本文選題：森林資源　切入點：相關(guān)分析　出處：《山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：森林資源是世界上自然資源的重要組成部分,具有經(jīng)濟、社會和生態(tài)等多種功能,人類社會對生態(tài)環(huán)境的日漸重視,使得森林資源的重要性更加凸顯。森林資源的動態(tài)變化受許多因素的影響,其中重要的因素之一是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平。我國幅員遼闊,人口眾多,現(xiàn)有的森林資源在質(zhì)和量上尚難以滿足人們?nèi)找嬖鲩L的生產(chǎn)生活需要。研究森林資源的發(fā)展變化規(guī)律,分析與各種社會因素存在的相關(guān)性,是探索物質(zhì)文明與生態(tài)文明依存關(guān)系的內(nèi)容之一,也有利于探究社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與森林資源環(huán)境之間協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的關(guān)系。近年來山東省經(jīng)濟快速發(fā)展、工業(yè)化水平不斷提升,意味著建設(shè)用地的面積不斷擴大、農(nóng)業(yè)用地逐步減少、人地矛盾更加尖銳,同時伴隨著對自然資源的過度消耗,造成山東省森林資源保育與發(fā)展面臨壓力,森林質(zhì)量難以提高,生物多樣性下降,森林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)功能不能滿足區(qū)域社會需求。如何找到經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和森林資源營造、保護利用之間的平衡點是現(xiàn)代化林業(yè)發(fā)展的重點。本研究以山東省森林資源為研究對象,以八次全國森林資源連續(xù)清查山東省調(diào)查結(jié)果為基礎(chǔ),針對森林蓄積量、森林覆蓋率與人均GDP之間的關(guān)系,運用庫茲涅茨基本模型進行研究,分析了人均GDP的變化與森林資源消長的關(guān)系,并研究了這種影響所存在的滯后性。依據(jù)獲得的最優(yōu)模型對2013年至2017年的森林資源進行了預(yù)測分析。通過探討山東省森林資源變化趨勢和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的規(guī)律,為提高山東省森林資源數(shù)量,更有效地開展林業(yè)工作,制定科學(xué)的林業(yè)政策提供依據(jù)。主要研究內(nèi)容與結(jié)論如下:(1)運用庫茲涅茨基本模型,以八次全國森林資源連續(xù)清查山東省調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),針對森林蓄積量、森林覆蓋率與人均GDP關(guān)系進行研究,研究結(jié)果表明森林資源變化情況和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展?fàn)顩r存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系,森林覆蓋率和森林蓄積量與人均GDP的相關(guān)系數(shù)均分別大于0.9,相關(guān)性較強。(2)鑒于社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展成果體現(xiàn)在森林資源消長上會有一定時間的滯后,本研究還分析了經(jīng)濟發(fā)展對森林資源影響的滯后性規(guī)律。研究結(jié)果表明山東省森林蓄積量和森林覆蓋率對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展因素的響應(yīng)存在不同程度的滯后效應(yīng),森林覆蓋率的滯后年份為2年,森林蓄積量的滯后年份為7年。(3)通過對山東省森林資源與人均GDP模型分析發(fā)現(xiàn),在森林蓄積量方面表現(xiàn)為:在經(jīng)濟欠發(fā)達時,山東省森林資源生長良好,人為破壞少,蓄積增長快;經(jīng)濟發(fā)展到一定程度,工業(yè)快速發(fā)展,人類過于重視經(jīng)濟效益而加大了對森林資源開發(fā)利用,導(dǎo)致森林資源蓄積增長緩慢;在人均GDP達到5000元左右時,逐漸增強的生態(tài)意識和環(huán)保意識,在森林資源的保育上得以體現(xiàn),蓄積量的增長速度再次達到較高水平;在森林覆蓋率方面表現(xiàn)為:森林覆蓋率隨著經(jīng)濟的增長基本保持一個緩慢穩(wěn)定的增長速度,實測值和理論值除個別階段有較小的波動外基本契合,而且這個增長速度有減緩的趨勢,說明隨著經(jīng)濟的增長,人均GDP對森林覆蓋率的影響的邊際效益遞減,當(dāng)森林覆蓋率增長到某一最大值后,經(jīng)濟因素對其影響可能將會降到一個極低的水平甚至?xí)А?4)本研究將森林資源實測值與理論值做了對比分析,并對2013年至2017年的森林資源預(yù)測。結(jié)果顯示森林資源實測值和理論值的走勢基本一致。預(yù)計到2017年,森林覆蓋率可以達到17.97%,森林蓄積量達到43799.33萬m3。(5)在以上研究的基礎(chǔ)上,基于社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展趨勢和規(guī)律,對山東省林業(yè)發(fā)展提出了理論性的建議,為林業(yè)管理部門的政策制定提供依據(jù)。希望通過有關(guān)林業(yè)政策的不斷完善,隨著社會對生態(tài)文明追求愿望的增強和經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展,山東省的林業(yè)和森林資源數(shù)量和質(zhì)量以更高的效率和更健康的模式快速發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Forest resources is an important part of the world, natural resources with economic, social and ecological functions, pay more attention to the ecological environment of the human society, the importance of forest resources is more prominent. The dynamic changes of forest resources is affected by many factors, one of the important factors in the level of economic development in our country. The vast, populous, the existing forest resources in terms of quality and quantity is still difficult to meet the growing production needs. Changes of forest resources, correlation analysis and various social factors, is one of the exploration of the material civilization and the ecological civilization of the dependency relation, but also conducive to the coordinated development of the relationship between to explore the development of social economy and the forest resources and the environment. In recent years, the rapid economic development of Shandong Province, the industrialization level is rising, means that the land area of continuous construction Expansion of agricultural land gradually reduced, the contradiction between people and land more sharp, accompanied by excessive consumption of natural resources, resulting in conservation and development of forest resources in Shandong province is facing pressure to improve the quality of forest, biodiversity decline, forest ecosystem function can not meet the demand of the society. How to find the regional economic development and forest resources to build. Balance between protection and utilization is the focus of modern forestry development. The study of forest resources in Shandong Province as the research object, from the eight national forest inventory in Shandong Province Based on the investigation, the forest volume, the coverage rate of the relationship between GDP and the per capita forest, using the basic model of Kuznets research, analyzes the relationship between with the change of growth and decline of forest resources per capita GDP, lag and study of this effect are obtained. Based on the optimal model for the 2013 to 2017 The forest resource is predicted and analyzed. Through discussing the change of Shandong province forest resources trend and the law of economic development, in order to improve the quantity of forest resources in Shandong Province, to more effectively carry out the work of forestry, provide a basis for formulating scientific forestry policies. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) using the basic model of Kuznets, from the eight national continuous forest inventory data of Shandong Province Based on forest volume, forest coverage rate of GDP per capita and the relationship, the results of the study show that the changes of forest resources and economic development situation in positive correlation, the correlation coefficient of forest coverage and forest volume and per capita GDP were greater than 0.9, a strong correlation. (2) given the progress of economic development lags behind in the growth and decline of forest resources will have a certain period of time, this paper also analyzes the influence of economic development on forest resources 鐨勬粸鍚庢，

本文編號：1634519