發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-26 11:30

【摘要】：現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)是農(nóng)業(yè)的發(fā)展方向和趨勢(shì)。從現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)的定義和內(nèi)涵出發(fā),研究現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)評(píng)價(jià)方法,發(fā)現(xiàn)已有的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系存在主觀性和片面性的問(wèn)題。在總結(jié)相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上,使用脫鉤指數(shù)分析方法和控制方程(IPAT方程),將農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值作為驅(qū)動(dòng)力,選取16個(gè)與農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)直接相關(guān)的指標(biāo)作為分析因子,核算2000—2014年中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)總產(chǎn)值與這16個(gè)指標(biāo)的脫鉤指數(shù)。然后,分析這16個(gè)指標(biāo)與現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)的相關(guān)性,計(jì)算2000—2014年中國(guó)現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展水平的評(píng)價(jià)指數(shù)。這一時(shí)期,中國(guó)現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展水平在2009年達(dá)到階段峰值之后,2010——2014年現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)水平有所下降。中國(guó)現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)水平提高的主要推動(dòng)因素是農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)性固定資產(chǎn)和國(guó)家財(cái)政對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)支出的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),而造成2010年之后中國(guó)現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)水平下降的原因,是國(guó)家財(cái)政用于農(nóng)業(yè)支出增長(zhǎng)速度的大幅下降,以及農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)投入速度的下降。
[Abstract]:Modern agriculture is the development direction and trend of agriculture. Based on the definition and connotation of modern agriculture, this paper studies the evaluation methods of modern agriculture and finds that the existing evaluation index system is subjective and one-sidedness. On the basis of summarizing the related research, using decoupling index analysis method and control equation (IPAT equation), the total agricultural output value is taken as the driving force, and 16 indexes directly related to agricultural production are selected as analysis factors. Accounting for the decoupling index of China's total agricultural output value from these 16 indicators in 2000-2014. Then, the correlation between the 16 indexes and modern agriculture is analyzed, and the evaluation index of the development level of modern agriculture in China from 2000 to 2014 is calculated. During this period, the development level of modern agriculture in China declined from 2010 to 2014 after reaching its peak in 2009. The main driving factors for the improvement of China's modern agricultural level are the sustained growth of agricultural productive fixed assets and state finance expenditure on agriculture, and the reasons for the decline in China's modern agricultural level after 2010. Is the national financial expenditure on agriculture growth rate of decline, as well as the speed of agricultural technology investment.
【作者單位】： 中山大學(xué)廣東決策科學(xué)研究院;
【基金】：中國(guó)博士后科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(2016M600704)
【分類號(hào)】：F320.1

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