垃圾焚燒發(fā)電BOT項目收益的系統(tǒng)動力學模型
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-12 07:49
【摘要】：在垃圾焚燒發(fā)電BOT項目的前期決策中,項目收益是政府和項目公司展開談判的基礎問題。通過對此類項目收益系統(tǒng)的影響因素分析,基于系統(tǒng)動力學方法構建了項目收益模型,并運用模糊邏輯方法研究了地區(qū)經濟發(fā)展水平和政府履約程度等定性因素對模型的影響。在此基礎上,運用系統(tǒng)動力學分析軟件Vensim PLE和MATLAB軟件中的模糊邏輯工具箱,對垃圾焚燒發(fā)電BOT項目案例進行模擬。根據(jù)項目收益變化情況的模擬結果,討論了在政府部門和項目公司各自期望的收益水平下特許期和特許價格的合理決策,并分析了特許期、特許價格和垃圾熱值變化對項目收益的影響,從而為政府和項目公司運作垃圾焚燒發(fā)電BOT項目提供了決策參考。
[Abstract]:In the early decision of the BOT project of MSW incineration power generation, the project income is the basis of the negotiation between the government and the project company. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of this kind of project income system, the project income model is constructed based on the system dynamics method, and the influence of qualitative factors, such as the level of regional economic development and the degree of government performance, on the model is studied by using the fuzzy logic method. On this basis, the case study of MSW incineration power generation BOT project is carried out by using the system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE and the fuzzy logic toolbox in MATLAB software. According to the simulation results of the change of the project income, the reasonable decision of the concession period and the concession price under the expected income level of the government department and the project company are discussed, and the concession period is analyzed. The effect of the change of the concession price and the waste calorific value on the benefit of the project provides a decision reference for the government and the project company to operate the BOT project of MSW incineration power generation.
【作者單位】： 大連理工大學工商管理學院;遼寧科技大學工商管理學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目(71072107;71272091;71472022) 遼寧省高等學校優(yōu)秀人才支持計劃(LJQ2013011) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務費專項資金項目(DUT14RW210)
【分類號】：TM619
[Abstract]:In the early decision of the BOT project of MSW incineration power generation, the project income is the basis of the negotiation between the government and the project company. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of this kind of project income system, the project income model is constructed based on the system dynamics method, and the influence of qualitative factors, such as the level of regional economic development and the degree of government performance, on the model is studied by using the fuzzy logic method. On this basis, the case study of MSW incineration power generation BOT project is carried out by using the system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE and the fuzzy logic toolbox in MATLAB software. According to the simulation results of the change of the project income, the reasonable decision of the concession period and the concession price under the expected income level of the government department and the project company are discussed, and the concession period is analyzed. The effect of the change of the concession price and the waste calorific value on the benefit of the project provides a decision reference for the government and the project company to operate the BOT project of MSW incineration power generation.
【作者單位】： 大連理工大學工商管理學院;遼寧科技大學工商管理學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目(71072107;71272091;71472022) 遼寧省高等學校優(yōu)秀人才支持計劃(LJQ2013011) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務費專項資金項目(DUT14RW210)
【分類號】：TM619
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5 時t熇，
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