【摘要】：城鎮(zhèn)化是發(fā)展中國家21世紀(jì)的主要發(fā)展趨勢,在很大程度上主導(dǎo)著人口、經(jīng)濟(jì)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等各方面的轉(zhuǎn)變,成為拉動用水量增長的關(guān)鍵因素。城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中城鎮(zhèn)居民收入、人口結(jié)構(gòu)、人口密度和人力資本等因素的變化,使得城鎮(zhèn)化并非表現(xiàn)為線性發(fā)展規(guī)律,最終導(dǎo)致用水量也存在相應(yīng)的門檻效應(yīng)并呈現(xiàn)階段性增長特征。本文首先對我國各地區(qū)城鎮(zhèn)化水平和用水量進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,從地區(qū)層面直觀描述我國城鎮(zhèn)化水平和用水量的變化特征,然后采用面板門檻模型研究城鎮(zhèn)化、城鎮(zhèn)居民人均收入、人力資本、城市人口密度和人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對于用水量的門檻效應(yīng),搜尋在城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中各人口因素對用水量影響的門檻點(diǎn)并分析階段性變化特征,最后結(jié)合PVAR模型研究城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中各人口因素對用水量的動態(tài)影響和作用機(jī)制。門檻回歸結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn):城鎮(zhèn)化對用水量的影響具有明顯的階段性特征,分別以城鎮(zhèn)化和人均收入為門檻變量,超越門檻點(diǎn)后城鎮(zhèn)化對用水量的彈性系數(shù)分別呈現(xiàn)先升后降的倒"U"型和先降后升的正"U"型變化趨勢;以人力資本為門檻變化量,城鎮(zhèn)化對用水量的拉動作用則不斷減弱。脈沖響應(yīng)結(jié)果顯示:城鎮(zhèn)化對用水量具有長期且穩(wěn)定的正向沖擊,而居民收入和人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對用水量的正向沖擊則逐漸收斂于零,人口密度和人力資本對用水量均具有負(fù)向沖擊,且人口密度的負(fù)效應(yīng)不斷增強(qiáng),而人力資本的負(fù)效應(yīng)不斷減弱。方差分解的結(jié)果表明,目前我國用水量的增長受自身的影響較大,除年齡結(jié)構(gòu)外,人口密度、居民收入、人力資本和城鎮(zhèn)化也具有小規(guī)模的貢獻(xiàn)程度。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the main development trend of developing countries in the 21st century, and to a large extent, it leads to the transformation of population, economy and industrial structure, and becomes the key factor to promote the growth of water consumption. This paper firstly makes a statistical analysis of the level of urbanization and water consumption in various regions of China, describes the change characteristics of urbanization level and water consumption intuitively from the regional level, and then uses the panel threshold model to study the city. The threshold effect of urbanization, per capita income of urban residents, human capital, urban population density and population age structure on water consumption is studied. The threshold points of population factors affecting water consumption in the process of urbanization are searched and the characteristics of periodic changes are analyzed. Finally, the dynamics of population factors on water consumption in the process of urbanization is studied with PVAR model. The results of threshold regression show that the impact of urbanization on water consumption has obvious periodic characteristics, and the elasticity coefficient of urbanization on water consumption shows an inverted U-shaped trend of first rising and then falling and a positive U-shaped trend of first falling and then rising, respectively, with urbanization and per capita income as threshold variables. The results of impulse response show that urbanization has a long-term and stable positive impact on water consumption, while the positive impact of residents'income and population age structure on water consumption gradually converges to zero, population density and human capital have a negative impact on water consumption. The results of variance decomposition show that the growth of water consumption in China is greatly influenced by itself, besides age structure, population density, resident income, human capital and urbanization also have small-scale contribution.
【作者單位】： 河海大學(xué)商學(xué)院;河海大學(xué)企業(yè)管理學(xué)院;常州大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家社會科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“用水效率異質(zhì)特征下跨區(qū)域多部門水權(quán)配置及政策”(批準(zhǔn)號:14BGL097),“基于降雨量指數(shù)保險(xiǎn)的農(nóng)業(yè)干旱風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制及對策研究”(批準(zhǔn)號:15BGL128) 2014年度江蘇高�！扒嗨{(lán)工程”優(yōu)秀青年骨干教師培養(yǎng)對象資助項(xiàng)目“多區(qū)域多部門的水權(quán)配置研究” 2016年度江蘇省“333工程”第三層次人才培養(yǎng)項(xiàng)目“虛擬水與實(shí)體水的空間配置研究”
【分類號】：TV213.4
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本文編號：2188393