本文選題：氣候變化 + 水資源系統(tǒng)�。� 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：自工業(yè)革命以來，大氣中的二氧化碳含量不斷增加，改變了氣候系統(tǒng)原有的能量平衡，致使全球氣候發(fā)生改變。水循環(huán)系統(tǒng)作為氣候系統(tǒng)的一個重要組成部分，在全球氣候系統(tǒng)發(fā)生變化的同時，水循環(huán)系統(tǒng)也必將受到影響，最終導致全球水資源的時空分配發(fā)生變化。目前，氣候變化對水資源的影響受到了國際上的廣泛關(guān)注，已開展了大量研究。 現(xiàn)有的研究多利用大氣環(huán)流模式（GCM）獲得未來氣象要素數(shù)據(jù)，直接輸入到相應(yīng)的水文模型或者水資源模型中來評價氣候變化對水資源系統(tǒng)的影響，但此類方法在減少GCM不確定性及解決GCM數(shù)據(jù)有限性問題方面存在缺陷。針對目前研究方法體系的不足，本研究提出一種新的評價方法——反向法，該方法不僅能夠充分利用多種GCM來減少單一GCM所帶來的不確定性問題，而且能夠有效結(jié)合GCM數(shù)據(jù)準確和隨機模型產(chǎn)生數(shù)據(jù)量大的優(yōu)勢，并可同時量化氣候要素和水文要素的統(tǒng)計要素對水資源系統(tǒng)的影響。本研究將該方法應(yīng)用于美國麻州水資源系統(tǒng)（MWRA）和我國云南省騎馬嶺水庫，取得了較為滿意的結(jié)果。主要研究內(nèi)容和結(jié)論如下： （1）通過對MWRA水資源系統(tǒng)進行深入分析，構(gòu)建了MWRA水資源模型，同時利用基準期的觀測數(shù)據(jù)對模型的模擬能力進行了檢驗。 （2）根據(jù)水資源數(shù)據(jù)的特點，構(gòu)建了逐一標準化時間序列模型（ARMA），利用MWRA水資源系統(tǒng)中1950~1999年Quabbin水庫的流域凈流量（地表徑流-水庫實際蒸散量），對ARMA模型和周期時間序列模型（PARMA）的參數(shù)進行估計，通過對比證明ARMA模型的模擬能力整體上優(yōu)于PARMA模型。 （3）為了進行全面研究，分別選取IPCC提供的高、中、低三種溫室氣體排放情景即A2情景、A1B情景和B1情景，共112種GCM對MWRA水資源系統(tǒng)所在區(qū)域的降水量和氣溫進行預(yù)測，多數(shù)GCM結(jié)果顯示該區(qū)域在2050s時段(2036~2065年)和2080s時段(2066~2095年)的降水量和氣溫較基準期(1950~1999年)有所增加。 （4）利用MWRA水資源系統(tǒng)在基準期的觀測值對水文模型ABCD的參數(shù)進行了校驗，利用GCM獲得的氣象要素驅(qū)動ABCD水文模型來對MWRA水資源系統(tǒng)所在區(qū)域未來水文變化進行模擬預(yù)測，結(jié)果顯示月流域凈流量均值與基準年觀測值的差值在不同月份存在差異，年流域凈流量的均值與基準年觀測值的差值則無顯著變化。 （5）選用可靠度作為MWRA水資源系統(tǒng)的評級指數(shù)，采用反向法對MWRA水資源系統(tǒng)在未來兩個時段由氣候變化引起的風險進行評價，最終結(jié)果顯示：當流域凈流量年際標準方差為基準期觀測值的100%、110%、120%、130%和140%的情況下，未來兩個時段MWRA水資源系統(tǒng)在A2情景、A1B情景和B1情景下均呈現(xiàn)為高風險值。麻州水資源委員會應(yīng)根據(jù)情況對MWRA水資源系統(tǒng)進行必要的調(diào)整以應(yīng)對未來氣候變化可能帶來的負面影響。 （6）為探究反向法的適用性，將反向法應(yīng)用于我國云南省境內(nèi)的騎馬嶺水庫，，通過已建立的氣候響應(yīng)方程和可靠度指數(shù)的閾值，對關(guān)鍵因子的閾值進行了識別：在基準期（1960~2004年）觀測值年際標準方差100%、110%、120%、130%和140%的情況下，流域凈流量年均值的閾值分別為基準期觀測值的92.8%、94.3%、95.9%、97.4%和99.0%，閾值的識別為該地區(qū)制定政策減弱氣候變化對水庫影響提供了理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Since the industrial revolution, the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been increasing, changing the original energy balance of the climate system and changing the global climate. As an important part of the climate system, the water cycle system will also be affected and eventually lead to the global climate system. The spatial and temporal distribution of water resources has changed. At present, the impact of climate change on water resources has attracted extensive international attention, and a great deal of research has been carried out.
