【摘要】：錢塘江在杭州灣處呈現(xiàn)的喇叭口形狀造就其獨(dú)特的風(fēng)景錢塘江大潮。但是，在人們領(lǐng)略大自然這一奇特魅力的同時(shí)，錢塘江涌潮也給人們帶來了不可忽視的災(zāi)害，幾乎每年都會(huì)發(fā)生多起錢塘江潮水卷人事件。如果能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)對(duì)涌潮的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)報(bào)，就可以增強(qiáng)防災(zāi)預(yù)案的針對(duì)性和可操作性，方便相關(guān)部門開展防潮工作，從而減少事故的發(fā)生。文中提出一種基于水位數(shù)據(jù)的“黑箱”建模方法，并在該方法的基礎(chǔ)上開發(fā)了錢塘江涌潮自動(dòng)檢測(cè)與實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)，其主要工作如下： （1）介紹了基于統(tǒng)計(jì)規(guī)律的涌潮預(yù)報(bào)方法、基于調(diào)和分析的涌潮預(yù)報(bào)方法和基于水動(dòng)力學(xué)的涌潮預(yù)報(bào)方法。針對(duì)上述三種預(yù)報(bào)方法存在的問題，研究一種具有自學(xué)習(xí)、自適應(yīng)功能的預(yù)報(bào)算法。文中提出了一種基于歷史水位數(shù)據(jù)的“黑箱”建模方法，通過“黑箱”建模最終確定了判斷涌潮到達(dá)的具體條件，并且提出了相應(yīng)的涌潮分段實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)方法，以滿足錢塘江涌潮預(yù)報(bào)的需求。 （2）針對(duì)歷史水位數(shù)據(jù)中存在的問題（數(shù)據(jù)擾動(dòng)、不符合規(guī)律等），對(duì)錢塘江進(jìn)行實(shí)地調(diào)研，分析流速輔助判斷的必要性，并基于Android操作系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)流速檢測(cè)裝置以采集SurfaceVelocity Radar (SVR)流速儀數(shù)據(jù)。對(duì)涌潮自動(dòng)監(jiān)測(cè)站進(jìn)行了升級(jí)試點(diǎn)改造，新增SVR流速儀并設(shè)計(jì)適配器以消除紊流對(duì)流速測(cè)量的影響。 （3）將采集到的現(xiàn)場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)通過GPRS/GSM網(wǎng)絡(luò)傳輸?shù)剿恼痉⻊?wù)器。開發(fā)錢塘江涌潮預(yù)報(bào)軟件，對(duì)文中提出的涌潮分段實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)方法進(jìn)行具體實(shí)現(xiàn)，并將預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果存至實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中，以便預(yù)報(bào)信息發(fā)布。 （4）為方便對(duì)涌潮實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)信息的查看，對(duì)錢塘江涌潮實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)網(wǎng)站進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)開發(fā)。通過調(diào)用google地圖以及文本形式兩種方式，實(shí)現(xiàn)預(yù)報(bào)信息的顯示模塊；設(shè)計(jì)管理員控制模塊，系統(tǒng)管理員可通過該網(wǎng)站對(duì)預(yù)報(bào)信息進(jìn)行修正，方便其對(duì)涌潮預(yù)報(bào)信息的管理。 （5）對(duì)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行實(shí)際運(yùn)行，，以測(cè)試該預(yù)報(bào)方法的性能。將預(yù)報(bào)結(jié)果與實(shí)際涌潮信息進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析可知，文中提出的預(yù)報(bào)方法具有較高的精度，滿足了人們對(duì)錢塘江涌潮實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)的需求。
[Abstract]:Qiantang River in Hangzhou Bay in the shape of a bell-mouth to create its unique scenery Qiantang River tide. However, while people appreciate the peculiar charm of nature, the tidal current of Qiantang River also brings people disasters that can not be ignored. Almost every year, there are many incidents of people in Qiantang River. If the accurate prediction of tidal bore can be realized, the pertinence and maneuverability of disaster prevention plan can be enhanced, and it is convenient for relevant departments to carry out dampproof work, thus reducing the occurrence of accidents. In this paper, a "black box" modeling method based on water level data is proposed, and a system for automatic detection and real-time prediction of tidal bore in Qiantang River is developed on the basis of this method. The main work is as follows: (1) the methods of tidal bore prediction based on statistical law, tidal bore prediction method based on harmonic analysis and hydrodynamic method are introduced. Aiming at the problems of the three forecasting methods mentioned above, a prediction algorithm with self-learning and adaptive function is studied. In this paper, a "black box" modeling method based on historical water level data is proposed. Through the "black box" modeling, the specific conditions for judging the arrival of tidal bore are finally determined, and the corresponding real-time prediction method of tidal bore section is put forward. In order to meet the demand of tidal bore forecast in Qiantang River. (2) in view of the problems existing in the historical water level data (data disturbance, not in accordance with the law, etc.), the paper carries out field investigation on Qiantang River, and analyzes the necessity of velocity assistant judgment. And based on the Android operating system, the device is designed to collect the data of SurfaceVelocity Radar (SVR) current meter. The automatic monitoring station of tidal bore was upgraded and the SVR current meter was added and an adapter was designed to eliminate the impact of turbulence on the velocity measurement. (3) the collected field data was transmitted to the hydrologic station server via the GPRS/GSM network. The software for forecasting tidal bore in Qiantang River is developed, and the method of real-time forecast of tidal bore in this paper is realized in detail, and the forecast results are stored in the real time forecast database. (4) for the convenience of viewing the real-time forecast information of tidal bore, the real-time forecasting website of tidal bore in Qiantang River is designed and developed. By calling google map and text form, the display module of forecast information is realized, and the administrator control module is designed, and the system administrator can modify the forecast information through the website. It is convenient to manage the tidal bore forecast information. (5) the system is operated in practice to test the performance of the forecasting method. By comparing the forecast results with the actual tidal bore information, it can be seen that the method proposed in this paper has a high accuracy and meets the demand of real time forecast of tidal bore in Qiantang River.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：杭州電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P332.3;P338

