【摘要】：依據(jù)最嚴(yán)格水資源管理制度中水資源開發(fā)利用紅線指標(biāo)——用水總量的影響因素特征及其變化規(guī)律,對(duì)其提出綜合運(yùn)用時(shí)差相關(guān)分析與多元回歸模型的預(yù)測(cè)分析方法,該方法特點(diǎn)是在時(shí)差相關(guān)分析法鑒別出先行影響因子的基礎(chǔ)上,再建立多元回歸模型預(yù)測(cè)用水總量。以太湖流域?yàn)閷?shí)例,通過時(shí)差相關(guān)分析法篩選出與區(qū)域用水總量相關(guān)的人口、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)比、農(nóng)田面積、人均用水量、工業(yè)用水量等8個(gè)預(yù)警指標(biāo),再借助SPSS軟件建立多元線性回歸分析預(yù)測(cè)模型,模型檢驗(yàn)表明該方法具有較好的擬合度和預(yù)測(cè)精度。通過該模型方法預(yù)測(cè)了太湖流域2015年及2020年用水總量,并分析了其變化趨勢(shì),所用方法及其計(jì)算成果可為太湖流域水資源承載能力評(píng)估提供參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:According to the influencing factors and changing rules of total water consumption, the red line index of water resources development and utilization in the strictest water resources management system, this paper puts forward the prediction and analysis method of comprehensive utilization time difference correlation analysis and multiple regression model. The characteristic of this method is to establish a multiple regression model to predict the total amount of water on the basis of identifying the antecedent influencing factors by the method of time difference correlation analysis. Taking Taihu Lake basin as an example, eight early warning indexes, such as population, industrial structure ratio, farmland area, per capita water consumption and industrial water consumption, were selected by means of time difference correlation analysis, which are related to the total amount of water used in the region. With the help of SPSS software, the prediction model of multiple linear regression analysis is established. The model test shows that the method has good fitting degree and prediction precision. The total amount of water used in the Taihu Lake Basin in 2015 and 2020 is predicted by this model method, and its changing trend is analyzed. The method used and its calculation results can provide a reference basis for the assessment of the carrying capacity of water resources in the Taihu Lake Basin.
【作者單位】： 揚(yáng)州大學(xué);
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51379181)
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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