The current research uses the atmospheric circulation model (GCM) to obtain the future meteorological elements data, directly input into the corresponding hydrological model or water resource model to evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources, but this method has defects in reducing the uncertainty of GCM and solving the limited problem of GCM data. A new evaluation method, reverse method, is proposed in this study. This method can not only fully utilize a variety of GCM to reduce the uncertainty caused by a single GCM, but also effectively combine the advantages of the accurate and random model of GCM data to produce a large amount of data, and can simultaneously quantify the combination of climatic elements and hydrological factors. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: the application of this method to the Massachusetts water resource system (MWRA) and the Yunnan jequing reservoir in our country.
(1) through the in-depth analysis of the MWRA water resources system, the MWRA water resource model is constructed. At the same time, the simulation ability of the model is tested by the observation data of the datum period.
(2) according to the characteristics of water resources data, a one by one standardized time series model (ARMA) is constructed, and the parameters of the ARMA model and the periodic time series model (PARMA) are estimated by using the net flow of the Quabbin reservoir in the Quabbin reservoir of 1950~1999 in the water resource system, and the parameters of the ARMA model and the periodic time series model (PARMA) are estimated, and the simulation of the ARMA model is proved by comparison. The capability is better than the PARMA model as a whole.
(3) in order to carry out a comprehensive study, three scenarios of high, medium and low greenhouse gas emissions provided by IPCC, namely, A2 scenarios, A1B scenarios and B1 scenarios, were selected for the prediction of precipitation and temperature in the region of the MWRA water resource system. Most of the GCM results showed that the region was reduced in 2050s time period (2036~2065 year) and 2080s period (2066~2095 year). Water and air temperature increased over the base period (1950~1999).
(4) the parameters of the hydrological model ABCD are checked by the observation value of the MWRA water resource system at the datum period. The hydrological model of the meteorological element driven by the GCM is used to simulate the hydrological changes in the region of the MWRA water resource system in the future. The results show that the difference between the mean of the monthly net flow rate of the monthly basin and the observation value of the datum year is different. There was a discrepancy in the month, and there was no significant change in the mean value of the annual net flow of the river basin and the observed value of the base year.
(5) using the reliability index as the rating index of MWRA water resources system, the risk of MWRA water resource system caused by climate change in the next two periods is evaluated by the reverse method. The final result shows that when the annual standard variance of the net flow of the basin is 100%, 110%, 120%, 130% and 140%, the next two time periods are M The WRA water resource system presents a high risk value in A2 scenarios, A1B scenarios and B1 scenarios. The Massachusetts Water Resources Commission should make the necessary adjustments to the MWRA water resource system in response to the possible negative impacts of future climate change.
(6) in order to explore the applicability of the reverse method, the reverse method was applied to the chequan reservoir in Yunnan province of China. The threshold of the key factors was identified through the established climatic response equation and the threshold of the reliability index. In the case of the standard variance of 100%, 110%, 120%, 130% and 140% of the annual observational values of the datum period (1960~2004) The annual mean value of net flow is 92.8%, 94.3%, 95.9%, 97.4% and 99%, respectively. The recognition of the threshold provides a theoretical basis for the policy to reduce the impact of climate change on the reservoir.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV213.4

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