本文選題：海底管道　切入點(diǎn)：泄漏事故　出處：《西安建筑科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：海底管道是海上油氣輸出的“生命線”。相對(duì)于陸上油氣管道,海底管道面臨著更為復(fù)雜的海洋環(huán)境,一旦發(fā)生泄漏或者破裂,則難以修復(fù),或者修復(fù)的成本很高。當(dāng)前對(duì)于泄漏等事故特別是賠償,難以界定,因此當(dāng)海底管道管道發(fā)生泄漏時(shí),后評(píng)結(jié)果顯得極為重要,科學(xué)的后評(píng)結(jié)果可為事故發(fā)生及事故賠償建立合理的體系。論文主要研究了海底管道泄漏事故的原因,泄漏概率,泄漏量,泄漏發(fā)生后的應(yīng)急成本,社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)成本以及對(duì)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的影響,從而為海底管道風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)提供建議及對(duì)泄漏事故賠償做初步研究。首先,以先前學(xué)者的研究基礎(chǔ)為依托,結(jié)合歷史數(shù)據(jù)重點(diǎn)研究海底管道泄漏的原因,據(jù)此建立了海底管道泄漏Bow-tie(蝴蝶結(jié))模型。該模型由故障樹(shù)和事件樹(shù)組成,利用概率論的思想預(yù)測(cè)海底管道發(fā)生泄漏事故的概率、對(duì)環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)等的影響大小。其次,利用輸油管道溢油量估算模型(POSVEM)計(jì)算泄漏總量。再次,綜合分析海底管道泄漏后的應(yīng)急成本、社會(huì)-經(jīng)濟(jì)成本等,著重利用了HEA(資源等價(jià)法)分析石油泄漏總量對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境造成的損失。最后,文章以渤海某段管道泄漏為例進(jìn)行分析,以管道所處環(huán)境,分析管道發(fā)生泄漏的原因及概率,得到泄漏發(fā)生后在相同環(huán)境下的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)補(bǔ)償面積。論文通過(guò)對(duì)海底管道泄漏的預(yù)測(cè),泄漏量及泄漏后果的分析,為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防范、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理、后續(xù)賠償提供參考。鑒于國(guó)內(nèi)海底管道泄漏研究起步晚,未建立完善的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),造成本文多參考國(guó)外數(shù)據(jù),使得模型計(jì)算的結(jié)果并不能完全適用于國(guó)內(nèi)情況。
[Abstract]:Submarine pipeline is the "lifeline" of offshore oil and gas export. Compared with onshore oil and gas pipeline, submarine pipeline faces more complicated marine environment. Once leakage or rupture occurs, it is difficult to repair. Or the cost of repairing it is very high. At present, it is difficult to define the damage such as leakage, especially compensation, so when the submarine pipeline leak occurs, the post-evaluation result is extremely important. Scientific post-evaluation results can set up a reasonable system for accident occurrence and accident compensation. This paper mainly studies the causes, leakage probability, leakage quantity, emergency cost after leakage of submarine pipeline leakage. Social and economic costs and impacts on ecosystems, thus providing advice for risk assessment of submarine pipelines and preliminary research on compensation for leakage accidents. First, based on previous research by scholars, Based on the historical data, the Bow-tie (Bow-tie) model of submarine pipeline leakage is established. The model is composed of fault tree and event tree, and the probability of submarine pipeline leakage accident is predicted by probability theory. Secondly, the oil spill estimation model (POSVEM) is used to calculate the total amount of oil leakage. Thirdly, the emergency cost, socio-economic cost and so on after the submarine pipeline leak are comprehensively analyzed. In this paper, the ecological environment loss caused by total oil leakage is analyzed by means of Hea (Resource equivalence method). Finally, taking a pipeline leakage in Bohai Sea as an example, the reason and probability of pipeline leakage are analyzed by taking the environment where the pipeline is located. The compensation area of ecosystem after the leakage occurred in the same environment is obtained. Through the prediction of the submarine pipeline leakage, the leakage amount and the analysis of the leakage consequences, the risk prevention, risk management, In view of the late start of domestic submarine pipeline leakage research and the failure to establish a perfect database, this paper often refers to foreign data, so the results of the model calculation can not be fully applicable to the domestic situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TE973;TE88

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本文編號(hào)：1653012