巴彥淖爾城區(qū)公交出行調(diào)查及客流預測
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-18 17:30
【摘要】：城市公共交通系統(tǒng)是城市交通乃至整個城市系統(tǒng)中不可或缺的組成部分。隨著城市化進程加快，人口急劇增長，城市公共交通問題日益嚴峻。在此背景下，提高公交系統(tǒng)的運行效率，構(gòu)建一個可以和私家車形成有力競爭的公交網(wǎng)絡十分重要。為此，交通運輸部啟動了公交都市建設示范工程。而全面的公交出行調(diào)查和合理的公交客流分析與預測，可為科學的公交線路規(guī)劃提供重要依據(jù)。 本論文對巴彥淖爾市臨河區(qū)居民出行進行調(diào)查，并采用趨勢外推法、增長率法和指數(shù)平滑法組合預測法，對城市經(jīng)濟指標做了客觀合理的預測，結(jié)合公交運營現(xiàn)狀的調(diào)查以及土地利用、道路網(wǎng)等其他信息，建立公交基礎數(shù)據(jù)集，，利用傳統(tǒng)的四階段法對巴彥淖爾市臨河區(qū)的公交客流需求做出了合理的預測。首先分析城市人口現(xiàn)狀分布、規(guī)劃年各小區(qū)的人口，利用不同人口屬性、出行次數(shù)之間關系建立類型分析模型得到居民的出行總量，中遠期則結(jié)合城市人口、土地利用與交通需求的關系進行總量的預測；其次采用精度較高的雙約束重力模型進行交通分布預測，得到全方式OD矩陣；然后運用非集計理論對影響居民出行選擇的出行屬性、個人屬性和家庭屬性加以分析并建立模型，其中隨機采用5000個出行者的數(shù)據(jù)進行標定，再用余下的1261個出行者的數(shù)據(jù)進行驗證分析，得出預測規(guī)劃年的公交出行分擔率，從而得到相應的公交OD矩陣；最后根據(jù)巴彥淖爾市臨河區(qū)綜合交通規(guī)劃，選取主要公交通道利用TransCAD采用SUE模型進行客流分配，預測公交流量分配情況，計算各項評價指標。 本論文研究提出的公共交通需求預測的思路和方法，可以為中小城市公交發(fā)展規(guī)劃提供一定的借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:Urban public transport system is an indispensable part of urban traffic and even the whole urban system. With the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid growth of population, urban public transport is becoming more and more serious. In this context, it is very important to improve the efficiency of public transport system and to build a competitive public transport network with private cars. To this end, the Ministry of Transport started the public transport urban construction demonstration project. Comprehensive public transportation investigation and reasonable analysis and prediction of bus passenger flow can provide an important basis for scientific bus route planning. This paper investigates the travel of residents in Linhe District of Bayannur City, and makes an objective and reasonable prediction of urban economic indicators by using the combination of trend extrapolation method, growth rate method and exponential smoothing method. Based on the investigation of public transport operation and other information such as land use and road network, the basic data set of public transport is established, and the demand of bus passenger flow in Linhe District of Bayannur City is predicted reasonably by using the traditional four-stage method. Firstly, the distribution of urban population is analyzed, the population of each district in planning year is planned, and the relationship between different population attributes and travel times is used to establish the type analysis model to get the total travel quantity of residents, while the medium and long term population is combined with urban population. The relation between land use and traffic demand is used to predict the total amount, and the high precision double constraint gravity model is used to predict the traffic distribution, and the all-mode OD matrix is obtained. Then the disaggregate theory is used to analyze and model the travel attributes, personal attributes and family attributes that affect the residents' travel choice. Among them, the random data of 5000 travelers are used to calibrate. Then using the data of the remaining 1261 travelers to verify and analyze, we can get the public transport travel share rate in the predicted planning year, and then get the corresponding bus OD matrix. Finally, according to the comprehensive traffic planning of Linhe District of Bayannur City, The main public transport channels are selected to use TransCAD to distribute passenger flow using SUE model, to predict the distribution of public traffic flow and to calculate the evaluation indexes. In this paper, the thought and method of public transport demand prediction can be used for reference in the development planning of public transport in small and medium-sized cities.
【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.17;U492.413
本文編號：2248614
[Abstract]:Urban public transport system is an indispensable part of urban traffic and even the whole urban system. With the acceleration of urbanization and the rapid growth of population, urban public transport is becoming more and more serious. In this context, it is very important to improve the efficiency of public transport system and to build a competitive public transport network with private cars. To this end, the Ministry of Transport started the public transport urban construction demonstration project. Comprehensive public transportation investigation and reasonable analysis and prediction of bus passenger flow can provide an important basis for scientific bus route planning. This paper investigates the travel of residents in Linhe District of Bayannur City, and makes an objective and reasonable prediction of urban economic indicators by using the combination of trend extrapolation method, growth rate method and exponential smoothing method. Based on the investigation of public transport operation and other information such as land use and road network, the basic data set of public transport is established, and the demand of bus passenger flow in Linhe District of Bayannur City is predicted reasonably by using the traditional four-stage method. Firstly, the distribution of urban population is analyzed, the population of each district in planning year is planned, and the relationship between different population attributes and travel times is used to establish the type analysis model to get the total travel quantity of residents, while the medium and long term population is combined with urban population. The relation between land use and traffic demand is used to predict the total amount, and the high precision double constraint gravity model is used to predict the traffic distribution, and the all-mode OD matrix is obtained. Then the disaggregate theory is used to analyze and model the travel attributes, personal attributes and family attributes that affect the residents' travel choice. Among them, the random data of 5000 travelers are used to calibrate. Then using the data of the remaining 1261 travelers to verify and analyze, we can get the public transport travel share rate in the predicted planning year, and then get the corresponding bus OD matrix. Finally, according to the comprehensive traffic planning of Linhe District of Bayannur City, The main public transport channels are selected to use TransCAD to distribute passenger flow using SUE model, to predict the distribution of public traffic flow and to calculate the evaluation indexes. In this paper, the thought and method of public transport demand prediction can be used for reference in the development planning of public transport in small and medium-sized cities.
【學位授予單位】：長安大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.17;U492.413
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