本文選題：水資源 + 合理配置��； 參考：《西安理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：水資源匱乏已是21世紀(jì)全球人類面臨的重大難題,隨著十一五規(guī)劃實(shí)施以來(lái),我國(guó)西北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)得到迅猛發(fā)展,大大增加我國(guó)西北地區(qū)對(duì)水資源的需求量,但是西北地區(qū)水資源總量短缺、生態(tài)環(huán)境脆弱,加上經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展底子薄,導(dǎo)致區(qū)域供水結(jié)構(gòu)不合理、水資源有效利用率低,水資源匱乏已經(jīng)變成限制我國(guó)西北地區(qū)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵因素。對(duì)有限的水資源進(jìn)行合理配置,促進(jìn)西北地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)環(huán)境的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展,這是現(xiàn)階段西北地區(qū)水利工作的主要任務(wù)之一。然而,水資源系統(tǒng)中普遍存在著不確定性,且隨著地區(qū)人口、社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)的擴(kuò)張,不確定性越來(lái)越呈現(xiàn)出物理、事理和人理相互交叉的特征,造成水資源系統(tǒng)本身及其環(huán)境的不確定性加劇。傳統(tǒng)配置方法往往對(duì)水資源系統(tǒng)中的不確定性進(jìn)行經(jīng)驗(yàn)估計(jì)或者忽略,沒(méi)有對(duì)不確定性的深入研究,因而對(duì)不確定問(wèn)題的研究尚且不夠。本次研究基于禮泉縣規(guī)劃年2030年供需平衡分析,將基于供需平衡配置模型、多水源多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化配置模型和考慮系統(tǒng)不確定性的區(qū)間兩階段隨機(jī)模型運(yùn)用于禮泉縣水資源合理配置中,具體研究?jī)?nèi)容如下:(1)在充分了解禮泉縣自然地理概況、水資源概況、經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展概況的基礎(chǔ)上,利用定額法和趨勢(shì)法對(duì)規(guī)劃年禮泉縣需水量和可供水量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并進(jìn)行三次供需平衡分析。(2)以三次供需平衡結(jié)果為基礎(chǔ),建立基于供需平衡的禮泉縣水資源合理配置模型;同時(shí)考慮到外調(diào)水的爭(zhēng)議及分配過(guò)程中的水質(zhì)問(wèn)題,以禮泉縣經(jīng)濟(jì)效益值最大和總?cè)彼孔钚槟繕?biāo)函數(shù),建立75%來(lái)水水平下禮泉縣多水源多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化配置模型。(3)進(jìn)一步考慮水資源系統(tǒng)中普遍存在的不確定性問(wèn)題,采用概率數(shù)學(xué)和區(qū)間數(shù)學(xué)來(lái)表達(dá)供需水系統(tǒng)存在的不確定性,同時(shí)吸收兩階段規(guī)劃的思想,建立區(qū)間兩階段隨機(jī)規(guī)劃模型。研究結(jié)果表明,基于不確定理論的區(qū)間兩階段隨機(jī)規(guī)劃模型能有效解決禮泉縣水資源配置系統(tǒng)中存在的不確定性,與確定性模型相比,區(qū)間兩階段隨機(jī)規(guī)劃模型能夠支持決策者在最優(yōu)解區(qū)間內(nèi)做出多種決策方案,同時(shí)通過(guò)兩階段的的懲罰思想有效減少水資源的浪費(fèi)。
[Abstract]:The scarcity of water resources has become a major problem for human beings in the 21st century. With the implementation of the 11th Five-Year Plan, the economic and social development of the Northwest region of China has developed rapidly, which has greatly increased the demand for water resources in the Northwest region of China. However, the shortage of water resources in Northwest China, the fragile ecological environment and the weak foundation for economic development have led to unreasonable regional water supply structures and low effective utilization of water resources. Water scarcity has become a key factor limiting the development of northwest China. The rational allocation of limited water resources and the coordinated development of the economic and social environment in Northwest China are one of the main tasks of water conservancy work in Northwest China at this stage. However, uncertainty exists generally in water resources system, and with the expansion of population, society and economy, uncertainty becomes more and more physical, rational and human. The uncertainty of water resources system itself and its environment is increased. The traditional allocation methods often estimate or ignore the uncertainty in water resources system, and there is no in-depth study on the uncertainty, so the study of uncertainty is not enough. This study is based on the analysis of supply and demand balance in Liquan county planning year 2030, and will be based on the supply and demand balance allocation model. The multi-source multi-objective optimal allocation model and the interval two-stage stochastic model considering the uncertainty of the system are applied to the rational allocation of water resources in Liquan County. The specific research contents are as follows: 1) in order to fully understand the natural geography and water resources profile of Liquan County, On the basis of the general situation of economic and social development, this paper uses quota method and trend method to forecast the water demand and available water supply in Liquan County in the planning year, and analyzes the balance of supply and demand for three times. (2) based on the results of three times of supply and demand balance, A reasonable allocation model of water resources in Liquan County is established based on the balance of supply and demand, and the objective function is to take the maximum economic benefit and the minimum total water shortage of Liquan County as the objective function, considering the dispute of water transfer and the water quality in the process of water distribution. In this paper, a multi-objective optimal allocation model of multi-water resources in Liquan County is established at 75% water supply level. The uncertainty of water supply and demand system is expressed by probability mathematics and interval mathematics, considering the general uncertainty in water resources system, and the probability mathematics and interval mathematics are used to express the uncertainty of water supply and demand system. At the same time, an interval two-stage stochastic programming model is established by absorbing the idea of two-stage programming. The results show that the interval two-stage stochastic programming model based on uncertainty theory can effectively solve the uncertainty in Liquan County water resources allocation system, compared with the deterministic model. The interval two-stage stochastic programming model can support the decision makers to make a variety of decision schemes in the interval of the optimal solution, and reduce the waste of water resources effectively through the two-stage punishment idea.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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