【摘要】：對(duì)于現(xiàn)代制造企業(yè)而言,工程變更是難以避免的,它廣泛存在于企業(yè)的各個(gè)部門(mén),涉及產(chǎn)品的整個(gè)生命周期,是企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)中一項(xiàng)非常重要的活動(dòng)。工程變更在給企業(yè)帶來(lái)一定效益的同時(shí)也可能會(huì)對(duì)企業(yè)造成一定的損失,如何準(zhǔn)確衡量變更的利弊大小,做出正確的變更決策,是工程變更管理中一項(xiàng)重要的研究?jī)?nèi)容。本文從變更影響評(píng)價(jià)的角度出發(fā),提出了一個(gè)相對(duì)完善的工程變更影響評(píng)價(jià)理論體系,它能夠定量地評(píng)價(jià)變更可能產(chǎn)生的效益和造成的損失以及變更存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),得出一個(gè)綜合的評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果,作為變更決策的參考依據(jù)。 論文首先對(duì)工程變更影響評(píng)價(jià)的基礎(chǔ)理論做了深入研究,總結(jié)了現(xiàn)有的綜合評(píng)價(jià)的方法及原則,確定了工程變更評(píng)價(jià)的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)。論文將層次分析法引入到變更評(píng)價(jià)當(dāng)中,通過(guò)該方法,可以把復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的決策思維層次化,把決策過(guò)程中定性和定量的因素有機(jī)地結(jié)合起來(lái),將人的主觀(guān)判斷用數(shù)量的形式表達(dá)出來(lái),使之條理化、科學(xué)化,從而避免由于人的主觀(guān)性導(dǎo)致權(quán)重預(yù)測(cè)與實(shí)際情況相矛盾的現(xiàn)象發(fā)生,提高了決策的有效性和準(zhǔn)確性。 其次,論文對(duì)制造企業(yè)的工程變更評(píng)價(jià)因素進(jìn)行了分析,提出從成本、效益和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)三個(gè)方面對(duì)變更進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),并以此為基礎(chǔ)提出了評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的建立方法。在成本評(píng)價(jià)方面,分析了變更過(guò)程中成本的構(gòu)成,并給出了詳細(xì)的計(jì)算公式；提出用相似成本法在產(chǎn)品歷史成本庫(kù)的基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合指數(shù)平滑法估算變更后產(chǎn)品成本的方法；提出了總成本的計(jì)算公式。在效益和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方面,提出了用層次分析法計(jì)算變更效益和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)權(quán)重,用專(zhuān)家評(píng)分法計(jì)算評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)值的方法。在此基礎(chǔ)上,論文提出了效益和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)值轉(zhuǎn)換成貨幣當(dāng)量的計(jì)算公式,將三種評(píng)價(jià)因素的評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果綜合成一個(gè)最終評(píng)價(jià)值,作為決策參考依據(jù)。 最后,論文在理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上設(shè)計(jì)了計(jì)算機(jī)輔助工程變更評(píng)價(jià)系統(tǒng),該系統(tǒng)可以幫助變更評(píng)價(jià)人員準(zhǔn)確高效地完成評(píng)價(jià)工作。論文分析了系統(tǒng)的功能需求和開(kāi)發(fā)環(huán)境,詳細(xì)介紹了系統(tǒng)的各個(gè)功能模塊及工作流程,設(shè)計(jì)出了系統(tǒng)的工作界面并實(shí)現(xiàn)了關(guān)鍵的計(jì)算功能模塊。
[Abstract]:As far as modern manufacturing enterprises are concerned, engineering change is unavoidable. It exists widely in every department of enterprise and involves the whole life cycle of products. It is a very important activity in the production and management of enterprises. Engineering change not only brings a certain benefit to the enterprise but also may cause some losses to the enterprise. How to accurately measure the advantages and disadvantages of the change and make the correct change decision is an important research content in the engineering change management. From the angle of change impact assessment, this paper puts forward a relatively perfect theoretical system of engineering change impact assessment, which can quantitatively evaluate the possible benefits and losses caused by the change as well as the risks existing in the change. A comprehensive evaluation result is obtained, which can be used as a reference for change decision-making. Firstly, the basic theory of engineering change impact assessment is deeply studied, the existing methods and principles of comprehensive evaluation are summarized, and the key technologies of engineering change evaluation are determined. In this paper, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced into the evaluation of changes. Through this method, the decision-making thinking of the complex system can be hierarchical and the qualitative and quantitative factors in the decision-making process can be combined organically. The subjective judgment of human being is expressed in the form of quantity, so as to make it organized and scientific, so as to avoid the contradiction between weight prediction and actual situation due to the subjectivity of human being, and improve the validity and accuracy of decision-making. Secondly, the evaluation factors of engineering change in manufacturing enterprises are analyzed, and the evaluation method of evaluation index system is put forward from three aspects: cost, benefit and risk. In the aspect of cost evaluation, the composition of cost in the process of change is analyzed, and the detailed calculation formula is given, and the method of estimating product cost after change by using similar cost method combined with exponential smoothing method on the basis of product historical cost base is put forward. A formula for calculating the total cost is presented. In the aspect of benefit and risk evaluation, the method of calculating the index weight of changing benefit and risk factor by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is put forward, and the evaluation index value is calculated by expert scoring method. On this basis, the paper puts forward the calculation formula of converting the evaluation value of benefit and risk into currency equivalent, and synthesizes the evaluation results of three kinds of evaluation factors into one final evaluation value, which serves as a reference basis for decision-making. Finally, a computer-aided engineering change evaluation system is designed on the basis of theoretical research. The system can help the change evaluators to complete the evaluation work accurately and efficiently. This paper analyzes the functional requirements and development environment of the system, introduces in detail the functional modules and workflow of the system, designs the working interface of the system and realizes the key computing functional modules.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TH186;F224;F406

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