【摘要】：基于政府間氣候變化委員會(huì)第四次評(píng)估報(bào)告(IPCC AR4)海氣耦合模式模擬實(shí)驗(yàn),本文利用POM (Princeton Ocean Model)基礎(chǔ)之上建立的東中國(guó)海區(qū)域模型,研究黃海動(dòng)力環(huán)境在RCP4.5未來情景下,對(duì)氣候變化的響應(yīng)。首先對(duì)耦合模式進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果顯示,各模式能較好的模擬東亞地區(qū)的氣候態(tài)特征,如：冬、夏季盛行風(fēng)向,降水、熱通量的季節(jié)和海陸分布特征等。四個(gè)海氣耦合模型模擬結(jié)果對(duì)比顯示,在RCP4.5情景下,未來東亞季風(fēng)區(qū)冬季風(fēng)變?nèi)?夏季風(fēng)變強(qiáng),熱通量全年增加。以各海氣耦合模式模擬的氣候態(tài)結(jié)果作為大氣強(qiáng)迫分別驅(qū)動(dòng)POM模型,所得模擬結(jié)果較為一致,且通過與歷史資料對(duì)比驗(yàn)證顯示,模式結(jié)果能較好的模擬出黃�；舅奶卣�,如：準(zhǔn)確的模擬了10℃等溫線包絡(luò)范圍的季節(jié)變化特征,35°N斷面水溫季節(jié)分布特征以及黃海冷水團(tuán)生消變化特征等。其中,35°N斷面水溫的模擬結(jié)果除5月份偏高外(這是由于風(fēng)場(chǎng)分辨率較低引起的),其他季節(jié)的模擬結(jié)果均能較好的把握住水溫分布特征,驗(yàn)證了模式結(jié)果的可信性。 以各耦合氣候模擬作為強(qiáng)迫,模擬未來黃海動(dòng)力環(huán)境對(duì)于氣候變化的響應(yīng),POM模型模擬結(jié)果具有很好的一致性。RCP4.5情景下,未來黃海水溫全年增加,增加幅度在2℃左右,冬季,黃海暖水增溫以GFDL-CM3的模擬結(jié)果幅度最大,為2.99℃,而四個(gè)模式的平均結(jié)果為2.2℃左右,造成這一結(jié)果的直接原因是海氣熱交換量增加。這是由于冬季季風(fēng)減弱,使得蒸發(fā)潛熱量減少,海水失去熱量降低,最終導(dǎo)致海水溫度升高。而黃海冷水團(tuán)是前一年冬季黃�；旌虾蠛Ｋ摹皻埩簟�,所以必然會(huì)受到該變化的影響。通過計(jì)算底層8℃等溫線包絡(luò)水體面積和最低水溫的變化來確定黃海冷水團(tuán)的變化情況,計(jì)算結(jié)果顯示,冷水團(tuán)面積平均減少46.8%,而中心冷水溫度升高幅度以GFDL-CM3模擬的結(jié)果最大,溫度升高2.44℃,而四個(gè)模式模擬的平均升溫幅度也達(dá)到1.88℃；在冬季風(fēng)減弱的情況下,具有補(bǔ)償性質(zhì)的黃海暖流也相應(yīng)減弱,這可以通過側(cè)向熱量輸送減少得到佐證,同時(shí)表層流和沿岸流也減弱。
[Abstract]:Based on the model simulation experiment of the fourth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC AR4), this paper studies the dynamic environment of Huang Hai in the future scenario of RCP 4.5 using the regional model of the East China Sea based on the Huang Hai (Princeton Ocean Model). Response to climate change The results show that each model can well simulate the climate characteristics of East Asia, such as winter, summer prevailing wind direction, precipitation, heat flux season and sea and land distribution characteristics and so on. The simulation results of four air-sea coupling models show that in the RCP 4.5 scenario, the winter monsoon in the future East Asian monsoon region will become weaker, the summer monsoon will become stronger, and the heat flux will increase throughout the year. The model is driven by the climate state of each coupled ocean-atmosphere model as atmospheric forcing. The simulation results are consistent, and the comparison with the historical data shows that the model results can well simulate the basic hydrological characteristics of Huang Hai. For example, the seasonal variation characteristics of the envelope range of 10 鈩，

本文編號(hào)：2125672