本文關(guān)鍵詞：平行交通系統(tǒng)的可信度評估方法研究　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 平行交通系統(tǒng) 可信度 評估模型 預(yù)測模型 計(jì)算實(shí)驗(yàn)

【摘要】：摘要：在平行交通系統(tǒng)中,可信度是指人工交通系統(tǒng)和實(shí)際交通系統(tǒng)的一致性程度�？尚哦仍u估對平行交通系統(tǒng)的開發(fā)和應(yīng)用具有重要意義。只有保證平行交通系統(tǒng)具有足夠可信度,最終得到的結(jié)果才具有實(shí)際應(yīng)用的價(jià)值和意義。但是目前,平行交通系統(tǒng)領(lǐng)域內(nèi)關(guān)于可信度的研究還寥寥無幾。在此背景之下,本文在平行系統(tǒng)的ACP方法體系(人工系統(tǒng)、計(jì)算實(shí)驗(yàn)、平行執(zhí)行)的理論基礎(chǔ)上,提出了一種基于區(qū)間二型模糊邏輯的平行交通系統(tǒng)可信度評估方法。這種評估方法以區(qū)間二型模糊邏輯建立的預(yù)測模型為基礎(chǔ),結(jié)合平行交通系統(tǒng)的計(jì)算實(shí)驗(yàn),組成了整個評估模型,并實(shí)現(xiàn)了對平行交通系統(tǒng)的可信度評估。 本文的研究工作主要為以下幾方面： 介紹了平行交通系統(tǒng)的思想、所包含的內(nèi)容以及其結(jié)構(gòu)體系；闡述了可信度和可信度評估方法；提出并確定了平行交通系統(tǒng)中可信度的概念及研究方法。 建立了基于區(qū)間二型模糊集合的評估模型。本文的評估模型是一種“預(yù)測加比較”的體系結(jié)構(gòu),其以實(shí)際系統(tǒng)的預(yù)測模型為基礎(chǔ)和關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié),利用二型模糊邏輯的相關(guān)理論建立了實(shí)際系統(tǒng)的預(yù)測模型,然后根據(jù)預(yù)測模型產(chǎn)生的預(yù)測區(qū)間和計(jì)算實(shí)驗(yàn)所得數(shù)據(jù)相比較,成功建立了平行交通的可信度評估模型。 將評估模型應(yīng)用到公交車乘客平均候車時(shí)間的計(jì)算實(shí)驗(yàn)中。本文對平行交通系統(tǒng)中平均候車時(shí)間這一關(guān)鍵問題進(jìn)行了計(jì)算實(shí)驗(yàn),通過多次實(shí)驗(yàn)得到了不同的實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果,利用實(shí)際系統(tǒng)的預(yù)測區(qū)間對實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了誤差分析,并嘗試?yán)谜`差反饋來調(diào)節(jié)人工交通系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部參數(shù)。 仿真結(jié)果表明,基于區(qū)間二型模糊集合的評估模型在平行系統(tǒng)的可信度評估工作中是適用的,并取得了一定的成果。同時(shí),正確適當(dāng)?shù)恼{(diào)節(jié)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部參數(shù)可減小平行系統(tǒng)的輸出誤差,從一定程度上實(shí)現(xiàn)了誤差反饋調(diào)節(jié)功能。
[Abstract]:Absrtact: in parallel traffic systems. Credibility refers to the degree of consistency between artificial traffic system and actual traffic system. Reliability evaluation is of great significance to the development and application of parallel traffic system. Only to ensure that parallel traffic system has sufficient credibility. The final results have practical value and significance. However, there are few researches on credibility in the field of parallel traffic system. This paper is based on the theory of ACP method system (manual system, computational experiment, parallel execution) of parallel system. A reliability evaluation method for parallel traffic systems based on interval 2 fuzzy logic is proposed. The evaluation method is based on the prediction model established by interval 2 fuzzy logic and combined with parallel traffic system calculation experiments. The whole evaluation model is formed, and the reliability evaluation of parallel traffic system is realized. The main work of this paper is as follows: This paper introduces the idea of parallel traffic system, its contents and its structure system, expounds the reliability and reliability evaluation methods, and puts forward and determines the concept and research method of reliability in parallel traffic system. An evaluation model based on interval type 2 fuzzy set is established. The evaluation model in this paper is a "prediction plus comparison" architecture, which is based on the prediction model of the actual system and the key link. The prediction model of the actual system is established by using the theory of type 2 fuzzy logic, and then the prediction interval generated by the prediction model is compared with the data obtained from the calculation experiment. The reliability evaluation model of parallel traffic is established successfully. The evaluation model is applied to the calculation experiment of the average waiting time of bus passengers. In this paper, the key problem of the average waiting time in parallel traffic system is calculated. Different experimental results are obtained through several experiments. The error analysis of the experimental results is carried out by using the prediction interval of the actual system, and the error feedback is used to adjust the internal parameters of the artificial traffic system. The simulation results show that the evaluation model based on interval type 2 fuzzy sets is applicable to the reliability evaluation of parallel systems and has achieved certain results. The output error of the parallel system can be reduced by adjusting the internal parameters of the system correctly and properly, and the error feedback regulation function is realized to a certain extent.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491

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