本文選題：沿�？稍偕茉� + 能源結構優(yōu)化��； 參考：《大連理工大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：2012年我國能源消費量一舉超過美國,成為世界上最大的能源消費國。我國能源消費結構中70%以上為煤炭,90%為化石能源,由此帶來的環(huán)境問題和可持續(xù)發(fā)展問題日益突出。近年來我國在積極規(guī)劃調(diào)整能源結構比例,倡導開發(fā)可再生能源,優(yōu)化能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。沿海地區(qū)經(jīng)濟相對發(fā)達,能源需求量大,但傳統(tǒng)能源十分稀缺且環(huán)境承載力弱。沿海地區(qū)具有海上風能、潮汐等沿�？稍偕茉磧�(yōu)勢,合理開發(fā)利用沿海可再生能源不僅能優(yōu)化能源供給結構,而且能減輕地區(qū)環(huán)境壓力,改善沿海地區(qū)能源結構的優(yōu)良性。針對以上問題,本文探討了沿海可再生能源結構優(yōu)化評價指標體系,在此基礎上研究沿�？稍偕茉唇Y構綜合評價與結構優(yōu)化模型,并以大連為例進行研究,具體內(nèi)容如下：首先,指標體系構建研究。在各種沿�？稍偕茉吹奶攸c分析的基礎上,建立了沿海可再生能源指標體系,包括能源稟賦、經(jīng)濟、技術、環(huán)境、安全等五個方面,其中包括開發(fā)利用時間、能源轉(zhuǎn)換效率、能源公司個數(shù)、開發(fā)成本、人均工資、生態(tài)影響指數(shù)、碳排放量、開發(fā)危險指數(shù)、開發(fā)可控指數(shù)在內(nèi)的多個指標。其次,綜合評價研究。根據(jù)評價指標的含義,調(diào)研了大連地區(qū)2010、2014、2020年潮汐能、潮流能、沿海風能、生物質(zhì)能、太陽能等能源指標。利用因子分析法對標準化后的指標數(shù)據(jù)進行綜合分析,獲取四個綜合因子(經(jīng)濟因子、技術因子、環(huán)境因子、安全因子)及其因子得分。指標對綜合因子的方差貢獻率大于75%,可以反映原樣本空間的大部分信息。通過綜合因子和指標數(shù)據(jù)對大連市2014年和2020年的沿�？稍偕茉唇Y構進行評價,分別得到了考慮綜合因子的能源開發(fā)利用優(yōu)先順序。綜合因子得分將用于能源開發(fā)結構優(yōu)化求解。再次,結構優(yōu)化模型研究�；跇嫿ǖ闹笜梭w系及其綜合因子建立了以經(jīng)濟效益、碳排放、開發(fā)比例三者綜合效益最大為目標的沿海可再生能源結構多目標優(yōu)化模型,約束條件考慮綜合因子和關鍵指標約束。模型引入目標函數(shù)和約束條件的控制系數(shù),提高了模型的適用性,且有利于發(fā)揮決策者的主觀能動性。最后,以大連為例進行實證研究。基于大連地區(qū)的調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù),構建大連地區(qū)的沿�？稍偕茉唇Y構優(yōu)化模型并利用CPLEX進行求解,得到了2020年大連地區(qū)的沿海可再生能源結構,與已有模型進行對比分析,驗證了模型的有效性；基于以上模型,分別優(yōu)化了以經(jīng)濟效益、環(huán)境效益和綜合效益為首要目標的三種情景下,2020年大連地區(qū)沿�？稍偕茉唇Y構配比及各能源的開發(fā)量。研究成果可為大連沿�？稍偕茉撮_發(fā)利用政策制定的參考。
[Abstract]:In 2012, China's energy consumption surpassed that of the United States and became the largest energy consumer in the world. More than 70% of the energy consumption structure in China is fossil energy, and the environmental problems and sustainable development problems are becoming more and more prominent. In recent years, China is actively planning to adjust the proportion of energy structure, advocate the development of renewable energy, optimize energy development strategy. The coastal areas have developed economy and large energy demand, but the traditional energy is very scarce and the environmental carrying capacity is weak. Coastal areas have the advantages of offshore renewable energy such as wind energy and tidal energy. Reasonable exploitation and utilization of coastal renewable energy can not only optimize the energy supply structure but also alleviate the regional environmental pressure and improve the excellent energy structure of coastal areas. In view of the above problems, this paper discusses the evaluation index system of coastal renewable energy structure optimization, and on this basis studies the comprehensive evaluation and structural optimization model of coastal renewable energy structure, and takes Dalian as an example. The specific contents are as follows: first, the index system construction research. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of various coastal renewable energy sources, a coastal renewable energy index system has been established, which includes five aspects: energy endowment, economy, technology, environment and safety, including development and utilization time, energy conversion efficiency, etc. The number of energy companies, development costs, per capita wages, ecological impact index, carbon emissions, development risk index, development controllable index. Secondly, comprehensive evaluation research. According to the meaning of the evaluation index, the energy indexes such as tidal energy, coastal wind energy, biomass energy, solar energy and so on in Dalian are investigated. Four factors (economic factor, technical factor, environmental factor, safety factor) and their scores were obtained by comprehensive analysis of standardized index data by factor analysis. The variance contribution rate of the index to the synthetic factor is more than 75, which can reflect most of the information in the original space. The renewable energy structure of Dalian in 2014 and 2020 was evaluated by comprehensive factor and index data, and the priority order of energy development and utilization considering comprehensive factors was obtained respectively. The comprehensive factor score will be used to solve the optimization of energy development structure. Thirdly, the structure optimization model is studied. Based on the index system and its comprehensive factors, a multi-objective optimization model of coastal renewable energy structure is established, which aims at the maximum comprehensive benefit of economic benefit, carbon emission and development ratio. Constraints take into account comprehensive factors and key index constraints. The model introduces the objective function and the control coefficient of the constraint condition, which improves the applicability of the model and is helpful to give full play to the subjective initiative of the decision maker. Finally, take Dalian as an example to carry on the empirical research. Based on the investigation data of Dalian area, the optimization model of coastal renewable energy structure in Dalian area is constructed and solved by using CPLEX, and the coastal renewable energy structure of Dalian area in 2020 is obtained, which is compared with the existing model. The validity of the model is verified, and based on the above model, three scenarios with economic benefit, environmental benefit and comprehensive benefit as the primary objectives are optimized, and the ratio of renewable energy structure and the amount of energy development in Dalian coastal area in 2020 are optimized. The research results can be used as a reference for the development and utilization of renewable energy in Dalian coastal area.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P743

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本文編號：1925293