本文選題：危險品道路運輸 + 層次分析　； 參考：《安全與環(huán)境工程》2014年06期

【摘要】：考慮到我國現(xiàn)階段可利用的危險品道路運輸事故的歷史數(shù)據(jù)十分有限,本文結(jié)合特定路段的實際情況,基于層次分析法和二級模糊綜合評價法,建立了一種新的危險品道路運輸事故概率評估方法。首先利用層次分析法,除了對特定路段的危險品、駕駛?cè)藛T、運輸車輛及罐體、道路及環(huán)境以及道路實時管理等常規(guī)影響因素進行更全面的分析外,還首次引入人為故意破壞等特殊影響因素,并根據(jù)各因素在危險品道路運輸事故中的影響大小,采用1~9標度法確定各影響因素的權(quán)重;然后根據(jù)模糊數(shù)學理論,建立不同影響因素的隸屬度函數(shù);最后通過二級模糊綜合評價形成危險品道路運輸事故概率評估計算方法。通過實例研究表明,該方法可為危險品道路運輸事故概率評估研究提供新的思路,為特定區(qū)域危險品道路運輸風險管理工作的開展和評估提供指導(dǎo),也有助于危險品運輸管理決策支持系統(tǒng)的開發(fā)。
[Abstract]:Considering the limited historical data of road transportation accidents of dangerous goods available in our country at the present stage, this paper combines the actual situation of specific sections of roads, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the two-stage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. A new method for evaluating the probability of road traffic accidents of dangerous goods is established. First of all, the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is used to analyze more comprehensively the conventional influencing factors, such as dangerous goods, drivers, transport vehicles and tanks, roads and environment, and real-time management of roads. It is also the first time to introduce some special factors, such as intentional destruction, and to determine the weight of each factor according to the influence of each factor in the road transportation accident of dangerous goods, and then according to the theory of fuzzy mathematics, The membership function of different influencing factors is established, and the probability evaluation method of dangerous goods road transportation accident is formed through the two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The case study shows that this method can provide a new idea for the study of the probability assessment of dangerous goods road transport accidents, and provide guidance for the development and evaluation of dangerous goods road transport risk management in specific regions. It is also helpful to the development of dangerous goods transportation management decision support system.
【作者單位】： 南京大學環(huán)境學院;
【分類號】：U492.81

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本文編號：2006408