本文選題：灰水足跡 + 京津冀IPAT模型�。� 參考：《水利水電技術(shù)》2017年11期

【摘要】：河北作為京津冀發(fā)展圈的重要組成部分,水質(zhì)水量問(wèn)題突出,因此迫切需要對(duì)其水量和水質(zhì)進(jìn)行研究�；谵r(nóng)業(yè)和工業(yè)生活兩部分,選取N肥、P肥、COD為關(guān)鍵污染物,以水環(huán)境最大允許容量為依據(jù),計(jì)算了河北省2004—2015年的灰水足跡,并以此為基礎(chǔ),對(duì)2030年單位產(chǎn)值造成的灰水足跡進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。結(jié)果表明:(1)12年間河北省灰水足跡呈現(xiàn)先上升再下降的趨勢(shì),農(nóng)業(yè)灰水足跡以N肥為最關(guān)鍵污染物,隨著化肥總量和平均施肥水平的增加不斷增長(zhǎng),年均增長(zhǎng)率0.87%;(2)工業(yè)生活灰水足跡總體呈現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),階段內(nèi)呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)。以2011年為界,河北省灰水足跡從由農(nóng)業(yè)灰水足跡決定轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橛晒I(yè)生活灰水足跡決定,且工業(yè)生活灰水足跡和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值的相關(guān)性較強(qiáng);(3)通過(guò)IPAT模型分析發(fā)現(xiàn),農(nóng)業(yè)灰水足跡除2004,2013,2015年外,其他各年份可持續(xù)性均較差,2004—2010年工業(yè)生活灰水足跡的可持續(xù)性好于2011—2015年。未來(lái)若按照現(xiàn)有水平繼續(xù)發(fā)展,到2030年河北省單位農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)值造成的灰水足跡將下降為0.05 m~3/元,單位工業(yè)生活產(chǎn)值造成的灰水足跡將下降為0.006 m~3/元。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei development circle, the problem of water quality and quantity is prominent, so it is urgent to study the quantity and quality of Hebei. Based on two parts of agricultural and industrial life, this paper selected N fertilizer, P fertilizer and COD as the key pollutant and calculated the ash water footprint of Hebei Province from 2004 to 2015 on the basis of the maximum allowable capacity of water environment. The grey water footprint caused by the unit output value in 2030 is forecasted. The results showed that: (1) during the past 12 years, the ash water footprint of Hebei Province increased first and then decreased, and N fertilizer was the most important pollutant in agriculture, and with the increase of the total amount of fertilizer and the average level of fertilizer, the total amount of fertilizer and the average fertilizer level increased continuously. The average annual growth rate was 0.87. (2) the industrial life ash water footprint showed an increasing trend in general and a downward trend in the period. In 2011, the ash water footprint of Hebei Province changed from the agricultural ash water footprint to the industrial life ash water footprint, and the correlation between the industrial ash water footprint and the tertiary industry output value was strong. (3) through the analysis of IPAT model, it was found that, With the exception of 2004 / 2013 and 2015, the sustainability of agricultural ash water footprint in other years is worse than that in industrial life in 2004-2010 is better than that in 2011-2015. In the future, if we continue to develop according to the present level, by 2030, the ash water footprint caused by the unit agricultural output value of Hebei Province will be reduced to 0.05mt / Yuan, and the ash water footprint caused by the unit industrial life output value will be reduced to 0.006 mm3 / yuan.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)水利水電科學(xué)研究院;安陽(yáng)市河道管理處;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(41401648,71573274) 國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃課題(2016YFC0401408,2016YFC0503502)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TV213.4

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本文編號(hào)：2059815