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 劉靜紈;最小二乘法在系統(tǒng)辨識(shí)中的應(yīng)用[J];北京建筑工程學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2004年03期

2 曾劍;熊紹隆;潘存鴻;林炳堯;;運(yùn)用神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論研究錢塘江涌潮的影響因素[J];長(zhǎng)江科學(xué)院院報(bào);2006年05期

3 張伯虎;陳沈良;谷國(guó)傳;;廣西沿岸重點(diǎn)港灣的潮型與潮汐特征[J];海洋學(xué)研究;2010年03期

4 張廣瑩,鄧正隆;小波分析在系統(tǒng)辨識(shí)中的應(yīng)用[J];電機(jī)與控制學(xué)報(bào);2002年01期

5 程春田,歐春平;流域防洪決策支持系統(tǒng)集成管理[J];大連理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2001年01期

6 王志強(qiáng);;WFH-2型細(xì)井式遙測(cè)水位計(jì)在黃羊河灌區(qū)的應(yīng)用[J];甘肅農(nóng)業(yè);2009年10期

7 黃辰虎,侯世喜,黃謨濤,歐陽(yáng)永忠,暴景陽(yáng),許家琨;潮汐非調(diào)和常數(shù)的計(jì)算及應(yīng)用[J];海洋測(cè)繪;2005年04期

8 潘存鴻;林炳堯;毛獻(xiàn)忠;;錢塘江涌潮二維數(shù)值模擬[J];海洋工程;2007年01期

9 謝東風(fēng);潘存鴻;吳修廣;;基于FVCOM模式錢塘江河口涌潮三維數(shù)值模擬研究[J];海洋工程;2011年01期

10 宋志堯,嚴(yán)以新,茅麗華;潮汐調(diào)和分析的一種算法[J];海洋工程;1997年03期

本文編號(hào)：2264211