【摘要】：我國洪水災(zāi)害頻繁發(fā)生,帶來巨大的生命財(cái)產(chǎn)損失,嚴(yán)重威脅經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。為減輕洪災(zāi)損失,降低洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),實(shí)現(xiàn)由控制洪水向洪水管理的轉(zhuǎn)變,需要防洪工程措施和非工程措施綜合運(yùn)用。洪水災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)可以全面掌握區(qū)域洪災(zāi)狀況,對于提高民眾風(fēng)險(xiǎn)意識(shí)、規(guī)范土地合理利用、促進(jìn)工程措施與非工程措施的科學(xué)制定等具有重要意義。本文以現(xiàn)有的洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)理論為基礎(chǔ),以復(fù)州河下游段為研究對象,將洪水?dāng)?shù)值模擬方法與地理信息系統(tǒng)結(jié)合,從洪水災(zāi)害的危險(xiǎn)性和易損性兩方面探討洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法,對研究區(qū)域的洪災(zāi)危險(xiǎn)性和易損性進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià),并制定了相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理對策。 本文研究了洪水災(zāi)害系統(tǒng)理論,分析了洪災(zāi)系統(tǒng)中的致災(zāi)因子、孕災(zāi)環(huán)境和承災(zāi)體因素。對洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的三要素洪水危險(xiǎn)性、承災(zāi)體暴露性、承災(zāi)體易損性進(jìn)行研究,分析對比了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的常用方法,選擇數(shù)值模擬與地理信息系統(tǒng)結(jié)合的方法進(jìn)行研究區(qū)的洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)。 應(yīng)用數(shù)值模擬和歷史洪水兩種方法進(jìn)行了洪災(zāi)危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)研究。洪水?dāng)?shù)值模擬以設(shè)計(jì)洪水資料和地形等數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),建立四個(gè)頻率(0.5%、1%、2%、5%)洪水的泛濫模擬模型,以模擬結(jié)果中的淹沒水深為主要指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)劃分研究區(qū)洪水危險(xiǎn)性,完成四個(gè)頻率洪水的危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)。歷史洪水法在進(jìn)行歷史洪水調(diào)查的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行,利用2012年暴雨洪水洪痕數(shù)據(jù),結(jié)合研究區(qū)DEM數(shù)據(jù)在ArcGIS中進(jìn)行空間分析,得到典型洪水的淹沒水深分布,以此進(jìn)行了典型歷史洪水的危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)。兩種方法應(yīng)用于研究區(qū)洪水危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)取得了較好效果。 利用GIS進(jìn)行了基于格網(wǎng)思想的洪災(zāi)易損性評(píng)價(jià)。通過解譯衛(wèi)星遙感圖像和地形圖確定研究區(qū)地物類型分布,結(jié)合淹沒情況選擇早地、水田、園地、住宅用地、漁業(yè)用地、工礦用地六類承災(zāi)體,通過實(shí)地調(diào)查并參考其他研究成果確定了各類承災(zāi)體在不同淹沒水深的洪災(zāi)損失率,結(jié)合水深分布數(shù)據(jù)利用GIS完成易損性評(píng)價(jià),得到不同頻率洪水時(shí)易損性分布及不同易損性區(qū)域面積的變化規(guī)律。探討了通過承災(zāi)體單位面積價(jià)值估算洪災(zāi)損失的方法,并以研究區(qū)旱地為例計(jì)算了不同頻率洪水時(shí)的旱地的洪災(zāi)損失。 最后,進(jìn)行了洪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理對策的研究。在目前風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理對策的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)得到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖,制定了洪災(zāi)緊急搶險(xiǎn)方案；進(jìn)行了點(diǎn)線結(jié)合型的洪災(zāi)避險(xiǎn)分析,綜合考慮淹沒水深、到達(dá)時(shí)間、受災(zāi)村莊分布、道路等情況,應(yīng)用GIS網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析功能,制定了洪災(zāi)避險(xiǎn)逃生路線,并計(jì)算各路線的撤離時(shí)間,為洪災(zāi)緊急避險(xiǎn)提供科學(xué)的參考。
[Abstract]:Flood disaster frequently occurs in our country, which brings huge loss of life and property, and seriously threatens the steady development of economy and society. In order to reduce flood losses, reduce flood risk and realize the transition from flood control to flood management, flood control engineering measures and non-engineering measures should be used comprehensively. Flood hazard risk assessment can master the situation of regional flood disaster in an all-round way, which is of great significance for raising the public's risk awareness, standardizing the rational use of land, and promoting the scientific formulation of engineering and non-engineering measures. Based on the existing flood risk assessment theory and taking the lower reaches of Fuzhou River as the research object, this paper combines the flood numerical simulation method with GIS, and discusses the flood risk assessment method from the hazard and vulnerability of flood disaster. The risk and vulnerability of flood in the study area are evaluated, and the corresponding risk management countermeasures are made. In this paper, the theory of flood disaster system is studied, and the disaster-causing factors, disaster environment and disaster-bearing body factors in flood disaster system are analyzed. This paper studies the three elements of flood risk, such as flood risk, exposure of disaster bearing body, vulnerability of disaster bearing body, and analyzes and compares the common methods of risk assessment. The method of combining numerical simulation with GIS is selected to evaluate the flood risk in the study area. Two methods, numerical simulation and historical flood, are used to evaluate the flood risk. Flood numerical simulation is based on design flood data and topographic data, and flood simulation models with four frequencies (0.5% and 2%) are established. The flood risk of the study area is divided into four frequency flood risk assessment based on the flood depth in the simulation results. Based on the investigation of historical flood, the historical flood method is applied to the spatial analysis in ArcGIS with the flood trace data of 2012 rainstorm and DEM data, and the distribution of submergence depth of typical flood is obtained. Based on this, the risk assessment of typical historical flood is carried out. The two methods have been applied to the flood risk assessment in the study area. The vulnerability evaluation of flood disaster based on grid is carried out by using GIS. Through the interpretation of satellite remote sensing images and topographic maps to determine the distribution of the types of features in the study area, combined with the inundation situation to select early, paddy, garden, residential land, fishery land, industrial and mining land six types of disaster bearing bodies, Through field investigation and referring to other research results, the flood loss rate of various types of disaster bearing bodies at different submergence depths is determined, and the vulnerability evaluation is completed by using GIS combined with water depth distribution data. The distribution of vulnerability and the variation of the area of the region with different frequency of flood are obtained. The method of estimating flood loss by unit area value of disaster bearing body is discussed, and the flood loss of dryland with different frequency flood is calculated by taking dryland of study area as an example. Finally, the countermeasures of flood risk management are studied. On the basis of the current risk management countermeasures, combined with the risk map obtained from risk assessment, a flood emergency rescue plan was formulated. In this paper, the dot-line combined flood risk avoidance analysis is carried out. Considering comprehensively the flood depth, arrival time, distribution of affected villages, roads and so on, the GIS network analysis function is used to formulate the flood risk escape route and calculate the evacuation time of each route. To provide a scientific reference for flood emergency risk prevention.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV122

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本文編號(hào)：2425622