【摘要】：洪水預(yù)報是指根據(jù)產(chǎn)匯流機制原理構(gòu)建水文模型,并對流域內(nèi)洪水各項特征要素進行模擬預(yù)報的一系列過程。流域洪水預(yù)報是否可靠主要依據(jù)以下兩點:模擬結(jié)構(gòu)能否反映流域徑流形成物理過程;參數(shù)率定、檢驗及應(yīng)用是否能否達到所需精度標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。目前,實時洪水預(yù)報只能在短期防汛中起到一定的作用,但是針對中小流域,由于匯流時間過快,有效的預(yù)報時間相應(yīng)減少。因此考慮流域內(nèi)關(guān)鍵的水工建筑物的設(shè)計防洪標(biāo)準(zhǔn),預(yù)估災(zāi)害規(guī)模,減少損失,并對其進行進一步的設(shè)計洪水計算是必要的。將水文模型預(yù)報的結(jié)果應(yīng)用到流域設(shè)計洪水計算,為設(shè)計洪水的計算提供了一種新方法,也應(yīng)成為未來水文預(yù)報的一個大的趨勢。根據(jù)下墊面狀況,山東省主要地形地貌可涵蓋為一般山丘區(qū)、巖溶山丘區(qū)、一般平原區(qū)三種。與之對應(yīng)分別選取其典型流域太河流域、田莊流域、劉莊閘流域。本文就是針對以上三種不同地貌形態(tài)的流域,分別在其上進行不同模型的產(chǎn)匯流演算,并對歷史大洪水進行演算預(yù)報與設(shè)計洪水的做進一步研究,從而探討模型推廣與設(shè)計洪水計算的新思路。在對上述三個流域的地理條件與氣候水文資料進行分析后,選取了新安江模型、水箱模型、SCS模型三種模型并確定相應(yīng)模型結(jié)構(gòu),而后代入流域相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),調(diào)整模型參數(shù),進行產(chǎn)匯流模擬與應(yīng)用比較。在此基礎(chǔ)上分析了三種模型在用于設(shè)計洪水預(yù)報的可行性,研究成果表明:1、在次洪預(yù)報精度上,受制于流域洪水資料年限較短與降雨強度不均,三種模型對太河水庫流域和田莊水庫流域的模擬對次洪的預(yù)報只能勉強達到相關(guān)預(yù)報標(biāo)準(zhǔn),但對一般平原的劉莊閘流域不能滿足洪水預(yù)報要求。2、在設(shè)計洪水計算中,將分時段設(shè)計降雨數(shù)據(jù)代入率定好參數(shù)的三類模型中,并與《山東省水文圖集》中設(shè)計洪水計算結(jié)果與流域原有設(shè)計洪水標(biāo)準(zhǔn)進行比較,其中選用的新安江模型與SCS模型設(shè)計洪水結(jié)果較為可靠,水箱模型模擬結(jié)果對洪峰突變的過程模擬效果較差。
[Abstract]:Flood forecasting is a series of processes that construct hydrological model according to the principle of runoff yield and confluence mechanism and simulate and forecast each characteristic element of flood in river basin. The reliability of flood forecasting is mainly based on the following two points: whether the simulated structure can reflect the physical process of runoff formation in the basin, and whether the parameter rate can be determined, tested and applied to meet the required precision standard. At present, the real-time flood forecast can only play a certain role in the short-term flood control, but for the middle and small river basins, the effective forecasting time is reduced because of the rapid confluence time. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the design flood control standards of key hydraulic structures in the basin, to estimate the scale of disasters, to reduce losses, and to carry out further design flood calculation. Applying the results of hydrological model forecast to the design flood calculation of river basin provides a new method for the calculation of design flood, and it should also become a big trend of hydrological forecast in the future. According to the condition of underlying surface, the main landforms of Shandong Province can be divided into three types: general hilly area, karst hilly area and general plain area. The typical watershed of Taihe river, Tianzhuang basin and Liuzhuang sluice basin are selected respectively. In this paper, according to the three kinds of river basins with different geomorphological forms, we carry out different models of runoff generation and confluence calculation, and do further research on the prediction of historical flood and design flood. Thus, a new idea of model generalization and design flood calculation is discussed. After analyzing the geographical conditions and climatic and hydrological data of the three basins mentioned above, three models, Xinanjiang model, water tank model and SCS model, are selected and the corresponding model structure is determined, and then relevant data are added to the basin to adjust the model parameters. The simulation and application of production and confluence were compared. On this basis, the feasibility of the three models in designing flood forecast is analyzed. The results show that: 1, the accuracy of flood forecasting is limited by the short duration of flood data and uneven rainfall intensity. The simulation of three models for Taihe reservoir basin and Tianzhuang reservoir basin can only barely meet the relevant forecast standard, but for the Liuzhuang sluice basin in general plain, it can not meet the flood forecast requirements. 2. In the design flood calculation, In this paper, three kinds of models for determining the input rate of the designed rainfall data in different periods are compared with the design flood calculation results in Shandong Hydrological Atlas and the original design flood standards in the basin. The design flood results of Xin'anjiang model and SCS model are reliable, and the simulation results of water tank model are not good for Hong Feng's sudden change process.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV122;TV124

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