TOPMODEL與新安江模型參數(shù)不確定性分析及其應(yīng)用
[Abstract]:Aiming at the adverse situation of frequent flood disaster and serious flood disaster loss in Diaojiang River Basin, this paper studies the flood forecasting scheme of Diaojiang River basin based on TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang model: using ArcGIS software, using AGREE algorithm to repair part of DEM in the basin. The flow direction, flow rate, slope, water system, topographic index and isochron of the Diaojiang River basin were extracted. The program of TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang model is designed and written by using C # computer language on Visual Studio2010 platform. The TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang models are applied to the Diaojiang river basin to provide scientific basis and technical support for making reasonable flood control decisions. The main parameters of TOPMODEL model, the sensitivity of sensitive parameters of Xinanjiang model and the sensitivity of regional sensitive parameters are analyzed by using universal likelihood uncertainty estimation method (GLUE),). With deterministic coefficient, Hong Feng discharge error and peak time difference as evaluation indexes, the general flood, big flood and super flood in Diaojiang River basin are analyzed, and the applicable range of main parameters of TOPMODEL model in Diaojiang river basin is obtained. Abstract from 2008 to 2013, 8 floods are used as TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang model rate regular floods, 2014-2015 6 floods as validation period floods, using rainfall, The simulation results of TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang models are as follows: the eligible rate of TOPMODEL model is 87.5 times, the average deterministic coefficient is 0.83, and the eligible rate of 6 floods is 83.3% during the verification period. The average deterministic coefficient is 0.86, which reaches Grade B accuracy of hydrological forecast. The eligible rate of Xinanjiang model is 62.5, the average deterministic coefficient is 0.7, the qualified rate of 6 floods is 66.7 and the average deterministic coefficient is 0.77, which reaches the accuracy of grade C of hydrological forecast. The simulation results show that the constructed TOPMODEL and Xinanjiang model forecasting schemes can provide reference for flood forecasting in Diaojiang River Basin.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:廣西大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2016
【分類號(hào)】:P338
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