【摘要】：隨著人類對(duì)水資源的開發(fā)利用,包括水庫在內(nèi)的水利工程在不斷滿足人類經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)用水的同時(shí),也不斷加劇著對(duì)天然河流的影響,甚至日漸取代了天然河流的水文過程,對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境造成了不可忽視的影響。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的日益發(fā)展,這種因水資源供需矛盾及由于徑流調(diào)節(jié)而造成的自然流量模式改變所引起的生態(tài)環(huán)境問題愈發(fā)突出,引起了人類社會(huì)的更多關(guān)注,社會(huì)對(duì)于維持河流生態(tài)結(jié)構(gòu)和功能完整性的要求愈發(fā)強(qiáng)烈。如何合理的利用現(xiàn)有的工程,改善水庫管理和調(diào)度模式,維持社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)的同步穩(wěn)定發(fā)展,是當(dāng)今水庫調(diào)度的熱點(diǎn)問題。本文針對(duì)水庫的社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)-生態(tài)環(huán)境多目標(biāo)調(diào)度問題,在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)用水預(yù)測模型、河流生態(tài)流量模式評(píng)價(jià)、多目標(biāo)非線性調(diào)度規(guī)則篩選及其水文不確定條件下的可靠性分析等方面展開研究,以期提出更加合理的基于水文改變指標(biāo)(Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration,簡稱IHA)指標(biāo)的水庫經(jīng)濟(jì)-生態(tài)調(diào)度規(guī)則模式,豐富水庫調(diào)度理論和方法。論文首先調(diào)研了關(guān)于水庫生態(tài)用水調(diào)度的研究進(jìn)展,總結(jié)分析了主要研究動(dòng)態(tài)和學(xué)術(shù)路線,并以水庫調(diào)度規(guī)則的技術(shù)路線為基礎(chǔ)開展研究,主要包括:提出了社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)需水影響因子,建立了基于數(shù)據(jù)挖掘方法的城市需水預(yù)測模型,以IHA指標(biāo)體系為基礎(chǔ),評(píng)價(jià)了社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)供水單目標(biāo)模式下水利工程調(diào)度對(duì)河流生態(tài)水文因子的影響,分析了水庫供水對(duì)流量模式的改變及對(duì)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的影響;基于向量評(píng)價(jià)遺傳算法,建立了面向社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)-生態(tài)的多目標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)度模型,研究提出了分區(qū)下泄流量的水庫多目標(biāo)調(diào)度規(guī)則模式,有效提升了水庫優(yōu)化調(diào)度求解能力;分析了不同范數(shù)形式的經(jīng)濟(jì)-生態(tài)多目標(biāo)帕累托非劣解集特征,討論了不同范數(shù)對(duì)應(yīng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)-生態(tài)目標(biāo)內(nèi)涵及適應(yīng)空間;研究分析了水文不確定條件下優(yōu)化后的多目標(biāo)調(diào)度規(guī)則對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)供水和生態(tài)水文因子的滿足程度,討論了預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度對(duì)同時(shí)改善經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)及生態(tài)環(huán)境供水的有效性和可行性。本文以淮河流域白龜山水庫為例進(jìn)行了應(yīng)用研究,結(jié)果表明,所提出的水庫分區(qū)下泄流量的多目標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)度規(guī)則模式,可有效改善水庫多目標(biāo)非線性優(yōu)化調(diào)度求解能力,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)缺水-IHA生態(tài)水文因子改變型的多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化調(diào)度問題有效,為在競爭性水資源條件及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)條件下提高水資源利用效率,提供了技術(shù)上的參考。
[Abstract]:With the development and utilization of water resources, water conservancy projects, including reservoirs, not only satisfy human economic and social water use, but also aggravate the impact on natural rivers, and even replace the hydrological process of natural rivers day by day. The impact on the ecological environment can not be ignored. With the development of economy and society, the ecological and environmental problems caused by the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and the change of natural flow pattern caused by runoff regulation are becoming more and more prominent, which has aroused more attention of human society. The social requirements for maintaining the ecological structure and functional integrity of rivers are becoming increasingly strong. How to make rational use of existing projects, improve reservoir management and operation mode, and maintain the synchronous and stable development of social economy and ecology is a hot issue in reservoir operation nowadays. In this paper, in view of the multi-objective scheduling problem of the socio-economic ecological environment of reservoirs, the prediction model of socio-economic water use and the evaluation of the ecological discharge model of rivers are presented. The selection of multi-objective nonlinear dispatching rules and the reliability analysis under hydrological uncertainty are studied in order to propose a more reasonable (Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration, based on hydrological change index. The model of reservoir economic-ecological regulation based on IHA) enriches the theory and method of reservoir operation. Firstly, the paper investigates the research progress of the reservoir ecological water regulation, summarizes and analyzes the main research trends and academic routes, and carries out the research based on the technical route of the reservoir dispatching rules. The main contents are as follows: the influence factors of social and economic water demand are put forward, and the urban water demand prediction model based on data mining method is established, which is based on IHA index system. The effects of water conservancy engineering regulation on the ecological hydrological factors of rivers under the single objective mode of socio-economic water supply are evaluated, and the changes of reservoir water supply to the discharge mode and the effects on the ecosystem are analyzed. Based on the genetic algorithm of vector evaluation, the multi-objective risk dispatching model for social economy and ecology is established, and the multi-objective regulation model of reservoir discharge is proposed, which can effectively improve the ability of reservoir optimal operation. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the non-inferior solution set of multi-objective Pareto in different norm forms, and discusses the connotation and adaptation space of the economic-ecological objective corresponding to different norms. This paper studies and analyzes the degree of satisfaction of the optimized multi-objective regulation to the socio-economic water supply and eco-hydrological factors under the condition of hydrological uncertainty, and discusses the effectiveness and feasibility of forecasting and dispatching in improving the water supply of economic, social and ecological environment simultaneously. In this paper, the application of Baiguishan Reservoir in Huaihe River Basin is studied. The results show that the proposed multi-objective risk regulation model for reservoir drainage can effectively improve the multi-objective nonlinear optimal dispatching ability of the reservoir. It is effective to the multi-objective optimal scheduling problem of water-shortage and IHA eco-hydrological factors in economic society, and provides a technical reference for improving the efficiency of water resources utilization under competitive water resources and risk conditions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV697.11

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 董哲仁;孫東亞;趙進(jìn)勇;;水庫多目標(biāo)生態(tài)調(diào)度[J];水利水電技術(shù);2007年01期

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本文編號(hào)：2311951