水電廠電力設備事故應急響應FPN-MC模型及效能分析
發(fā)布時間:2018-06-23 23:53
本文選題:水電廠電力設備 + 應急響應。 參考:《中國安全生產(chǎn)科學技術》2017年04期
【摘要】:為更好地利用信息技術研究水電廠電力設備事故應急效能,提高應急救援效率和應急處置能力,綜合考慮應急響應過程中各個環(huán)節(jié)時間的隨機性與模糊性,運用模糊Petri網(wǎng)(FPN)和馬爾科夫鏈(MC)理論,構建水電廠電力設備事故應急響應FPN-MC模型,求解模糊穩(wěn)態(tài)概率值并分析系統(tǒng)效能指標。最后,以ZLB水電廠電力設備事故Ⅲ級應急響應作為實例,進一步剖析應急流程信息擁擠的瓶頸環(huán)節(jié)及事件應急處置的關鍵節(jié)點。結果表明:應急資源使用完畢、相關人員現(xiàn)場處置到位、確定完善的處置方案時的狀態(tài)最為繁忙;利用資源實施救援、相關人員進行現(xiàn)場處置、完善處置方案等實施過程需要重點監(jiān)督和管理。
[Abstract]:In order to make better use of information technology to study the emergency efficiency of power equipment accidents in hydropower plants, and to improve the efficiency of emergency rescue and emergency handling, the randomness and fuzziness of each link in the process of emergency response are considered synthetically. Based on the theory of fuzzy Petri net (FPN) and Markov chain (MC), the FPN-MC model of emergency response to power equipment accident in hydropower plant is constructed. The fuzzy steady-state probability value is solved and the system effectiveness index is analyzed. Finally, taking the level 鈪,
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