本文選題：枯水 + 內(nèi)河航運(yùn)��； 參考：《水力發(fā)電學(xué)報(bào)》2016年07期

【摘要】：近些年劇烈的氣候變化和高強(qiáng)度的人類活動(dòng),使得基于一致性的傳統(tǒng)最低通航水位設(shè)計(jì)方法不再滿足航運(yùn)設(shè)計(jì)需求。本文選取廣東省東江、西江、北江、韓江四個(gè)主要河流為研究對(duì)象,采用水文變異診斷系統(tǒng)對(duì)其年平均水位序列進(jìn)行診斷分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)四大河流的控制出口站年平均水位序列均發(fā)生了中變異或強(qiáng)變異。針對(duì)變化環(huán)境下的水位資料,用綜合歷時(shí)曲線法對(duì)變異前后和整體的日水位序列進(jìn)行分段計(jì)算,比較各站整體與變異后段序列設(shè)計(jì)水位值,結(jié)果顯示潮安站偏大超過(guò)30%,其他站偏小超過(guò)30%;對(duì)保證率頻率法中的年通航特征水位序列進(jìn)行變異診斷,發(fā)現(xiàn)其也發(fā)生了不同形式和不同程度的變異,從而揭示了這兩種傳統(tǒng)計(jì)算方法在"非一致性"水位序列下存在的問(wèn)題。
[Abstract]:In recent years, severe climate change and high intensity of human activities make the traditional design method of minimum navigable water level based on consistency no longer meet the requirements of shipping design. In this paper, four main rivers, Dongjiang, Xijiang, Beijiang and Hanjiang in Guangdong Province, are selected as research objects. The annual mean water level series is diagnosed and analyzed by hydrological variation diagnosis system. It is found that the annual mean water level series of the four major rivers have either moderate or strong variations. According to the water level data in the changing environment, the daily water level series before and after the variation are calculated by the method of comprehensive diachronic curve, and the design water level values of the whole station and the sequence after the variation are compared. The results show that the Chaoan station is larger than 30 percent, and the other stations are smaller than 30 percent. The variation of the annual navigable characteristic water level sequence in the method of guarantee rate frequency is diagnosed, and it is found that there are also variations in different forms and degrees. Thus, the problems of these two traditional methods in the "inconsistent" water level series are revealed.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學(xué)水資源與水電工程科學(xué)國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;國(guó)家領(lǐng)土主權(quán)與海洋權(quán)益協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;水資源安全保障湖北省協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)環(huán)境科學(xué)與工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(91547205;51579181;51179131;51190094) 廣東省水利科技創(chuàng)新項(xiàng)目成果(2011-01)
【分類號(hào)】：U612.23

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