本文關(guān)鍵詞： 液氯 泄漏事故 動(dòng)態(tài)演化 人群疏散 物資調(diào)配 救援決策　出處：《重慶科技學(xué)院》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：化工行業(yè)液氯泄漏事故屬于高危突發(fā)事故，且針對(duì)該事故的救援行動(dòng)方案復(fù)雜多樣，文中主要討論液氯泄漏事故的演化過程、最佳疏散路徑以及救援物資調(diào)配方案，以期為救援決策人員提供科學(xué)的救援方案。具體研究?jī)?nèi)容如下： （1）分析目前已提出的多米諾演化模型、能量釋放模型、動(dòng)力學(xué)演化模型和突變演化四種演化模型，構(gòu)建更加符合重慶天原化工4.16氯氣泄漏事故動(dòng)態(tài)演化概念模型，并在該模型的指導(dǎo)下定性分析重慶天原化工液氯泄漏事故的演化過程。 （2）運(yùn)用Matlab軟件對(duì)泄漏液氯擴(kuò)散演化過程進(jìn)行實(shí)時(shí)模擬。在模擬過程中通過設(shè)定不同風(fēng)速（1.5m/s、2.5m/s、3.5m/s），不同大氣穩(wěn)定度（A、C、E），不同時(shí)間（30s、60s、90s、120s、150s、180s）和不同泄漏條件（瞬時(shí)泄漏、連續(xù)泄漏），得出不同風(fēng)速、不同大氣穩(wěn)定度、不同時(shí)間、不同泄漏方式的演化趨勢(shì)。演化趨勢(shì)結(jié)果表明：下風(fēng)向泄漏氯氣在地面濃度的演變過程受風(fēng)速、大氣穩(wěn)定度、時(shí)間、泄漏方式四種因素共同影響。 （3）根據(jù)氯氣對(duì)人體的傷害標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，分別劃分出吸入反應(yīng)區(qū)（0.003mg/L）、輕傷區(qū)（0.01mg/L）、重傷區(qū)（0.04mg/L）、致死區(qū)(0.1mg/L)四個(gè)致災(zāi)濃度的覆蓋區(qū)域，并分別分析風(fēng)速、大氣穩(wěn)定度對(duì)下風(fēng)向?yàn)?zāi)害范圍的影響程度。 （4）同時(shí)考慮疏散時(shí)間和道路通行速度兩個(gè)因素，建立雙目標(biāo)優(yōu)化條件下疏散路徑的選擇模型，模型考慮事故發(fā)生時(shí)由于人群恐慌而導(dǎo)致通行速度減慢這一影響因素，在一定范圍內(nèi)隨機(jī)給出速度衰減參數(shù)，并設(shè)計(jì)求解該模型的蟻群優(yōu)化算法。 （5）以重慶天原化工廠泄漏事故為實(shí)例應(yīng)用，劃分出該事故的疏散區(qū)域，將疏散區(qū)域的路網(wǎng)通行信息物理模型轉(zhuǎn)化為蟻群算法數(shù)學(xué)模型，計(jì)算出上午10時(shí)和下午17時(shí)的疏散區(qū)域內(nèi)的最佳疏散路徑、疏散通行時(shí)間和通行距離。 （6）以調(diào)度時(shí)間最短、出救點(diǎn)最少和調(diào)度費(fèi)用最小為目標(biāo)，建立物資調(diào)配優(yōu)化模型。在求解過程中考慮各個(gè)子目標(biāo)之間的度量單位、優(yōu)先程度和權(quán)重系數(shù)，以目標(biāo)規(guī)劃法將模型中的多目標(biāo)函數(shù)轉(zhuǎn)化為單目標(biāo)函數(shù)。利用Matlab工具箱中的優(yōu)化函數(shù)編程實(shí)現(xiàn)了模型求解，，通過實(shí)例分析確定物資調(diào)配最佳方案。
[Abstract]:The liquid chlorine leakage accident in chemical industry is a high-risk accident, and the rescue action plan for the accident is complex and diverse. This paper mainly discusses the evolution process of the liquid chlorine leakage accident. The best evacuation path and the relief material allocation plan, in order to provide the scientific rescue plan for the rescue decision-making personnel. The specific research contents are as follows: 1) analyze the domino evolution model, energy release model, dynamic evolution model and catastrophe evolution model. The conceptual model of dynamic evolution of chlorine leakage accident in Chongqing Tianyuan chemical industry is constructed, and the evolution process of liquid chlorine leakage accident in Chongqing Tianyuan chemical industry is analyzed qualitatively under the guidance of this model. (2) using Matlab software to simulate the evolution process of leakage liquid chlorine diffusion in real time. In the simulation process, different wind speeds are set at 1.5 m / s / s ~ 2.5 m / s / s ~ 3.5 m / s). Different atmospheric stability and different leakage conditions (instantaneous leakage and continuous leakage) are observed. The evolution trend of different wind speed, different atmospheric stability, different time and different leakage mode is obtained. The result shows that the evolution process of downwind leakage chlorine concentration in the ground is affected by wind speed and atmospheric stability. Time, leakage mode of four factors together. According to the standard of chlorine damage to human body, the inhaled reaction area was 0.003 mg / L, the light injury area was 0.01 mg / L, and the serious injury area was 0.04 mg / L). The lethal area is 0.1 mg 路L ~ (-1), and the influence of wind speed and atmospheric stability on the downwind disaster range is analyzed. At the same time, considering the two factors of evacuation time and road speed, the model of evacuation path selection under the condition of double objective optimization is established. Considering the influence factor of slow down of traffic speed caused by crowd panic when the accident occurred, the velocity attenuation parameters were given randomly in a certain range, and the ant colony optimization algorithm was designed to solve the model. Taking the accident of Chongqing Tianyuan Chemical Plant as an example, the evacuation area of the accident is divided, and the physical model of road information in the evacuation area is transformed into the mathematical model of ant colony algorithm. At 10:00 and 17:00 in the morning, the optimal evacuation path, evacuation time and distance are calculated. Taking the shortest scheduling time, the least rescue point and the minimum scheduling cost as the target, the optimization model of material allocation is established. The unit of measurement, priority degree and weight coefficient among the sub-objectives are considered in the process of solving the problem. The multi-objective function in the model is transformed into a single-objective function by the method of objective programming, and the optimization function in the Matlab toolbox is used to realize the solution of the model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶科技學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TQ086

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