【摘要】：我國(guó)西南地區(qū)自然條件惡劣，是地質(zhì)災(zāi)害最嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)。隨著西南水電工程的大規(guī)模開發(fā)，將改變現(xiàn)有地質(zhì)條件的平衡現(xiàn)狀、進(jìn)而引發(fā)新的滑坡災(zāi)害發(fā)生。隨著相關(guān)科學(xué)理論與技術(shù)的迅速發(fā)展，開展滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性研究將為西南地區(qū)防災(zāi)減災(zāi)提供重要依據(jù)。目前，鑒于滑坡災(zāi)害孕育環(huán)境的多樣性和隱蔽性，誘發(fā)條件的復(fù)雜性和隨機(jī)性，滑坡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性影響因子的定量評(píng)價(jià)尚在研究探討之中；針對(duì)庫(kù)岸滑坡，，庫(kù)水位的時(shí)空變化對(duì)滑坡的穩(wěn)定性有不同的影響，又將進(jìn)一步加劇滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的不確定性。針對(duì)以上問題，本論文以金沙江烏東德水電站庫(kù)區(qū)庫(kù)岸滑坡為研究背景，開展庫(kù)岸滑坡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性研究，取得了以下研究成果： （1）在資料搜集與整理、野外調(diào)查與分析基礎(chǔ)上，分析了烏東德庫(kù)區(qū)典型滑坡災(zāi)害基本特征及災(zāi)害發(fā)育分布特征，研究了庫(kù)岸滑坡災(zāi)害成因機(jī)制。 （2）建立了烏東德庫(kù)區(qū)庫(kù)岸滑坡災(zāi)害易發(fā)性、易損性評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系、指標(biāo)體系分級(jí)表，提出各指標(biāo)定量化及標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理方法及針對(duì)庫(kù)區(qū)單體滑坡危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)的評(píng)價(jià)方法體系。運(yùn)用層次分析方法計(jì)算評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重，運(yùn)用可拓學(xué)理論分別對(duì)庫(kù)區(qū)進(jìn)行了滑坡災(zāi)害的易發(fā)性、易損性評(píng)估及分區(qū)。 （3）基于前人的半定量分析等研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合易發(fā)性和易損性分區(qū)特征，在GIS空間分析功能的平臺(tái)下對(duì)庫(kù)岸滑坡進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性評(píng)估及分區(qū)，提出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果劃分為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性高、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性中等、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性低、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性極低4級(jí)。 （4）基于離心機(jī)模型試驗(yàn)和數(shù)值模擬分析結(jié)果，研究了庫(kù)水位變化誘發(fā)滑坡災(zāi)害機(jī)理，進(jìn)而將庫(kù)水位變化作為滑坡易發(fā)性的動(dòng)態(tài)因子，研究受庫(kù)水位升降影響、庫(kù)岸滑坡失穩(wěn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性，實(shí)現(xiàn)了庫(kù)岸滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性動(dòng)態(tài)區(qū)劃。
[Abstract]:The natural condition of southwest China is very bad, and it is the most serious area of geological disaster. With the large-scale development of hydropower projects in southwest China, the balance of existing geological conditions will be changed and a new landslide disaster will occur. With the rapid development of relevant scientific theory and technology, the study of landslide hazard risk will provide an important basis for disaster prevention and mitigation in Southwest China. At present, in view of the diversity and concealment of the inoculation environment of landslide disaster and the complexity and randomness of induced conditions, the quantitative evaluation of the influencing factors of landslide risk is still under study. The temporal and spatial variation of reservoir water level has different effects on landslide stability, which will further aggravate the uncertainty of landslide disaster risk. In view of the above problems, this paper takes the landslide in the reservoir area of Wudongde Hydropower Station in Jinsha River as the research background, carries out the research on the risk of landslide in the reservoir bank, and obtains the following research results: (1) collecting and collating the data, On the basis of field investigation and analysis, this paper analyzes the basic characteristics of typical landslide disasters and their development and distribution in the reservoir area of Wudongde, and studies the mechanism of landslide disasters along the reservoir bank. (2) the evaluation index system of vulnerability and vulnerability of landslide in the reservoir bank of Wudongde reservoir area and the classification table of the index system are established. The quantitative and standardized treatment methods of each index and the evaluation method system of landslide risk assessment for single landslide in the reservoir area are put forward. The weight of the evaluation index is calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the vulnerability, vulnerability assessment and zoning of landslide disasters in the reservoir area are carried out by using extension theory. (3) based on the research results of semi-quantitative analysis, combined with the characteristics of vulnerability and vulnerability, the risk assessment and zoning of landslide in reservoir bank are carried out on the platform of GIS spatial analysis function. The results of risk assessment are classified as high risk, middle risk, low risk and very low risk. (4) based on the results of centrifuge model test and numerical simulation, the mechanism of landslide disaster induced by reservoir water level change is studied, and then the reservoir water level change is regarded as the dynamic factor of landslide vulnerability, and the influence of reservoir water level fluctuation is studied. The risk of landslide instability on the bank of reservoir is realized, and the dynamic regionalization of landslide hazard risk is realized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)江科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV221.2

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