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  本文選題：滾動軸承 + 三參數(shù)weibull分布��； 參考：《國防科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：滾動軸承是機(jī)械工業(yè)使用廣泛、要求嚴(yán)格的配套件和基礎(chǔ)件，被人們稱為機(jī)械的關(guān)節(jié)。作為裝備的關(guān)鍵部件，滾動軸承一旦失效將嚴(yán)重降低裝備的戰(zhàn)斗力，甚至造成災(zāi)難性事故。滾動軸承的壽命是其耐久性的重要統(tǒng)計(jì)指標(biāo)。有效地預(yù)測滾動軸承的壽命對于了解機(jī)械產(chǎn)品健康狀況并制定優(yōu)化的維修策略具有重要意義。本文圍繞滾動軸承的壽命預(yù)測問題，建立了基于加速壽命試驗(yàn)的預(yù)測方法，并進(jìn)行了工程應(yīng)用及實(shí)例驗(yàn)證，主要研究內(nèi)容如下： （1）在簡要?dú)w納滾動軸承工作原理和失效形式的基礎(chǔ)上，深入分析滾動軸承疲勞失效機(jī)理。與傳統(tǒng)研究中滾動軸承疲勞壽命服從Weibull分布假設(shè)不同，本文從失效分析和數(shù)據(jù)擬合的角度解釋為什么滾動軸承疲勞壽命服從三參數(shù)Weibull分布，為后續(xù)數(shù)據(jù)分析方法研究奠定基礎(chǔ)。 （2）對目前主要的三參數(shù)Weibull分布參數(shù)估計(jì)方法進(jìn)行了簡要介紹，并針對這些方法存在的不足提出了一種新的易于工程應(yīng)用的三參數(shù)Weibull分布參數(shù)估計(jì)方法，為后續(xù)競爭失效場合恒定應(yīng)力加速壽命試驗(yàn)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法研究奠定基礎(chǔ)。 （3）針對目前三參數(shù)Weibull分布在競爭失效場合研究中的問題，建立三參數(shù)Weibull分布及競爭失效場合恒定應(yīng)力加速壽命試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)分析方法，在參數(shù)估計(jì)過程中，通過引入基于EM算法的極大似然估計(jì)，解決了直接極大化似然估計(jì)對初始值比較敏感的缺點(diǎn)。仿真結(jié)果表明，即使在失效模式未確定比例為0.7的情況下，仍能得到很好的估計(jì)效果。 （4）在加速壽命試驗(yàn)相關(guān)實(shí)施標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的基礎(chǔ)上，制定了詳細(xì)的滾動軸承加速壽命試驗(yàn)方案，提出了通過應(yīng)用滾動軸承最大接觸應(yīng)力計(jì)算公式進(jìn)行外加負(fù)載上限計(jì)算的方法，并提出試驗(yàn)條件一致性檢驗(yàn)細(xì)則，確保滾動軸承失效機(jī)理相同，使得試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)之間具有可比性，為滾動軸承加速壽命試驗(yàn)的實(shí)施提供理論指導(dǎo)。 （5）以6205深溝球軸承為對象進(jìn)行了工程應(yīng)用及試驗(yàn)驗(yàn)證。依據(jù)滾動軸承加速壽命試驗(yàn)方案，對6205深溝球軸承加速壽命試驗(yàn)進(jìn)行了統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，得出該軸承的可靠性評估及壽命預(yù)測結(jié)果。結(jié)果表明，在三參數(shù)Weibull分布基礎(chǔ)上，同時考慮競爭失效的情況下，，可靠性評估及壽命預(yù)測結(jié)果更符合實(shí)際情況，所得結(jié)果更加準(zhǔn)確，從而驗(yàn)證了本文方法的可行性和有效性。 綜上所述，本文從理論分析與應(yīng)用驗(yàn)證相結(jié)合的角度研究了基于加速壽命試驗(yàn)的滾動軸承工作壽命預(yù)測方法。本文的研究成果對于滾動軸承的可靠性評估與壽命預(yù)測具有重要的推動作用，并對加速壽命試驗(yàn)技術(shù)在其它機(jī)械產(chǎn)品可靠性評估與壽命預(yù)測領(lǐng)域中的研究和應(yīng)用具有一定的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:Rolling bearings are widely used in mechanical industry and require strict fittings and basic parts. They are called mechanical joints. As the key component of the equipment, the rolling bearing failure will seriously reduce the combat effectiveness of the equipment, and even cause catastrophic accidents. The life of rolling bearing is an important statistic index of its durability. It is important to predict the life of rolling bearings effectively for understanding the health status of mechanical products and making optimal maintenance strategies. In this paper, the prediction method based on accelerated life test is established around the life prediction problem of rolling bearing, and the engineering application and example verification are carried out. The main research contents are as follows: On the basis of summarizing the working principle and failure form of rolling bearing, the fatigue failure mechanism of rolling bearing is analyzed. Different from the Weibull distribution assumption in traditional research, this paper explains why rolling bearing fatigue life suit is distributed from three parameters Weibull distribution from the point of view of failure analysis and data fitting, which lays a foundation for the study of subsequent data analysis methods. In this paper, the main three parameter Weibull distribution parameter estimation methods are briefly introduced, and a new three parameter Weibull distribution parameter estimation method which is easy to be used in engineering is put forward in view of the shortcomings of these methods. It lays a foundation for the statistical analysis of constant stress accelerated life test in subsequent competitive failure situations. 3) aiming at the problem of three-parameter Weibull distribution in the research of competitive failure situation, a method for analyzing the data of three-parameter Weibull distribution and constant stress accelerated life test in competitive failure situation is established. In the process of parameter estimation, By introducing maximum likelihood estimation based on EM algorithm, the shortcoming of direct maximization likelihood estimation is solved that is sensitive to initial value. The simulation results show that even if the failure mode has an uncertain ratio of 0.7, it can still get a good estimation effect. On the basis of the relevant implementation standards of accelerated life test, a detailed scheme of rolling bearing accelerated life test is formulated, and a method for calculating the upper limit of applied load by applying the formula of maximum contact stress of rolling bearing is put forward. The detailed rules of test conformance inspection are put forward to ensure that the failure mechanism of rolling bearing is the same, so that the test data are comparable, which provides theoretical guidance for the implementation of rolling bearing accelerated life test. Taking 6205 deep groove ball bearing as the object, the engineering application and test verification are carried out. According to the accelerated life test scheme of rolling bearing, the accelerated life test of 6205 deep groove ball bearing is statistically analyzed, and the reliability evaluation and life prediction result of the bearing are obtained. The results show that on the basis of three-parameter Weibull distribution and considering the failure of competition at the same time, the results of reliability evaluation and life prediction are more consistent with the actual situation, and the obtained results are more accurate, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. To sum up, this paper studies the working life prediction method of rolling bearing based on accelerated life test from the point of view of theoretical analysis and application verification. The research results in this paper play an important role in the reliability evaluation and life prediction of rolling bearings. It can be used for reference in the research and application of accelerated life test technology in the field of reliability evaluation and life prediction of other mechanical products.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：國防科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：TH133.33;TB114.3

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