【摘要】：本文以南寧市庫堤聯(lián)合的防洪工程體系為研究對(duì)象,考慮入庫洪水的隨機(jī)性及洪水隨機(jī)組合,采用蒙特卡羅法結(jié)合季節(jié)性一階自回歸模型計(jì)算南寧市防洪工程體系的防洪風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率,通過允許風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法判斷城市的防洪能力。 通過研究表明：采用季節(jié)性一階自回歸模型模擬百色水庫、區(qū)間入庫洪水,模擬的洪水特征參數(shù)與實(shí)測(cè)洪水特征參數(shù)相對(duì)誤差較小,均在5%以內(nèi),能較好的反映實(shí)測(cè)樣本的統(tǒng)計(jì)特性；采用模擬洪水與南寧控制斷面各頻率設(shè)計(jì)洪水按一定規(guī)則組合,經(jīng)南寧市防洪工程體系聯(lián)合調(diào)度,計(jì)算得體系的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率。兩方案計(jì)算結(jié)果表明：在僅考慮漫壩及漫堤破壞風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的情況下,當(dāng)南寧控制斷面發(fā)生50～250年一遇洪水時(shí),體系沒有出現(xiàn)漫壩、漫堤破壞風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；當(dāng)南寧控制斷面發(fā)生300年一遇及以上洪水時(shí),體系風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率增大,洪水頻率越小風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率越趨近于1。方案一計(jì)算的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率大于方案二,因?yàn)榉桨敢缓樗M合中,洪水主要來自區(qū)間,老口水庫防洪庫容較小,對(duì)南寧市防洪較為不利。同時(shí)也說明了方案一的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)率計(jì)算結(jié)果更接近于工程實(shí)際,其洪水組合方式基本符合南寧市洪水組成特點(diǎn)。以生命損失風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為指標(biāo),采用允許風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法計(jì)算體系風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在僅考慮漫壩及漫堤破壞風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的情況下,當(dāng)南寧控制斷面發(fā)生300年一遇洪水時(shí),體系風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過允許風(fēng)險(xiǎn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。綜合判斷,南寧市防洪工程體系防洪能力基本上達(dá)到250年一遇洪水標(biāo)準(zhǔn),略大于南寧市原規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)的200年一遇的防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the flood control engineering system of Nanning reservoir embankment is taken as the research object, considering the randomness of flood and random combination of flood, Monte Carlo method combined with seasonal first-order autoregression model is used to calculate the flood control risk rate of Nanning flood control engineering system, and the flood control capacity of Nanning city is judged by allowable risk analysis method. The results show that the seasonal first-order autoregression model is used to simulate the flood in Baise reservoir, and the relative error between the simulated flood characteristic parameters and the measured flood characteristic parameters is small, which is less than 5%, which can better reflect the statistical characteristics of the measured samples. By using the combination of simulated flood and Nanning control section frequency design flood according to certain rules, the risk rate of the system is calculated by the joint dispatching of Nanning flood control engineering system. The calculation results of the two schemes show that when the flood in Nanning control section occurs once in 50 years and 250 years, the system does not overrun the dam, and when the flood occurs more than 300 years in Nanning control section, the risk rate of the system increases, and the smaller the flood frequency is, the closer the risk rate is. The risk rate calculated in the first scheme is higher than that in the second scheme, because in the scheme-flood combination, the flood mainly comes from the interval, and the flood control capacity of the Lakou reservoir is small, which is disadvantageous to the flood control of Nanning City. At the same time, it is shown that the calculation results of the risk rate of scheme 1 are closer to the engineering practice, and the flood combination mode basically accords with the characteristics of flood composition in Nanning. Taking the risk of loss of life as the index, the allowable risk analysis method is used to calculate the system risk. When the flood occurs once in 300 years, the risk value of the system far exceeds the allowable risk standard when only the failure risk of overflowing dam and embankment is taken into account, and the risk value of the system is much higher than the allowable risk standard when there is a flood in Nanning control section once in 300 years. According to the comprehensive judgment, the flood control capacity of Nanning flood control engineering system basically reaches the flood control standard of 250 years, which is slightly larger than the flood control standard of 200 years originally planned and designed in Nanning City.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TU998.4;TV87

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本文編號(hào)：2499653