【摘要】：針對(duì)松花江干流汛期洪水的特點(diǎn)以及松花江流域防洪減災(zāi)的需求,采用多元門限回歸模型建立了松花江干流肇源、三家子、澇洲、木蘭、富錦5個(gè)水位站的水位預(yù)報(bào)模型;在多元門限回歸模型的基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行改進(jìn),得到混合門限回歸模型,并以此建立松花江干流5個(gè)站的水位預(yù)報(bào)模型。兩種模型的預(yù)報(bào)因子均通過(guò)AIC準(zhǔn)則和DW檢驗(yàn)法篩選確定,并用最小二乘法估算模型的參數(shù)。選取各水位站2008—2012年汛期的水位資料分別率定相應(yīng)的水位預(yù)報(bào)模型,選取2013年汛期的水位資料對(duì)各個(gè)率定的模型進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。率定和驗(yàn)證的結(jié)果表明:多元門限回歸模型的預(yù)報(bào)精度偏低,而混合門限回歸模型的預(yù)報(bào)精度高,且有一定的通用性,適用于水位預(yù)報(bào)。
[Abstract]:In view of the characteristics of flood in flood season of Songhua River and the demand of flood control and disaster reduction in Songhua River basin, the water level forecast model of 5 water level stations of Songhua River mainstream, Sanjiazi, waterlogging Island, Mulan and Fujin is established by using multivariate threshold regression model. Based on the multivariate threshold regression model, the mixed threshold regression model is obtained, and the water level prediction model of 5 stations in Songhua River is established. The prediction factors of the two models are determined by AIC criterion and DW test, and the parameters of the model are estimated by the least square method. The corresponding water level prediction models are selected from the water level data of the flood season from 2008 to 2012, and the water level data of the 2013 flood season are selected to verify the models. The results of rate determination and verification show that the prediction accuracy of multivariate threshold regression model is low, while that of mixed threshold regression model is high and universal, so it is suitable for water level prediction.
【作者單位】： 河海大學(xué)水文水資源與水利工程科學(xué)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;黑龍江省水文局;
【基金】：國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2016YFC0402704) 水文水資源與水利工程科學(xué)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室專項(xiàng)經(jīng)費(fèi)項(xiàng)目(1069-514031112)
【分類號(hào)】：P338

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