本文選題：導流工程　切入點：多目標決策　出處：《西南石油大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：施工導流貫穿水電站建設全過程,涉及到電站整體的規(guī)劃、投資、進度、后期效益的實現(xiàn)等,其地位可謂是重中之重。因而在選擇導流工程方案時,使其達到安全可靠、工期短、投資省、效益高顯得尤為重要�；诖�,論文對施工導流方案的多目標比選決策進行了研究,提出了基于網(wǎng)絡層次分析(ANP)的比選決策模型。 本文首先從導流工程風險主要來源,自然因素、施工風險因素進行了分析總結(jié),對全年導流圍堰的堰前水位超過圍堰設計擋水位的風險率進行了計算,采用決策樹法對自然因素和施工因素風險加權求和,得到全年導流方案和枯期導流方案的綜合風險。 其次,在工程安全、質(zhì)量、環(huán)保水保達到相應國家標準的前提下,分析了導流工程多目標比選決策通常采用的四個元素：工期、費用、施工難易度以及風險率,并結(jié)合工程實踐增加了“工程效益”元素,對增加“工程效益”元素后構成的五個元素的相關性進行了進一步的分析論證。 通過對層次分析法(AHP)、網(wǎng)絡層次分析法(ANP)、理想點法(TOPSIS)、主成分分析法(PCA)和因子分析法(FAM)的原理、適用范圍分析,基于導流工程方案決策元素的分析,針對元素之間的相關性以及定量指標不易量化的特點,采用網(wǎng)絡層次分析法(ANP)建立多目標決策模型。模型求解過程中選擇定性與定量相結(jié)合的方式,運用三標度法構造判斷矩陣,并通過最優(yōu)傳遞矩陣計算方式替代一致性檢驗,減少了工作量。 最后,將以上研究成果應用于作者工程實踐的李家灣水電工程導流方案的比選中,建立李家灣水電工程導流方案ANP決策模型,得到方案的比選決策結(jié)果。此結(jié)果與各參建單位推薦的最終方案一致,說明運用ANP決策模型對導流方案進行比選,貼合實際,具有簡潔性、可操作性和使用性。
[Abstract]:Construction diversion runs through the whole process of hydropower station construction, which involves the whole planning, investment, progress and realization of later benefit of the hydropower station, and its status is the most important one. Therefore, when selecting diversion project, the project is safe and reliable. Because of the short construction period, low investment and high efficiency, this paper studies the multi-objective selection decision of construction diversion scheme, and puts forward a decision-making model based on network hierarchy analysis (NAHP). In this paper, the main risk sources, natural factors and construction risk factors of diversion engineering are analyzed and summarized, and the risk rate of water level in front of diversion cofferdam exceeding the designed water level of cofferdam is calculated. The decision tree method is used to sum up the risks of natural factors and construction factors, and the comprehensive risk of annual diversion scheme and dry period diversion scheme is obtained. Secondly, on the premise that the project safety, quality and environmental protection reach the corresponding national standard, the paper analyzes the four elements commonly used in the multi-objective selection decision of diversion engineering: time limit, cost, construction difficulty and risk rate. Combined with engineering practice, the element of "engineering benefit" is added, and the correlation of five elements after adding "engineering benefit" element is further analyzed and demonstrated. Based on the analysis of the principle and scope of application of Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Network Analytic hierarchy process (NPP), ideal Point method (TopSISN), Principal component Analysis (PCA) and Factor Analysis (FAM), based on the analysis of decision elements of diversion project, In view of the correlation between elements and the difficulty of quantifying quantitative indexes, a multi-objective decision-making model is established by using the network analytic hierarchy process (ANPs). In the process of solving the model, a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods is chosen. The three-scale method is used to construct the judgment matrix, and the consistency test is replaced by the optimal transfer matrix calculation method, which reduces the workload. Finally, the above research results are applied to the comparison and selection of the diversion scheme of Lijiawan hydropower project in the author's engineering practice, and the ANP decision-making model of the diversion scheme for the Lijiawan hydropower project is established. The result is consistent with the final scheme recommended by the participating units. It shows that the application of ANP decision model to the comparison and selection of diversion schemes is practical, concise, operable and practical.
【學位授予單位】：西南石油大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV551.1

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前10條

1 王育禮;王p，

本文編號：1647128