【摘要】：高堆石壩施工擋水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的時(shí)變性和填筑進(jìn)度的不確定性增加了壩體施工期度汛方案決策的難度。針對(duì)高堆石壩施工度汛過程動(dòng)態(tài)變化的特點(diǎn),隨機(jī)模擬大壩擋水風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并將其劃分3個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀態(tài)以判斷度汛行動(dòng)。以整個(gè)度汛施工期成本最小化為目標(biāo),考慮洪水來流、填筑進(jìn)度和決策成本等關(guān)鍵因素,建立基于馬爾科夫過程的高堆石壩施工度汛決策模型,分析逐月大壩擋水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀態(tài)下的度汛策略、成本函數(shù)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移概率。在檢驗(yàn)其馬爾科夫特性基礎(chǔ)上,采用決策迭代算法求解每一決策時(shí)刻狀態(tài)下的最優(yōu)施工度汛方案及度汛過程的決策路徑。工程實(shí)例分析表明,該決策模型對(duì)高堆石壩施工度汛計(jì)劃策略的調(diào)控結(jié)果符合實(shí)際施工度汛高程變化情況,為指導(dǎo)快速準(zhǔn)確制定大壩施工度汛方案提供了參考。
[Abstract]:The time variation of water retaining risk and the uncertainty of filling schedule in construction of high rockfill dam make it difficult to make decision of flood project during the construction period of high rockfill dam. According to the characteristics of the dynamic change of flood process in construction of high rockfill dam, the risk of dam retaining is simulated randomly, and three risk states are divided to judge the flood action. With the aim of minimizing the cost of the whole flood construction period, considering the key factors such as flood flow, filling schedule and decision cost, the decision model of high rockfill dam construction flood making based on Markov process is established. This paper analyzes the flood control strategy, cost function and risk state transition probability of monthly dam water retaining risk state. On the basis of testing its Markov characteristics, the decision iterative algorithm is used to solve the optimal construction flood plan and the decision path of the flood process at each decision time. The analysis of engineering examples shows that the control result of the decision model for flood plan strategy of high rockfill dam is in line with the change of flood elevation in actual construction, which provides a reference for the rapid and accurate formulation of flood plan for dam construction.
【作者單位】： 三峽大學(xué)水利與環(huán)境學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51509143) 長(zhǎng)江科學(xué)院開放研究基金項(xiàng)目(CKWV2016398/KY)
【分類號(hào)】：TV51;TV87

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 于艷玲,袁偉紅,齊占東;柳石壩、堆石壩施工和運(yùn)行中應(yīng)注意的幾個(gè)問題[J];黑龍江水專學(xué)報(bào);2004年01期

2 劉珊珊,周宜紅,劉全,胡志根,賀昌海;堆石壩施工的實(shí)時(shí)動(dòng)態(tài)仿真系統(tǒng)研究[J];系統(tǒng)仿真學(xué)報(bào);2004年11期

3 李曉峰;陳東;;堆石壩施工中的土石方動(dòng)態(tài)調(diào)配[J];建設(shè)科技;2011年23期

4 任永超;謝中華;;淺談堆石壩施工[J];內(nèi)蒙古水利;2012年03期

5 鐘登華;常昊天;劉寧;張平;;高堆石壩施工過程的仿真與優(yōu)化[J];水利學(xué)報(bào);2013年07期

6 涂揚(yáng)舉;馬光文;陶春華;過夏明;唐明;;基于加速遺傳算法的堆石壩施工優(yōu)化[J];水力發(fā)電;2007年01期

7 姜允松;高堆石壩施工質(zhì)量統(tǒng)計(jì)管理方法研究[J];云南水力發(fā)電;1997年03期

8 楊迪生;;堆石壩施工技術(shù)問題分析[J];中國(guó)水運(yùn)(下半月);2009年03期

9 壽文榮;;堆石壩施工中振動(dòng)壓路機(jī)鋼輪損壞原因分析[J];工程機(jī)械;2009年05期

10 劉瀲;胡志根;;時(shí)變條件下高堆石壩施工度汛協(xié)商決策的演化分析模型[J];水利學(xué)報(bào);2013年11期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 劉珊珊;堆石壩施工實(shí)時(shí)動(dòng)態(tài)仿真系統(tǒng)研究與開發(fā)[D];武漢大學(xué);2005年

2 李正;基于Pareto解的堆石壩施工工期-質(zhì)量-成本均衡優(yōu)化研究[D];天津大學(xué);2016年

，

本文編號(hào)：2156748