本文選題：水量分配　切入點：后評價　出處：《武漢大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：水量分配方案后評價對總結方案經(jīng)驗教訓,促進方案的實施和修正改進具有十分重要的意義。由于目前國內針對水量分配方案的評價多集中在方案的實施效果上,缺乏對方案本身及其實施過程的評價,且評價方法繁瑣,主觀性較強,為此本文針對水量分配方案后評價作了如下研究:(1)評述論文的研究背景和研究意義,查閱文獻總結水量分配方案后評價指標體系及評價方法的研究現(xiàn)狀,得出本文的研究內容和技術路線。(2)對評價對象水量分配方案進行研究,在分析評述水量分配概念、目標、基本原則及分配要素的基礎上,總結水量分配方案制定及其實施的具體過程。在此基礎上,分析水量分配方案后評價的概念、目標與原則,并對后評價一般方法如對比分析法、邏輯框架法、層次分析法、模糊綜合評價法等進行分析與總結。(3)在分析水量分配方案后評價特點的基礎上,分析得出其指標體系確定的原則;然后通過對建設項目后評價指標體系與立法后評價指標體系的建立思路進行總結借鑒,從而得出水量分配方案后評價指標體系的層次和內容。采用Cronbach的一致性系數(shù)Alpha系數(shù)對指標體系進行信度分析,采用效度系數(shù)法對指標體系進行效度檢驗。最后,在對現(xiàn)有常用權重確定方法進行分析研究的基礎上,采用ANP和熵值法結合的方法確定指標體系的權重。(4)在總結非負矩陣分解基本原理和基本特征的基礎上,建立了基于非負矩陣分解原理的后評價模型,該方法利用非負矩陣分解算法將指標矩陣最大程度分解為基向量和權向量,根據(jù)權向量元素數(shù)值大小評價綜合等級,根據(jù)基向量元素數(shù)值判斷評價指標的實施狀況。然后將熵權-ANP法與基于非負矩陣分解原理的后評價模型結合用于水量分配方案后評價。(5)運用本文建立的水量分配方案后評價指標體系與方法模型,對引灤水量分配方案進行后評價,后評價結果顯示方案的綜合評價等級為良,單項指標中來水可持續(xù)性、用水可持續(xù)性、與三條紅線銜接性等指標評價結果較差,來水情景合理性、調度方案合理性、政策制度可持續(xù)性等指標評價結果則較好(6)對全文內容進行總結,對引灤水量分配方案的修正提出建議,并指出文章有待進一步解決的問題及下一步研究的方向。
[Abstract]:The post-evaluation of water allocation scheme is of great significance for summing up the experience and lessons of the scheme, promoting the implementation of the scheme and improving it. There is a lack of evaluation of the scheme itself and its implementation process, and the evaluation method is cumbersome and subjective. Therefore, this paper makes the following research on the post-evaluation of the water allocation scheme: 1) the research background and significance of the paper are reviewed. The current situation of the evaluation index system and evaluation method after water allocation scheme is summarized in the literature, and the research content and technical route of this paper are obtained. The water allocation scheme of the evaluation object is studied, and the concept and objective of water distribution are analyzed and commented. On the basis of basic principles and distribution elements, this paper summarizes the formulation of water allocation scheme and the concrete process of its implementation. On this basis, the concept, objectives and principles of post-evaluation of water distribution scheme are analyzed, and the general methods of post-evaluation, such as comparative analysis, are analyzed. Logical frame method, Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method, etc.) on the basis of analyzing the characteristics of post-evaluation of water allocation scheme, the principle of determining its index system is obtained. Then through the construction project post-evaluation index system and the legislation post-evaluation index system establishment train of thought to carry on the summary reference, The reliability of the index system is analyzed by the consistency coefficient Alpha coefficient of Cronbach, the validity coefficient method is used to test the validity of the index system. On the basis of analyzing and studying the existing methods of weight determination, the method of combining ANP and entropy method is used to determine the weight of index system. (4) on the basis of summing up the basic principle and characteristics of nonnegative matrix factorization, A post-evaluation model based on the principle of non-negative matrix decomposition is established. By using the non-negative matrix decomposition algorithm, the index matrix is decomposed to the maximum extent into the basis vector and the weight vector, and the comprehensive grade is evaluated according to the numerical value of the weight vector element. Then the entropy weight ANP method and the post-evaluation model based on the non-negative matrix factorization principle are combined to evaluate the water distribution scheme. 5) the water allocation established in this paper is used. The index system and method model of post-evaluation, The post-evaluation of Luan River water diversion allocation scheme shows that the comprehensive evaluation grade of the scheme is good, the sustainability of incoming water in single index, the sustainability of water use, and the link with three red lines are poor. The evaluation results of the indicators such as the rationality of the incoming water situation, the rationality of the dispatching scheme and the sustainability of the policy and system are better. (6) summing up the contents of the full text, and putting forward some suggestions for the revision of the water diversion scheme of Luan River. The paper also points out the problems to be solved and the direction of further research.
【學位授予單位】：武漢大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV213.4

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