本文關(guān)鍵詞： LEAP模型 情景分析法 交通發(fā)展 能源需求　出處：《長安大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：目前，全球面臨著能源短缺，污染嚴(yán)重等多項(xiàng)環(huán)境問題，交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)作為能源消耗大戶，其環(huán)境問題尤為明顯。隨著國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，，交通需求量急劇增加，從而引發(fā)的能源需求量及污染物排放量也不斷攀升。交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)能源消耗及污染物排放占整個(gè)社會(huì)能源消耗及污染物排放的比例較大，且呈逐年上升的趨勢(shì)，建立低碳交通運(yùn)輸體系顯得尤為重要。 本文以北京市交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)為例，著重研究道路運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域的能源需求及污染物排放問題。首先，將道路運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域分為社會(huì)交通、城市公共交通、其他客運(yùn)、道路貨運(yùn)四個(gè)子部門；其次，以2011年為基準(zhǔn)年，參考2005-2010年的數(shù)據(jù)，通過灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型預(yù)測(cè)2020年北京市道路運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域的交通需求量；最后，結(jié)合LEAP模型對(duì)未來北京市道路運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域能源需求及污染物排放進(jìn)行情景模擬。模型設(shè)定了基準(zhǔn)情景和最佳情景，基準(zhǔn)情景作為參考情景，假設(shè)政府沒有采取任何節(jié)能減排措施來遏制道路運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域能源需求及污染物排放的增加，最佳情景作為樂觀情景，研究政府采取發(fā)展公共交通、推廣節(jié)能環(huán)保車、提高燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性等節(jié)能減排措施后道路運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域能源需求及污染物排放的變化。研究結(jié)果表明，2020年最佳情景比基準(zhǔn)情景節(jié)能達(dá)22.86%，CO2，NOX的排放量分別減少11.85%、8.66%。
[Abstract]:At present, the world is faced with many environmental problems, such as energy shortage, serious pollution and so on. As a large consumer of energy, the environmental problems of transportation industry are particularly obvious. With the rapid development of national economy, traffic demand increases sharply. As a result, the energy demand and pollutant emissions are also rising. Energy consumption and pollutant emissions in the transportation industry account for a large proportion of the energy consumption and pollutant emissions in the whole society, and the trend is increasing year by year. It is particularly important to establish a low-carbon transportation system. This paper takes the transportation industry of Beijing as an example to study the energy demand and pollutant emission in the field of road transportation. Firstly, the field of road transport is divided into social traffic, urban public transport, other passenger transport. Secondly, taking 2011 as the base year and referring to the data from 2005-2010, the traffic demand in Beijing on 2020 is forecasted by grey forecast model. Finally, Based on the LEAP model, the future energy demand and pollutant emission in Beijing road transportation are simulated. The model sets up the baseline scenario and the best scenario, and the benchmark scenario is used as the reference scenario. Assuming that the government has not taken any energy conservation measures to curb the increase in energy demand and pollutant emissions in road transport, the best scenario is to study the government's efforts to develop public transport and promote energy-efficient and environmentally friendly vehicles as an optimistic scenario. The change of energy demand and pollutant emission in road transportation field after improving fuel economy and other measures of energy saving and emission reduction. The results show that in 2020, the best scenario can save energy by 11.85% and 8.66%, respectively, when compared with the baseline scenario, which can save energy by 22.86% and reduce the emission of CO _ (2) O _ (2) O _ (2).
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U49;X734

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