "energy weapon" in the international political arena. On the contrary, against a backdrop of a depressed international economy, Energy-exporting countries with a single economic structure need to rely on energy-importing countries to expand their markets and increase their revenues. But the increase in the status of energy-importing countries varies from region to region. This is mainly subject to different pricing rules formed by different regions for different geographical and historical reasons. This paper analyzes which of the changes in the energy market in recent years have been caused by the shale revolution. The impact of the shale revolution on energy security and economic security in the United States, traditional energy exporters and major energy importers, respectively, was examined. It also analyzes the specific behavior and possible behavior direction of the shale revolution in various countries. This paper focuses on the impact of the shale revolution on the pricing rules of the major energy markets. Analyzing how changes in pricing rules affect political status and political power between importing and exporting countries in energy markets, and how different pricing rules make the impact of the shale revolution manifest differently in different regions, And how to use the impact of the shale revolution to break the "Asian premium" specific recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F416.22;D871.2

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