基于概率加權(quán)FDC法的河流生態(tài)需水量計(jì)算
本文選題:河道生態(tài)需水 + 年內(nèi)年際變化; 參考:《水文》2017年04期
【摘要】:基于河流流量過程的年內(nèi)和年際變化特性,提出了一種計(jì)算河道內(nèi)生態(tài)需水量的概率加權(quán)FDC(流量歷時(shí)曲線)方法。該方法基于年均流量系列和逐月月均流量系列的特定頻率,將年均流量系列和逐月月均流量系列劃分為豐、平、枯組,通過建立年月豐枯遭遇的Copula聯(lián)合分布函數(shù),求得不同典型年下各月豐平枯的條件概率,將其作為概率權(quán)重,得到不同典型年生態(tài)需水過程的計(jì)算公式,改進(jìn)了FDC法,計(jì)算出了豐、平、枯典型年的年內(nèi)生態(tài)需水過程。以屏山站為例,將計(jì)算結(jié)果與Tennant法、逐月最小生態(tài)徑流法、年內(nèi)展布法和改進(jìn)FDC法進(jìn)行了對(duì)比分析。計(jì)算結(jié)果表明:由此方法得到的生態(tài)流量在Tennant法評(píng)價(jià)體系中,能很好的滿足河道的生態(tài)需水要求,且較好地體現(xiàn)了河流徑流的年內(nèi)及年際變化過程,符合實(shí)際情況。
[Abstract]:Based on the characteristics of annual and interannual variation of river discharge process, a probabilistic weighted FDC (discharge duration Curve) method is proposed to calculate the ecological water demand in river. Based on the specific frequency of the annual flow series and the monthly average flow series, this method divides the average annual flow series and the monthly average flow series into abundant, flat and dry groups, and establishes the Copula joint distribution function of the annual average flow series and the monthly average flow series. The conditional probability of each month in different typical years is obtained, which is regarded as the probability weight, and the calculation formula of ecological water demand process in different typical years is obtained. The FDC method is improved to calculate the annual ecological water demand process in typical years of abundant, flat and dry years. Taking Pingshan station as an example, the calculation results are compared with the Tennant method, the monthly minimum ecological runoff method, the annual distribution method and the improved FDC method. The calculation results show that the ecological discharge obtained by this method can meet the requirements of ecological water demand in the evaluation system of Tennant method, and better reflect the annual and annual variation process of river runoff, which is in line with the actual situation.
【作者單位】: 武漢大學(xué)水資源與水電工程科學(xué)國家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;水資源安全保障湖北省協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心;
【基金】:國家自然科學(xué)基金面上項(xiàng)目(51479140);國家自然科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目(51239004)
【分類號(hào)】:P333;X143
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