發(fā)布時間：2018-12-12 13:54

【摘要】：基于增江中下游麒麟咀水文站1958年-1988年以及2006年-2014年的逐日徑流資料,根據(jù)各種基流分割方法的優(yōu)缺點,以及增江中下游地區(qū)水文地質(zhì)條件和徑流變化特征,首次采用加里寧試算法計算了該地區(qū)的基流量,并深入研究了該方法應(yīng)用過程中主觀因素對基流計算結(jié)果產(chǎn)生的影響。結(jié)果表明,參數(shù)的主觀差異化選取對加里寧試算法分割確定的河川基流量影響顯著。在假定合理范圍內(nèi)確定的退水系數(shù)β服從均勻分布時,對應(yīng)的比例系數(shù)B的分布并不會與之一致,基流量是在兩個參數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上計算的;不考慮主觀因素影響時,增江中下游的多年平均基流量為7.8億m~3,考慮主觀因素影響時,置信水平95%的置信區(qū)間為6.68~8.72億m~3,直接計算的結(jié)果位于95%的置信區(qū)間內(nèi),其對應(yīng)的保證率為41%。因此,考慮基流量計算的主觀不確定性不僅能夠用于校驗計算結(jié)果,同時可以提出該計算結(jié)果下的保證率,這將為地下水資源管理決策的制定提供重要的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Based on the daily runoff data of Kirinzui Hydrologic Station in the middle and lower reaches of Zengjiang River from 1958 to 1988 and from 2006 to 2014, according to the advantages and disadvantages of various basic flow segmentation methods, the hydrogeological conditions and runoff variation characteristics in the middle and lower reaches of Zengjiang River are discussed. For the first time, the basic flow rate in this area is calculated by using the Kalinen test algorithm, and the influence of subjective factors on the calculation results of the base flow is deeply studied. The results show that the subjective selection of parameters has a significant effect on the river base flow determined by the Galinning trial algorithm. The distribution of the proportional coefficient B is not consistent with the uniform distribution of the return coefficient 尾 given in a reasonable range, and the base flow rate is calculated on the basis of two parameters. When subjective factors are not taken into account, the annual average basic discharge of Zengjiang River is 780 million mm3. When subjective factors are considered, the confidence interval of 95% confidence level is 6.68 ~ 872 million mm3. The result of direct calculation is within 95% confidence interval, and the corresponding guarantee rate is 41%. Therefore, considering the subjective uncertainty of base flow calculation can not only be used to verify the calculation results, but also can put forward the guarantee rate under the calculation results, which will provide an important basis for the decision-making of groundwater resources management.
【作者單位】： 河海大學(xué)水文水資源學(xué)院;水利部水文局;南京市水資源管理中心;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金面上項目(41572210)~~
【分類號】：TV213.4
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本文編號：2374696